Kyiv – February 01, 2021
Production
According to the Ministry Trade and Agriculture report, 2020 production and area numbers are:
Wheat, produced 25.1 million metric tons (MMT) harvested from 6,560 thousand hectares (thousand hectares);
Barley – 7.8 MMT from 2,382 thousand hectares;
Corn – 29.8 MMT from 5349 thousand hectares.
According to the AG Statistics Ukraine data, Rye production was around 468 thousand metric tons (MT) from around 136 thousand hectares.
Production estimates for the Crimean Peninsula are as follows:
Wheat – 540.4 thousand MT from 292 thousand hectares;
Barley – 310 thousand MT from 209 thousand hectares;
Rye – 2 thousand MT from 2 thousand hectares;
Corn – 7 thousand MT from 2.4 thousand hectares.
UKRAINE EXPECTED PRODUCTION 2020-2021
WHEAT 25.5 MIO MT
CORN 29.5 MIO MT
BARLEY 8.0 MIO MT
2019/20 corn exports dropped to 29 MMT, a 5 percent decrease compared to 2018/19 corn exports.
The EU remains the largest export destination for Ukrainian corn with total corn exports to the EU at 10.3 MMT, a 32 percent decrease against the previous Y.
China became the second largest market (and the largest single-country market) with Ukraine’s corn exports at 5.4 MMT, a 42 percent increase against the previous marketing year.
It should be noted that South Korea, which has not bought substantial volumes of Ukrainian corn in previous years (both MY2017/18 and MY2018/19), imported 2MMT of corn in MY2019/20
According to grain export bulletin (in Ukrainian), barley exports are most likely concluded at around 3.9 MMT as of January 22, 2021.
For the period July to October 2020, the main export destination was China.
China purchased more than 2.2 MMT, or over 67 percent of total Ukrainian barley exports, displacing Saudi Arabia (0.3 MMT of exports) as the major export destination for Ukrainian barley
Wheat exports were 10.8 MMT during the period July to October 2020, a six percent decrease compared to the same period of 2019.
Ukraine’s wheat exports were spread across more than twenty countries, with Egypt (around 1.3 MMT) and Indonesia (around 2.1 MMT) taking the lead.
Pakistan became a new market for Ukrainian wheat exports, with 0.9 MMT in exports.
Meanwhile exports to Bangladesh (one of the top three previous export destinations for 2019/20) shrunk to around 0.8 MMT, a 35 percent decrease compared to the same period in 2019.
Grain Feed
Given the hike of grain prices and the drop in animal numbers, Ukrainian animal producers will most likely see their profitability decrease.
As a result, producers are not likely to expand their animal numbers until the end of 2021.
In 2020/21 feed consumption estimate to decrease by five percent against 2019/20 to accommodate for this this trend.
Estimated Grain Feed Consumption ( x 1000 Mt )
2018/2019 2019/2020 2020/2021
Barley 2,900 3,400 2,900
Corn 5,000 5,100 4,300
Wheat 3,400 2,200 3,000
Total 11,302 10,702 10,202
