According to the International Grains Council, the outlook for world total grains production in 2021/22 is 3m t lower month-on-month.
Particularly, world total grains (wheat and coarse grains) production in 2021/22 is forecast to climb by 76m t y/y, to a record 2,287m. The figure for consumption is trimmed by 2m t, as grains consumption is predicted to grow only by 3%.
Trade (Jul/Jun) is placed 1% lower y/y.
Particularly the world trade (Jul/Jun) is placed at 421m t.
Thus, world stocks are seen to drop to a six-year low of 600m t (-2m y/y) and even if global carryover of wheat is expected to be only modestly below the all-time high of the year before, wheat inventories in the major exporters could be at a nine-year low.
As for soybean, the Council’s forecast for 2021/22 soyabean output is maintained at a record of 380m t (+4% y/y). A record if realized.
Consumption is trimmed slightly but, owing to a smaller estimate for carry-ins, stocks are seen little-changed m/m, at 60m t (+11%).
Thus despite an expanded demand for soyabean products, aggregate inventories could increase for a second consecutive year.
Global import demand, meantime, is predicted slightly lower than before, at 168m t, however its represent a +5% y/y.
In this context, the IGC Grains and Oilseeds Index (GOI) climbed by 1% m/m, as weaker soyabean and rice prices were offset by net gains for wheat, maize and barley.
Particularly, underpinned by supply tightness in the major exporters, the IGC GOI wheat sub-Index rose by a net 5%, touching its highest in more than 10-years at times.
