US and Europe markets were closed on Good Friday.
Last week there was a big debate in the markets about US acreage/planting intentions.
Agricultural markets anticipated 93.21 million acres of corn (37.6 million hectares, or almost 1 Mha more) and 90 million acres of soybeans (36 , 4 million hectares, ie 1 Mha more).
The verdict of the US Department of Agriculture on US rotations for 2021, on the contrary, has fallen: 46.35 million acres in wheat, 91.44 million in corn and 87.6 million in soybeans, that is to say respectively 18.7 million hectares, 36.8 million and 35.3 million.
While the reported wheat figure was 2 million acres (805,000 ha) higher than the area sown last year and 1.38 million (555,000 ha) higher than market expectations.
All wheat planted acres in 2021 indeed, will be 46.4 million acres, up 5% (18.8 million hectares) compared to 2020.
Winter wheat acres are estimated at 33.1 million acres (13.4 million hectares), up 9 percent year-on-year.
While there was a small decline in spring wheat area.
The last several years the March intentions report, largely has proved an accurate indicator for later acreage figures, but it is by no means guaranteed to happen that way and moving markets do shift marginal acres.
In fact, despite the limit moves post report the other day, row crop markets traded back off last Thursday night with pressure from soybeans throughout the session.
CBOT corn futures, gained only 7 cents during the week to end at $5.59/bu and CBOT soybean futures were up only 2 cents to close at $14.02/bu, and this despite the big jumping of Wedsneday.
Wheat, on the contrary, struggled also to follow the rally, dropping on the week again as crop condition ratings improved.
CBOT soft red winter (SRW) futures, indeed, fell 2 cents to close at $6.11/bu.
KCBT hard red winter (HRW) futures lost 3 cents to end at $5.65/bu.
MGE hard red spring (HRS) futures dropped 14 cents to close at $5.99/bu.
However, we must note that except for the Texas and Colorado most wheat growing areas saw little or no rainfall for the week.
The Plains states remained dry with strong winds, and drought conditions expanded across parts of the Dakotas.
Dry conditions worsened also in eastern Washington.
About US wheat stocks, at March 1st, they were 35.76 Mt, against 34.6 Mt expected.
For corn, reserves have been reduced to 195.6 Mt (1.7 Mt below market expectations) and for soybeans, they stand at 42.57 Mt (consensus predicted 41.75 Mt).
From South America area, Argentine farmers are expected to plant over 7.0 million hectares of wheat in 2021/22, up 4% compared to 2020/21, announced the agriculture ministry.
The ministry also predicted that farmers could export as much as 14.0 MMT of wheat in 2021/22.
Meantime, weather maps for south/central Brazilian safrinha corn areas remain dry into the extended run forecasts.
From the Black sea basin, farmers in Ukraine are nearly a month behind their planting schedule that usually begins at the end of February as snow and wet conditions kept farmers out of their fields until the end of March.
Meantime, however, Ukraine’s economy minster said Ukraine will not reach its 17.5 MMT wheat quota this season following slower than expected wheat exports.
He noted, indeed, that exports are 500,000 MT behind the predicted forecast year-to-date.
Russian wheat farmers are also delayed with sow, but only by about ten days.
One analyst put planting 70% behind the same time last year but added that he is optimistic farmers can catch up.
Soviet Ag, meantime, raised Russia’s wheat production forecast to 79.3 MMT.
Meantime, Russia export tax implementation continues to move forward, with the Moscow Exchange publishing their new price indices for wheat, barley, and corn.
Taxes starting 1 June 2021 are based on a weekly average, but based on their latest US$282/t value wheat the tax works to the equivalent of $57/t.
Worth noting that the exchange claims it will be a two-month rolling average for the prices so there will be a substantial lag impact to the tax values.
In Europ, France’s winter wheat crop is rated 87 percent good or excellent, in line with the five-year average and well above the 63 percent good or excellent rating at this time last year.
Aussie BOM forecasts are still dry for most of the wheat belt into next week as we start moving into planting.
On the international trade scenario, Saudi Arabia’s SAGO is back tendering again, this time for wheat, five boats of old crop May/June.
They’re also reportedly still in the process of selling off their remaining two flourmills to the private sector, but at current it appears that SAGO will continue to provide subsidized wheat to private mills, for distribution domestically at subsidized values.
Egypt’s GASC is also back in the market again for wheat, the tender being held next week after Easter, for delivery FH April.
About energy futures, Crude lifted a bit during the week, to $61.5 WTI / $64.9 Brent despite OPEC announcing that they would gradually increase production into the middle of this year, as market betted on improved demand globally with the post corona recovery.
The DOW, on the contrary, was down 81 points during the week.
The U.S. Dollar Index increased from last week’s 92.76 to close at 93.02.
The Baltic Dry Index (BDI), an assessment of the average cost to ship raw materials such as grains, coal and iron ore, dropped 4 percent on the week to end at 2,072.
