Consultancy Strategie Grains has raised its forecast for this year’s European Union rapeseed harvest while trimming demand expectations, projecting reduced supply tightness next season.
Rapeseed production in the 27-country EU, indeed, is now expected to reach 17 million tonnes, compared with the 16.82 million tonnes forecast a month ago.
This is 3.3% above last year’s crop.
The upward revision was mainly because of Romanian output, the consultancy said.
A sharp fall in global vegetableoil prices between mid-May and mid-June cut margins for crushing oilseeds, including rapeseed, reducing demand prospects for the coming 2021/22 season.
Thus its expect a recovery of rapeseed and sunseed stocks in the EU between the beginning and end of 2021/22 marketing year.
Meantime, the consultancy made a slight cut to its forecast for EU sunseed output this year to 9.82 million tonnes from 9.88 million tonnes, but that would still be 13.2% above 2020’s drought-affected crop.
Consequentially, european rapeseed prices are expected to ease from current high levels in the run-up to harvesting.
However, price trends will depend on yield results in Europe, prospects for Canadian canola and U.S. soybeans, as well as crudeoil fluctuations that influence biofuel markets.
Sourced by Reuters
