Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board
WASHINGTON – June 10, 2022
The outlook for 2022/23 U.S. wheat this month is for increased supplies, unchanged domestic use and exports, and higher stocks.
Supplies are raised on higher production with all wheat production projected at 1,737 million bushels, up 8 million from last month.
NASS raised winter wheat production to 1,182 million bushels as increases for Soft Red Winter and White Winter more than offset a reduction for Hard Red Winter.
The all wheat yield is 46.9 bushels per acre, up 0.3 bushels from last month.
Projected 2022/23 ending stocks are raised 8 million bushels to 627 million, still down 4% from 2021/22.
The projected 2022/23 season-average farm price is unchanged at $10.75 per bushel, compared to $7.70 for 2021/22.
The global wheat outlook for 2022/23 is for lower supplies, reduced consumption, fractionally lower trade, and slightly lower ending stocks.
Supplies are decreased by 1.7 million tons to 1,052.8 million as lower India production more than offsets an increase for Russia.
India’s production is lowered 2.5 million tons to 106.0 million as extreme temperatures in March and April reduced yields during grain fill.
Russia’s production is raised 1.0 million tons to 81.0 million with all of the increase in winter wheat on generally favorable weather conditions to date.
Projected 2022/23 world consumption is reduced 1.5 million tons to 786.0 million mainly on lower feed and residual use for India and less food, seed, and industrial use for SriLanka and Argentina.
Projected 2022/23 globaltrade is decreased 0.3 million tons to 204.6 million as lower exports from India are not completely offset by higher exports from Russia and Uzbekistan.
India’s exports are reduced 2.0 million tons to 6.5 million as the government intends to restrict exports to some destinations to ensure sufficient domestic supplies.
Russia’s exports are raised 1.0 million tons to 40.0 million, which would be the second largest on record.
Russia’s supplies are projected higher for 2022/23 and its export prices are more competitive than most other exporters.
Projected 2022/23 world ending stocks are lowered 0.2 million tons to 266.9 million, a six-year low.