Good morning Farmer Family …
US farm markets were lightly mixed on Friday, as traders squared their positions ahead of the three-day holiday weekend.
Markets and most government offices, indeed, will be closed today, February 20, in observance of the Federal President’s Day holiday.
They will resume normal activity tomorrow.
In this context, corn prices closed 0.26% higher in the end week session.
Soybean posted fractionally gains of 0.05%.
The products weakened, in contrast, with 0.06% losses for soymeal and 0.63% losses for soy oil.
The wheat complex was mixed as Kansas City HRW rose 0.89% on the session, while CBOT contracts were only fractionally higher, posting 0.07% gains, and MGEX spring wheat prices were unchanged at the bell.
For the week, corn prices were 0.4% lower.
Soybeans backed off of last week’s strength with March down 1%.
The product values were mixed, with meal the weakest, down 1.66%.
March bean oil was up 1.6% on the week.
Wheat faced selling pressure early in the week, leading to a lower wk/wk move for the winter wheat contracts.
Indeed, the Chicago SRW market back down 2.61%.
Kansas City HRW was 0.28% lower on the week.
MPLS held up nicely, meantime, as March was unchanged from prior Friday.
Corn and soybean prices chopped around the week as traders shifted their focus from problems with drought-hit crops in Argentina to expectations of a record-large Brazilian soybean harvest.
Wednesday’s EIA report showed a 14,000 barrel per day increase in daily ethanol production (and corn use) to 1.014 million bpd.
However, ethanol stocks jumped 922,000 barrels to 25.339 million barrels, with a bulk of the increase from the Gulf, usually implying a buildup for exports.
As for soybean, NOPA data released on Wednesday showed 179 mbu of beans were crushed by members during January.
That was down 1.76% from last year, although 0.85% up from December.
Soy oil stocks, however, were tallied at 1.829 billion lbs, which was up 2.1% from the previous month, tgough 9.75% lower than last year.
Meantime, Thursday’s Export Sales report showed corn bookings above the 1 MMT mark for the third consecutive week at 1.024 MMT during the week of February 9.
However, old crop corn export commitments (shipped and unshipped sales) are still at 27.817 MMT.
That is down 40% vs. last year and 57% of the USDA forecast, compared to the 71% average pace.
Separately, on Friday private exporters reported to the USDA having sold 120,800 metric tons of corn for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2022/2023 marketing year.
As for soybean, Thursday’s Export Sales report showed old crop soybean export bookings seeing an uptick to 512,802 MT in the week of 2/9.
Commitments are now 48.09 MMT, or slightly above last year at this time.
They are 89% of USDA’s forecast total, still 8% faster than the average pace.
However, the window for sales and shipments is getting narrower as Brazil’s bean harvest accelerates.
As for wheat, the report tallied wheat bookings at a 3-week high of just 209,847 MT.
That pushed total wheat export commitments to 16.598 MMT as of February 9.
However, it is still 6% below year ago and 79% of the USDA export projection.
Normally it would be 89% of the projection sold/shipped by now.
Actual shipments are 61% of the projected full-year total, 4% back of the average pace.
Meantime, during the week, a firming dollar and declines in crude oil prices weighed in grain markets.
Notably, the greenback drew support on the week as investors upped their expectations for U.S. interest rates.
The strength in the dollar index, however, hung over the grain markets, making U.S. grains less attractive globally, although the dollar later turned lower.
Similarly, crude oil prices fell on worries that interest rate hikes could weigh on demand.
In this context, corn and soybeans followed trends in crude oil prices given their respective roles as feedstocks for ethanol and biodiesel fuel.
On the other hand, an escalation in fighting in eastern Ukraine and renewed Russian criticism of shipping corridor from Ukraine underpinned the wheat market.
Also, HRW wheat prices drew additional support from dry conditions in portions of the U.S. Plains winter wheat belt.
The Texas state Crop Progress report showed winter wheat ratings backing off 2% to 11% gd/ex.
More states will be out at the end of the month, with the National report out on a weekly basis beginning in April.
Meantime, aside from some parts of Minnesota and the Dakotas, little to no rain and/or snow is expected in the central U.S. until Tuesday, according to the NOAA.
However, the agency’s new 8-to-14-day outlook predicts a return to seasonally wet weather for most of the Midwest and Plains between February 24 and March 2, with colder-than-normal conditions likely for the western half of the U.S. during that time.
Meantime, traders await the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s annual Outlook Forum in the coming days, in which the government is expected to release preliminary forecasts for 2023 plantings and production of major U.S. crops.
USDA’s Ag Outlook Forum will provide the Office of the Chief Economist’s estimates for new crop, before the March Planting Intentions report and the first official balance sheets in the May WASDE.
