Washington – 10:57AM Dec. 10, 2020
WHEAT
The outlook for 2020/21 U.S. wheat this month is for slightly smaller supplies, unchanged domestic use, higher exports, and lower ending stocks. Supplies are reduced on lower imports, which are decreased 5 million bushels to 120 million on a slower-than-expected pace. Exports are raised 10 million bushels to 985 million as higher white wheat exports are partially offset by lower Hard Red Winter (HRW) exports. Sales and shipments of white wheat have been robust this marketing year to several East Asian countries. Conversely, HRW exports have slowed for the past several weeks. Projected 2020/21 ending stocks are reduced 15 million bushels to 862 million, down 16 percent from last year. The season-average farm price is unchanged at $4.70 per bushel.
The 2020/21 global wheat outlook is for larger supplies, increased consumption, higher exports, and reduced stocks. Supplies are raised 1.2 million tons to 1,074.3 million on higher global production, which is now a new record at 773.7 million. Most of this month’s production increase is for Australia, which is raised 1.5 million tons to 30.0 million. This increase is partially based on the latest ABARES production forecast. Russia’s production is raised 500,000 tons to 84.0 million with the harvest results now complete. Canada’s wheat production is raised 0.2 million tons to 35.2 million on the final Statistics Canada estimate for the 2020/21 crop year. With this month’s production changes, Australia, Canada, and Russia all have their second largest wheat production on record.
World 2020/21 consumption is increased 5.1 million tons to 757.8 million, mostly on higher feed and residual use for China, Australia, and the EU. China is raised 3.0 million tons to 24.0 million, which would be its highest wheat feed and residual use since 2012/13. Increased wheat feed usage is expected as China’s domestic price premium of wheat over corn has narrowed significantly this year with greater supplies of old-crop wheat available through government auctions of grain stocks. Projected 2020/21 global trade is raised 2.9 million tons to 193.7 million on higher exports for Australia, Canada, Russia and the United States. The largest import increases this month are for China and Pakistan, each raised 500,000 tons. China’s import pace continues to be significantly higher than last year and at 8.5 million tons, imports would be the largest since 1995/96. Pakistan continues to actively import wheat to raise stocks in order to alleviate food price inflation concerns. Pakistan’s imports of 2.5 million tons would be its largest since 2008/09. Projected 2020/21 world ending stocks are lowered 3.9 million tons to 316.5 million but remain record high with China and India holding 51 and 10 percent of the total, respectively.
COARSE GRAINS
This month’s 2020/21 U.S. corn supply and use outlook is unchanged from last month. The projected season-average farm price is unchanged at $4.00 per bushel.
Global coarse grain production for 2020/21 is forecast virtually unchanged at 1,447.8 million tons. The 2020/21 foreign coarse grain outlook is for essentially unchanged production, greater trade, and smaller ending stocks relative to last month. Foreign corn production is forecast lower as an increase for Ukraine is more than offset by reductions for Argentina, the EU, and Canada. Argentina corn production is reduced based on lower expected area. Canada corn output is lowered as marginally higher area is more than offset by a reduction in yield. EU corn production is down mostly reflecting a smaller forecast for Bulgaria. Ukraine corn production is raised based on harvest results to date. Barley production is raised for Australia and Canada. Sorghum production is increased for Argentina.
Corn exports are raised for Ukraine but lowered for the EU. Imports are raised for China and Bangladesh, with partially offsetting reductions for the EU, Egypt, Iran, Morocco, and Tunisia. China’s sorghum and barley imports are projected higher, raising the country’s total coarse grain imports 4.8 million tons to 30.9 million. If realized, this would be record high and account for 14 percent of global coarse grain trade, slightly below the high seen during 2014/15. Foreign corn ending stocks for 2020/21 are reduced, mostly reflecting reductions for India, Brazil, Canada, Ukraine, and Egypt.
OILSEEDS
Total U.S. oilseed production for 2020/21 is projected at 123.7 million tons, down from last month on lower cottonseed production. Soybean crush for 2020/21 is increased 15 million bushels to 2.195 billion on strong crush margins and record early-season crush. With exports unchanged, soybean ending stocks for 2020/21 are projected at 175 million bushels. If realized, ending stocks would be the lowest since 2013/14.
Soybean and soybean product prices are forecast higher this month. The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2020/21 is projected at $10.55 per bushel, up 15 cents. The soybean meal price is projected at $370 per short ton, up 15 dollars. The soybean oil price is forecast at 36 cents per pound, up 1.5 cents with cash prices reaching the highest level in the past six years.
The 2020/21 global oilseed supply and demand forecasts include lower production, higher exports, and lower ending stocks. Global oilseed production is projected at 595.7 million tons, down 1.6 million from last month, with lower soybeans, rapeseed, sunflowerseed, and cottonseed. Global soybean production is projected down 0.6 million tons to 362.1 million. Higher soybean crops for Canada and Uruguay are offset by lower production for Argentina, which is reduced 1 million tons to 50 million on lower harvested area. Lower production for Argentina leads to lower crush and soybean meal exports, supporting higher U.S. exports. Global rapeseed production is projected lower as reduced estimates for Canada and the EU are partly offset by a larger Australian crop. Global sunflowerseed production is projected down 0.2 million tons to 49.5 million, with lower crops for Argentina and the EU.
Global oilseed trade for 2020/21 is projected at 191.8 million tons, up 1.0 million from last month. Increased soybean exports for Canada and Uruguay and increased rapeseed exports for Canada and Australia account for most of the gains. Global oilseed ending stocks are projected at 97.8 million tons, down 0.8 million from last month.
By USDA
