Stats Canada put Canadian all wheat production down 1.2 million mt from last month at 21.7 million mt, (-38.3% from last year).
Production by province:
-SK at 9.0 million mt (-43.6% y/y) with an average yield of 28.1 bpa.
-AB at 6.1 million mt (-44.6% y/y) with an average yield of 33.2 bpa.
-MB at 3.4 million mt (-35.0% y/y) with an average yield of 48.2 bpa.
-ON at 2.7 million mt (+8.9% y/y).
Specifically, Canadian springwheat production was decreased by 0.8 million mt from last month to 15.3 million mt, just 59% of last year’s tonnage.
SK spring wheat yield was put at 30.3 bu/acre compared to SK Ag’s 27 bu/acre number.
About durumwheat, Stats Canada put production at 3.5 million mt, down 46% from last year.
In fact, Stats Canada is estimating that yields in SK will be 24.4 bu/acre which is a large difference from SK Ag’s 19 bu/acre number.
Should SK Ag be correct, this would translate into a 3 million mt crop.
This number is likely too small, but durum supplies remain very tight.
Despite a decline in futures prices the week before last, cash bids have been rising.
Domestic cash bids for durum, in contrast, have been fading as domestic (Canadian & US) shorts have covered their earlier sales commitments.
Indeed, domestic durum bids have backed off in the last couple of weeks, but international bids are rising.
Prices for durum wheat in the EU are still below the levels paid in N. America.
Current SK bids of $16/bu work into the Italian market at roughly US$570/mt CIF.
This price for durum in Italy of $480/mt as reported by the EU Commission, and up to US530/mt reported in the market.
Some analysts expects prices in import countries will eventually match those paid in N America last EU & Mexican supplies will not likely be enough to cover all needs.
Consequentially, its likely international prices will exceed Canadian earlier highs.
Meantime, as Canadian farmers expect spring wheat and durum to be tight this year, they see no reason to sell right now.
However they are sold 70% min..
In this context, shipping week 6 Canadian spring wheat exports were 218.5k mt for a season total of 1.75 million mt, 70% (-767.8k mt) of last year’s amount.
Shipping of durum exports were 63.3k mt for a season total of 475.6k mt, 28% (105.1k mt) ahead of last year.
It’s expect that once shippers have finalized initial harvest period requirements, exports will slow and stay well below last year’s levels.