USDA’s ERS 10 year forecast has 2023 corn acres at 92m and a 181.5 bpa yield with stocks growing to 1.712 bbu and the cash average price fading to $5.70/bu.
By the end of the decade, ERS assumes corn stocks would be comfortable near 16 bbu as trend-line yields improve to 199.5 bpa and cash prices get steady at $4.30/bu in the long run.
As for soybean, the ERS released their 10-yr projections for soybeans, suggesting that 23/24’s baseline acreage would be 87m with a 52 bpa yield.
Stocks would grow some to 226 mbu, with a $13 cash price.
By the end of the decade, crush is seen working higher to 2.5 bbu/yr, with exports maintained between 2 – 2.2 bbu/yr.
As for wheat, USDA’s ERS released their 10-yr projections for wheat S&Ds, expecting 23/24 acreage of 47.5m producing 1.92 bbu.
In this context, corn basis bids were mostly steady to firm across the central U.S. on Friday, improving as much as 5 cents at two Midwestern processors.
An Iowa river terminal bucked the overall trend after spilling 6 cents lower.
Soybean basis bids were steady to weak after spilling 2 to 15 cents lower across three Midwestern locations.
As for wheat, basis levels continued to face pressure from elevated futures prices as the geopolitical concerns in the Black Sea persist.
HRS basis was down in the Gulf and flat in the PNW, pressured by elevated futures and slack demand.
HRW basis was steady in both the Gulf and the PNW as export interest remains light, though farmer selling has increased in response to the rally.
Gulf SRW basis increased in response to a significant drop in CBOT futures compared with other classes.
SW prices remain unchanged, as slow demand and low farmer engagement provided little price support.
The CFTC again not had CoT data past week.
In energy markets, oil settled down $2 a barrel on Friday and ended the week markedly lower.
Brent crude futures, indeed, settled down $2.14 or 2.5%, to $83.00 a barrel, falling 3.9% week on week.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) U.S. crude settled down $2.15, or 2.7%, to $76.34, falling 4.2% from prior Friday’s settlement.
On Thursday, two Fed officials warned additional hikes in borrowing costs are essential to curb inflation.
The sentiments lifted the U.S. dollar, making oil more expensive for holders of other currencies.
Various signs of ample supply also weighed on the market.
Russian oil producers expect to maintain current volumes of crude oil exports, despite the government’s plan to cut oil output in March, the Vedomosti newspaper said on Friday, citing sources familiar with companies’ plans.
The latest snapshot of U.S. supplies, released on Wednesday, showed crude inventories in the week to Feb. 10 rose by 16.3 million barrels to 471.4 million barrels, their highest level since June 2021.
In this context, the oil and gas rig count, an early indicator of future output, fell by one to 760 in the week to Feb. 17, energy services firm Baker Hughes Co said on Friday.
However, in spite this week’s rig decline, Baker Hughes said the total count was still up 115, or 18%, over this time last year.
Some support came from moves during the week by the IEA and the OPEC, which raised their forecasts for global oil demand growth this year, citing expectations for more Chinese demand.
However, Saudi Arabia’s energy minister said the current deal by OPEC+, to cut oil output targets by 2 million barrels per day, would be locked in until the end of the year, adding he remained cautious on Chinese demand.
On this morning, oil prices rose amid optimism over China’s demand recovery, concerns that underinvestment will crimp future oil supply and as major producers keep output limits in place.
Notably, Brent crude rose 70 cents, or 0.8%, to $83.70 a barrel by 07:20 GMT.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude for March, which expires on Tuesday, was at $76.89 a barrel, up 55 cents or 0.7%.
The more active April contract was up 0.8% at $77.14.
In ocean freight markets, the Baltic Exchange’s main sea freight index edged higher on Friday but declined for the seventh straight week on lower demand for larger vessels, while the capesize segment marked its worst weekly drop in nearly six months.
The overall index, indeed, was up 8 points, or about 1.5%, at 538.
The index, however, was down 10.6% for the week.
Notably, the capesize index fell 4 points, or about 1.5%, to 271 — its lowest since early June 2020.
It was down more than 44% for the week.
Average daily earnings for capesizes, which typically transport 150,000-tonne cargoes such as iron ore and coal, fell $34 to $2,246.
The panamax index fell 7 points, or about 0.9%, to 811.
It was down 6.1% for the week, marking its seventh straight weekly fall.
Average daily earnings for panamaxes, which usually carry coal or grain cargoes of about 60,000 to 70,000 tonnes, were down $56 at $7,302.
The supramax index rose 35 points, or 5.3%, to 695, on its best day in over a year.
