WASHINGTON – July 12, 2022
The outlook for 22/23 U.S. wheat this month saw the production up by 44 million bu. to 1,781 million, on an increase in harvested area and higher yields.
Particularly, winter wheat prod. is seen at 1.20 billion bu., up 2% from June, but down 6% from 2021.
The US yield is now at 48.0 bu/acre, down 0.2 bu from last month and down 2.2 bu from last year’s average yield.
Area expected to be harvested totals 25.0 million acres, unchanged from June 30.
Hard Red Winter prod., at 585 million bu, is up 1% from last month.
Soft Red Winter, at 376 million bu, is up 5% from June.
White Winter, at 240 million bu, is down 1%.
Of the White Winter prod., 15.1 million bu are Hard White and 225 million bu are Soft White.
Durum wheat production is forecast at 77.2 million bu, up 107% from ’21.
Yields are expected to average 40.3 bu/acre, up 16.0 bu from ’21.
Total area is 1.92 million acres, unchanged from June, but up 25% from ’21.
Other spring wheat prod. is forecast at 503 million bu, up 52% from last year.
Yields are expected to average 47.0 bu/acre, up 14.4 bu from ’21. Area harvested is expected to total 10.7 million acres, unchanged from June, but 5% above 2021.
Of the total prod., 457 million bu are Hard Red Spring wheat, up 54% from 2021.
The 2022/23 export forecast is raised 25 million bu. to 800 million as the recent decline in U.S. prices makes exports more competitive in international markets.
The projected season-average farm price is lowered $0.25 per bushel to $10.50 on declines in futures and cash prices.
The 22/23 global wheat outlook is for fewer supplies, reduced consumption, higher exports and increased stocks.
Supplies are reduced 1.1 MMT to 1,051.7 MMT as less prod. is partially offset by larger beginning stocks.
Production is revised lower for the EU, Ukraine and Argentina, which is only partially offset by upward revisions for Canada, the United States, and Russia.
EU production is lowered 2.0 MMT to 134.1 MMT, as ongoing dry weather lowered yield prospects primarily in Spain, Italy and Germany.
Ukraine production is lowered 2.0 MMT to 19.5 MMT on a reduction in harvested area.
Production in Canada is increased 1.0 MMT to 34.0 MMT on the Statistics Canada Principal Field Crop Areas survey showing higher planted area than intentions.
Projected 22/23 globaltrade is raised 0.9 MMT to 205.5 MMT as higher exports from Canada and the United States are only partially offset by lower exports from Argentina and the EU.
World consumption is lowered 1.8 MMT to 784.2 MMT, primarily on reduced feed and residual use in the EU and Ukraine.
Projected 22/23 world ending stocks are raised 0.7 MMT to 267.5 MMT but remain the lowest since 2016/17.
