Russian wheat prices gained for the 4th consecutive week last week.
According to the IKAR, indeed, Russian wheat with 12.5% protein loading from Black Sea ports for supply in the second half of November was valued at $328 a tonne, free on board (FOB) at the end of last week, up $2 from the previous week.
According to SovEcon, wheat export price was up by $5 to $332 a tonne.
Barley export price rose by $3 to $296 a tonne, meantime.
Domestic 3rd class wheat, European part of Russia, excludes delivery, was valued at 15,100 roubles/t ($208.5), up +200 rbls (Sovecon);
Sunflower seeds were at 36,050 rbls/t, up +550 rbls (Sovecon);
Domestic sunflower oil was at 87,675 rbls/t, unchanged from prior week (Sovecon);
Export price for sunflower oil was at $1,375/t, up +$10, (Sovecon);
Export price for sunflower oil was at $1,370/t, down -$5 (IKAR);
Soybeans were at 49,700 rbls/t, unchanged (Sovecon);
White sugar, Russia’s south was at $625.0/t +$1(IKAR).
($1 = 72.4170 roubles)
Outlook
Russia may change the formula it uses to calculate its grain export taxes in case of major price growth.
Particularly, the formula for the wheat export tax may change if prices reach $400 per tonne.
In add, the Ministry of Agriculture plans to set a grain export quota in the first half of 2022 to secure domestic supply.
Actually, “the quota was not news as it was expected by the market”.
In contrast, “a threat to increase the tax is something new”. Sovecon said in a note.
Meantime, Russian wheat exports are down by 34% since the start of the 2021/22 marketing season on July 1 while the export tax will rise to $77.1 per tonne this week.
