This week there were some showers in the Canadian forecast, however there now is little hope of any significant improvement to the wheat crop.
Most all-wheat production estimates for Canada, indeed, have been lowered to 20 from 25 million mt.
Durum wheat production in Canada also has clearly been impacted by the dryness and heat.
The most recent Saskatchewan Ag report has Saskatchewan durum at 16% Gd/Exc., while Alberta Ag had durum at 22% Gd/ Exc.
Meantime, Canadian wheat exports (excluding durum) with only 258,000 mt, were relatively modest last week (week 52), advancing the 2020/21 wheat exports to 19.6 million mt.
That was 1.6 million mt higher (+9%) than last crop year however.
Durum exports for week 52 were came in at 81,000 mt, for a year-to-date total of 6.1 million mt, compared to 5.3 million mt last crop year. This is 15% ahead of last year’s exports.
Meantime, StatCan published June exports by destination last week.
1.8 million mt of wheat (excluding durum) were exported during June, with 290,000 mt going to Indonesia, 246,000 mt to China, and 180 mt to Peru.
Year-to-date (Aug. 20 to June ’21), Canada exported 19.3 million mt of wheat, 12% more than last year-to-date.
Canadian June#durum wheat exports by destination showed that 232,000 mt of durum was exported during June, with 91,000 mt going to Italy, 37,000 mt to the US, and 29,000 mt to Japan.
Year-to-date (Aug. 20 to June ’21), Canada exported 5.4 million mt of durum, 15% more than last crop year.
To note that Canadian biggest gains in this year’s durum sales were to Algeria, Italy and to Morocco.
Indeed, Canadian growers did lose significant export volume to Turkey and to Spain.
For this week, started August 09, Canadian wheat prices for FOB delivery were (Cdn$/mt):
– for the N1 class CWRS 13.5% – $483,61;
– for the N2 class CWRS 13.0% – $476,68;
– for the N3 CWRS – $396,31;
– for the N1 CWAD – $646,66.
(1USD=Cnd$1.258).
SWB – Sicilian Wheat Bank ITA‘s outlook
With an estimates of the Russian wheat crop that dropped to around 75 million mt based on incoming yield reports, Canada and Russia combined are heading for a production shortfall of ~20 million mt compared to the USDA numbers shown so far.
Additionally, with different quality problems in the French crop, we should begs the question how much milling wheat will be available to the international market during this season.
Maybe, demand rationing will be necessary as the potential sizes of the Canadian, Russian and US crops will gets smaller.
Meantime, Ceres this week has a bid as high as $16/bu for N3CWAD, which is a very strong value reflecting the anticipated shortage of durum in the US.