In equity markets, Wall Street closed another bumpy week with a mixed performance on Friday.
The S&P 500 declined 0.28% to end the session at 4,079.09 points.
The Nasdaq fell 0.58% to 11,787.27 points, while Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.39% to 33,826.69 points.
For the week, the S&P 500 fell 0.3%, the Dow lost 0.1% and the Nasdaq climbed 0.6%.
The S&P 500 has gained about 6% so far in 2023, while the Nasdaq has rebounded about 13% following deep losses last year.
Reports recently have shown more strength than expected in everything from the job market to retail sales to inflation itself, raising worries that the Federal Reserve will have to get tougher on interest rates.
Thus, the two-year Treasury yield topped 4.70% in the morning, up from 4.62% late Thursday and from less than 4.10% earlier this month.
It later pulled back to 4.61%.
It has recently approached its heights from November, when it reached its highest point since 2007.
The 10-year T-note yield retreated from a 3-1/4 month high Friday of 3.925% and fell -4.2 bp to 3.819%.
Friday’s U.S. economic news on import prices was bearish for stocks and bonds after the Jan import price index ex-petroleum unexpectedly rose +0.2% m/m, stronger than expectations of a decline of -0.3% m/m.
Also, Friday’s slump in oil crude prices, knocked energy stocks lower.
Exxon Mobil fell 3.8%.
Negative corporate news Friday also weighed on stock indexes.
Microsoft fell 1.6% and Nvidia lost 2.8% for some of the heaviest weights on the S&P 500.
Moderna closed down more than -3%.
Also, Zebra Technologies closed down more than -3%.
In addition, Epam Systems, Generac Holdings, and Airbnb closed down -2% or more after being downgraded.
On the positive side, Deere & Co closed up more than +7%.
Also, DraftKings closed up more than +15%.
In addition, consumer staple stocks rallied on a defensive play due to weakness in the overall market.
Still offering some support to the stock market are remaining hopes among investors that the economy can avoid a worst-case recession.
On this morning, shares were mostly higher in Asia.
China left its benchmark lending rate, the loan prime rate, unchanged as expected.
The 1-year rate was kept at 3.65% while the 5-year rate is 4.3%.
Meantime, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index gained 0.9% to 20,898.94 while the Shanghai Composite index jumped 2.1% to 3,290.34.
Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 edged up 0.1% to 27,531.94.
India’s Sensex slipped 0.2% to 60,891.78. South Korea’s Kospi added 0.2% to 2,455.12 and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 was up 0.1% higher at 7,351.50.
Shares in Southeast Asian markets declined, apart from in Bangkok, where the SET gained 0.3%.
In currency trading, the dollar edged lower against the euro and sterling on Friday.
Notably, the dollar index was last down 0.24% at 103.83, after earlier reaching 104.67, the highest since Jan. 6.
Sterling was up 0.48% at $1.2044 while the euro rose 0.22% to $1.0696, after earlier falling to $1.06125, the lowest since Jan. 6.
The market has already reacted to recent strong data prints in anticipating the Fed’s playbook to put the dollar at its current level.
Investors are waiting for more information to act as a catalyst as European Central Bank (ECB) officials have also made clear that they expect euro zone rates to keep rising.
On this morning, the U.S. dollar slipped to 134.08 Japanese yen from 134.28 yen.
The euro rose to $1.0699 from $1.0696.
Going back to analyzing the other agricultural markets …
In Canada, the Grain Statistics weekly report, had producers’ deliveries of common wheat at 590,8k mt for week 28 of this shipping season.
That was sharply higher from 412,8k mt posted prior week.
Deliveries of durum wheat, were at 130,3k mt, also higher from 106,5k mt showed in prior week.
Meantime, Canada exported 364,6k mt of common wheat in week 28.
That was up from 354,7k mt of a week earlier.
Durum wheat exports, were also higher moving up from 97,1k mt to 166,2k mt.
Total Commercial Stocks of common wheat stood at 2.958,9k mt.
That was up from 2.841,8k mt posted in week 27.
Total durum commercial stocks, were weaker from 644,6k mt a week earlier, at 638,4k mt.
Cumulative exports for common wheat were at 10.643,1k mt.
That is compared 6.374,9k mt a year ago.
Durum cumulative exports reached 2.959,2k mt vs 1.418,6 a year ago.
In this context, cash bids for Canadian durum wheat rose week over week.
Indeed, looking at the average regional price of C$455.56/mt as of Feb 10, that was C$6.97/mt firmer from the prior week.
From South America, Brazilian farmers stingy with their soybean sales so far this marketing year.
Brazil’s largest grain farmer cooperative Coamo reports that forward sales in 2022/23 are only at around 5% of the total expected output, versus 25-30% at the same time a year ago.
