Russian wheat export prices fell last week.
A weaker rouble against the dollar, due fears related to a stand-off between Moscow and the West over Ukraine, plumbted domestic market.
Thus, according to the IKAR, Russian wheat with 12.5% protein content loading from Black Sea ports for supply in February stood at $326 a tonne free on board (FOB), down $2 from the previous week.
According to SovEcon, wheat prices were down $1 at $331 per tonne.
Meanwhile, price of barley remained stable at $295 a tonne.
Other Russian data provided by Sovecon and IKAR have seen:
– Domestic 3rd class wheat, European part of Russia, excluded delivery at 14,975 -100 rbls roubles/t ($190.9) (Sovecon);
– Sunflower seeds at 36,200 rbls/t +825 rbls (Sovecon);
– Domestic sunfloweroil at 86,500 rbls/t +500 rbls (Sovecon);
– Export sunflower oil at $1,375/t +$25 (Sovecon);
– Export sunflower oil at $1,355/t +$10 (IKAR);
– Soybeans at 43,900 rbls/t +200 rbls (Sovecon);
– Whitesugar, Russia’s south at $652.8/t -$16.4 (IKAR).
($1 = 78.4260 roubles).
Outlook:
The West fears Russia may invade its neighbour Ukraine.
Russia denies planning an attack, but says it could take unspecified military action if a list of demands are not met.
Russian stocks fell last week amid these tensions, meantime.
Analysts are warning that tensions between Ukraine and Russia could translate directly into higher wheat prices.
Indeed, according to USDA data, 30% of the world’s wheat exports come from the Black Sea region.
One analyst looked at the 2014 Russian invasion of Crimea and noted that wheat prices rose 9% during that time.
Also, as Russia is a major oil exporter, this conflict, could also affect fertilizer prices.
In the event of a conflict in the Black Sea basin, gas supplies could be disrupted, with Russia alone contributing 35% of supplies to Europe.
Uncertainty is a key driver to the runup in prices, especially as Russia and Ukraine are expected to export around 20.0 MMT of wheat through the rest of their July-June export calendar.
Meantime, Russian wheat exports are down by 40% since the start of the 2021/22 marketing season on July 1.
Export duty, has been set at $95.8 per tonne for Jan. 26 to Feb. 1 down from previus week.
According to Sovecon, the weather remains favourable for the 2022 crop, thanks healthy precipitation in the majority of winter wheat-producing regions appened last week.
Consequentially, Sovecon kept its forecast for Russia’s 2022 grain crop unchanged at 81.3 million tonnes, up from 75.9 million tonnes in 2021.
