Daily International Grains Market View

Grains and oilseeds markets mostly were firmer.

Please note that, with Dec expiry rapidly approaching, we’ll be shifting to March futures as of tomorrow morning.

With the world once again worried about the impacts of coronavirus and lockdowns on the economy, questions are back about what the next set of stimulus measures may be.

There’s the practical reality that widespread vaccination won’t be feasible for at least several months yet.

EU stimulus remains hung up on non-economy related disputes while in the US existing programs are due to expire in coming weeks and no new deal looks to be in sight.

Updated CFTC positions as of Friday (reflecting Tuesday’s positions) reflected the choppier markets up to that point, with net longs easing back mostly across the board, as expected.

The next update will be delayed until next Monday given the US holiday this week.

New export sales flashes in the US had 158,000t of Mexican corn and 131,000t of unknown corn, which the bulls are taking as evidence that rumours of Chinese buying are accurate.

US cattle on feed figures out Friday had totals up just under 12 million. It is the largest November on record but with placements are sharply lower, down 11pc year-on-year.

Ongoing questions about kill capacity, potential closures and demand levels going into winter remain in play for cattle markets.

Strong canola crush margins (see Lachstock’s biweekly crush report for more details there) are getting more attraction across the ag markets with the ongoing bean rally.

Rising crusher demand for seed is grabbing headlines in Canada

Southern Brazil is seeing some nice moisture on the weather maps into next week, but dry outlooks across central soybean areas in Mato Grosso are more concerning to soybean markets.

The last week’s showers helped, but they certainly need more follow through.

Black Sea weather maps remain fairly dry but, with moderate temperatures so far, conditions are kicking along.

Concerns are still in play about the stressed and dry soils, but that’s been well known to markets and the question now is how crops will fare in the coming weeks.

Some surprise rainfall showers across parts of South Australia, Vic and NSW brought harvest to a stop in places over the weekend though we’re still looking at fairly good forecasts for the eastern states into this week.

Outside of the weather delays yields remain very positive across the Aussie east coast, with impressive figures coming off in NSW and early Vic harvests.

Sites through NSW now starting to fill very quickly with some segregations no longer open for receivals after hitting capacity.

The Australian market remained relatively unchanged leading into the weekend, with canola showing a tad more strength by a buck or 2 again.

Liquidity still flows from growers on the wheat, canola and barley front around the country.

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