Spring wheat harvest is essentially done, in Saskatchewan (94%), while in Alberta is ~87% done.
Average protein levels of springwheat samples submitted to the CGC are 15.0%, well above the 13.5% average.
Over 80% of the samples tested by the CGC were n1 or n2 SWRS grade.
About durum wheat with 97% of the SK durum crop harvested, the SK Min. Ag. says that 89% of the crop is a N3 CWAD or better.
Cash bids for millingwheat have returned to their peak levels, due to the bad harvest in the US.
However Canadian farmers do not see much reason for the market to fall, thus they are content to wait before selling additional tonnage.
About durumwheat, current SK bids of $18/bu work into the Italian market at roughly US$620/mt CIF, thus, seems that sales to Europe from Canada are not possible right now.
In this context, during shipping week 7, Canadian spring wheat exports were 329.4k mt for a season total of 2.08 mmt, 73% (-752.7k mt) of l.y.’s volume.
While durum exports were 63.6k mt for a season total of 536.3k mt.
To note that this is 52% (185.3k mt) more than l.y., despite there are very tigth stocks.
Canadian durum supplies, indeed, are estimated at only around 3.0 mmt and maybe demand rationing will be necessary.
That becouse even if Canadian farmers think local bids will return to $19.00-$20.00/bu levels, it may be difficult to return to the earlier (all-time) of $22/bu.
Thus Canadian farmers sold min. the 70% of their production.
Outlook
It was an active week for global wheat trade, and its expect buying will continue.
There has been no confirmation of China buying French wheat, but if China does, this could change the EU balance sheet in a major way.
Meantime, there were reports that China was a large buyer of Australian wheat (purchase estimates to date add to ~2mmt).
Pakistan confirmed they bought 575,000 mt of wheat and announced another 640,000 mt tender for the current week.
The price reported was $383.50/mt CIF.
Argentina may have done part of the Pakistan business, and just to note, the north and north-west of Argentina remain very dry, and with crops filling/ripening, it is taking reducing the Argentine crop potential.
Algeria reportedly bought 300-500,000 mt of Mexican /Canadian durum on Thursday at $620-650.
We do not know how much Canadian wheat was involved, but the price works to ~$19.00/bu SK and is supportive to the market.
Durum production in Morocco has been pegged at 2.48 mmt.
This is more than 3 times l.y.’s amount and well above the 5-year average of 1.53 mmt.
Morocco has been a strong buyer especially of Canadian durum in past years, but the strong domestic crop in Morocco and poor and expensive production in Canada will likely curb this.
