According to the StatCan, Canadian farmers are projected to harvest more corn for grain, but less wheat, canola, soybeans, barley and oats, according to recent yield models using satellite imagery.
Lower production has been driven largely by ongoing drought conditions in Western Canada, which could decrease yields.
In particular, wheat production expected to decrease on lower harvested area and yields
Nationally, wheat production is projected to decrease 34.8% year over year to 22.9 million tonnes in 2021, on lower anticipated yields (-28.7% to 37.2 bushels per acre) and less harvested area (-8.5% to 22.7 million acres).
The decrease in wheat area was largely attributable to spring wheat, which in addition to having less seeded area in 2021, has been impacted by drought conditions in Western Canada.
Durum wheat yields are also expected to fall considerably, while winter wheat, which is predominantly grown in Ontario, is expected to yield in line with historical averages thanks to better growing conditions within the province.
Total Canadian durum wheat production is expected to reach only 3.998.000 t, that represent a decline of -39.2% compared to 2020 season.
In Saskatchewan, wheat harvested area is expected to fall 7.9% to 11.8 million acres, while yields are anticipated to decrease 33.8% to 30.4 bushels per acre to bring total wheat production down 39.1% year over year to 9.7 million tonnes.
Wheat yield in Alberta is expected to decrease 41.0% to 32.9 bushels per acre in 2021, while harvested area is projected to fall 7.0%, resulting in a 45.2% production decrease to 6.1 million tonnes.
Wheat production in Manitoba is projected to fall 24.1% to 4.0 million tonnes in 2021, the result of lower harvested area (-17.2% to 2.6 million acres) and lower yields (-8.3% to 56.2 bushels per acre).
Wheat production in Ontario (the majority of which is winter wheat) is projected to rise 8.9% to 2.7 million tonnes year over year, on increased harvested acres (+2.3%) and yields (+6.4%).
