“Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada”, in October report, raised its forecast for Canadian wheat (excl. durum) exports by 500k mt from their Sept. estimate to 13.0 million mt.
These, remain however down 37% from last year.
The rest of the balance sheet was unchanged for a 500k decrease in ending stocks to 3.0 million mt, down 40% from last year.
Consequently, this would represent a 15% stock-use ratio, down from 18% last crop year.
At the same time, AAFC left the durum balance sheet unchanged , with production at 3.55 million mt (down 46% from last year), exports at 3.1 million mt (down 46% from last year) and ending stocks at 450k mt (down 40% from last year).
Meantime, in shipping week 11, Canadian springwheat exports were a multi-year low of 95.8k mt for a season total of 2.77 million mt, 62% (-172 million mt) of last year’s amount.
To reach AAFC’s 13.0 million mt estimate, average exports will need to be 249.4k mt per week, in line with the current average of 252.1k mt per week, but likely the pace will slow.
As for durum wheat, Canadian durum exports are also slowing down. Indeed, in shipping week 11 Canadian durum exports were 64.1k mt, for a season total of 735.2k mt.
That is now down 5% (38.9k mt) from than last year.
To reach AAFC’s 3.1 million mt export projection, average weekly durum exports will need to be 57.7k mt per week.
Average weekly exports are currently 66.8k mt per week.
It’s expect durum export will continue to fall as winter coming, but demand remains strong and with this export pace Canadian durum wheat likely will not be enough to satisfy all customer requests.
On the quality side, latest CGC harvest sample data shows that average protein levels of the Canadian CWRS crop are unchanged from last week at 14.7%.
There are over 1 million mt of milling wheat stocks sitting in Eastern Canadian terminals that will be exported over the next few weeks.That is roughly the same last year amount.
However, as for durum wheat it should to note that durum stocks sitting in Eastern Canadian terminals are only 54,6k compared to 101 k of previus year.
Consequentially, Canadian farmers see no reason for the durum market to fall and at this moment are not available to sale down below $21/bu, to which we must add the elevation’s cost, that amount this week at CAD $107.25/mt, up from $81/mt of previus week.
