Russian wheat export prices fell for a sixth consecutive week last week.
Indeed, according to IKAR, Russian wheat with 12.5% protein content, loading from BlackSea ports for supply in late Feb-early March stood at $312 a tonne free on board (FOB) last week, down $6 from the previous week.
According to SovEcon wheat export prices and barley were down $3 to $313 a tonne and $295 a tonne, respectively.
Domestic 3rd class wheat, European part of Russia, excluded delivery was at 14,825 roubles/t, down 225 rbls ($193.18 vs $196.00 prior week) (Sovecon);
Sunflower seeds were at 37,000 rbls/t, down 375 rbls (Sovecon);
Domestic sunfloweroil was unchanged to 89,500 rbls/t (Sovecon);
Export sunflower oil was at $1,420/t, up $35 (Sovecon);
Export sunflower oil was at $1,415/t, up $40 (IKAR);
Soybeans were at 43,850 rbls/t, down 200 rbls (Sovecon);
Whitesugar, Russia’s south , was at $646.9/t, down $15.6 (IKAR).
($1 = 76.7425 roubles).
Outlook:
Russia and Ukraine are major global wheat exporters.
Actual grain flows have not been affected directly so far, althought freight could become more expensive if the conflict escalates.
According to Rosselkhoznadzor, since the beginning of the season-21/22 (July 1), and as of Feb 17, Russia exported 36.1 MMT of grains and oilseeds and their by-products (including deliveries in the Customs Union countries).
That was down 20% compared to the same period of the last year.
The export of grains and pulses totaled 31.7 MMT, including 30.3 MMT of grains.
Russia shipped the reporting goods to 141 countries ( vs 131 a year ago).
In the reporting period Russia exported 25.2 MMT of wheat (down 24%), 2.9 MMT of barley (down 34%), 2 MMT of corn (up 24%), 1.1 MMT of peas, 0.6 MMT of wheatbran, 0.2 MMT wheatflour.
Particularly, flour export exceeded the result of the full 2020/21 MY.
In addition, Russia exported 0.4 MMT of soybeans, 0.8 MMT of sunflower meal, 0.6 MMT of flaxseed.
According to Federal Customs Service, Russia exported 174 thsd tonnes of sunflowermeal in Dec. that turned to be the highest monthly volume since April 2021.
In Sept-Dec, Russia exported 470 thsd tonnes of sunflower meal, still down 8% y/y.
Russia has raised export of sunflower meal to the EU so far in 2021/22 MY – to 280 thsd tonnes, up 9% y/y.
For the first times over the long period, Russia turned to be the largest supplier of sunflower meal to the EU.
According to the EU Commission, in Sep-Jan, the EU imported 345 thsd tonnes of Russian sunflower meal.
The Russian share amounted to 40% (34% in 2020/21 MY).
Last season, the share of Ukrainian sunflower meal was 48% on the market of the EU.
It decreased to 37% in Sept-Jan 21/22 MY.
China imported 8.8 thsd tonnes of Russian sunflower meal in a period from March 2020 to Jan. 2021.
However, the first significant lots of Russian sunflower meal may flow to China as soon as March ’22.