Coamo argues that this is due to farmers holding onto more of their grain to wait for higher domestic prices.
The BAGE reported 100% of Argentina’s 22/23 corn crop was planted on 7.1m HA, including both early and late planted corn crops.
However, Argentina’s corn exports should fall some 40% year-on-year between March and June, the Rosario Grains exchange (BCR) said on Friday, as fewer hectares were planted early this season due to the impacts of a historic drought.
Also, the BAGE crop rating saw corn at 55pc fair/excellent (66pc week ago, 74pc previous year).
It reported good progress in Santa Fe and Entre Rios.
However, some yield losses were expected due to a lack of rainfall during critical stages of development.
Soybean condition was rated 44pc fair/excellent (52pc week ago, 77pc previous year).
The Exchange said dry weather and above normal temperatures in parts of Santa Fe and Entre Rios were negative for yield prospects.
In this context, the BCR forecast just 8.7 millions tonnes of corn exports in those four months, after just 19% of an estimated 7.3 million hectares (18.04 million acres) were sown in the early weeks of the campaign, as many farmers awaited rains which in many regions did not materialize.
Last week, the BCR for the second time cut its corn production estimate to 42.5 million tonnes, due to what it has declared the worst drought in 60 years.
At the start of cycle in September, it had forecast a 55 million-tonne harvest.
“This year there will be less corn overall,” the exchange said, “but also a change in the seasonal pattern of grain availability, with only a very small portion available for consumption and export in March to April.”
Early corn yields are higher than those planted late, and are usually shipped abroad during this period.
Late corn is usually exported between July and September.
The BCR forecast total corn exports for the current season at 27.5 million tonnes.
In Europe, March wheat on Paris-based Euronext, closed the week at 295 euros ($315.47 – $1.64 wow) a tonne on Friday, posting a €2/t weekly decline.
As for the other products, price for March’s European Durum Wheat, tumbled another €13.25/t for the week, settling at €420.75/t.
March corn price, in contrast, was up €3.75/t for the week, closing at 295 euros per ton.
Rapeseed closed at €564.5/t, up €14/t for the week.
European wheat prices fell, pressured by weakness in Chicago and ongoing competition from Black Sea origins.
Export prices in Poland, though were weakened by recent Euronext falls, continued to be underlayed as more ships were loading wheat for exports in Polish ports, which was supportive.
Notably, a multi-national trading house was loading two ships each with 50,000 tonnes for unknown destinations.
One ship had sailed with 27,000 tonnes of wheat for Algeria another is sailing with 30,000 tonnes for Morocco.
Thus, although Polish 12.5% protein wheat indeed fell 15 zloty past week, to 1,375 zloty a tonne, it was still at 287.8 euros per tonnes for March delivery to ports.
That was compared with large volumes of Russian wheat continuing to be offered for sale internationally despite geopolitical risks.
Handysize shipments of Russian 11.5% protein wheat were offered in the low $290s a tonne FOB for March shipment from Black Sea ports.
Ukrainian wheat of 11.5% for second-half February/first-half March shipment through ports in the shipping channel was again offered at $280 a tonne FOB, traders said.
Meantime, data from farm office FranceAgriMer showed most French wheat crops remain in good condition and farmers have sown more than half of the expected spring barley area.
Notably, an estimated 93% of French soft wheat crops were in good or excellent condition in the week to Feb. 13, up from 92% the previous week.
However, the score was slightly below the 95% registered a year earlier.
The rating was also down from the 97% estimated in FranceAgriMer’s previous crop report in early December.
For winter barley, 92% of the crop was rated good or excellent, while durum wheat scored 93%.
Farmers had made rapid progress in sowing spring barley.
Some 58% of the expected area had been sown, compared with 26% for the same week last year and an average 16% over the previous five years, FranceAgriMer’s data showed.
In this context, farm office FranceAgriMer on Wednesday lowered its forecast for French soft wheat exports this season.
The European Commission not published figures on European Union grain exports and imports this week due to a persisting technical issue.
From Ukraine, additional negotiations are likely to take place this week to extend the current deal that allows safe passage of Ukrainian vessels through the Black Sea, which was initially brokered by the United Nations and Turkey last July.
The agreement is up for renewal in March, and Russia is likely to ask for agricultural export sanctions to be lifted in order to keep extending the deal.
The Black Sea Grain Initiative created a protected sea transit corridor and was designed to alleviate global food shortages.
Meantime, grain traders union UGA said it expected Ukraine’s grain and oilseed crop harvest to fall to 64.8 million tonnes in 2023 from 72.7 million tonnes in 2022.
It said the grain harvest could include 17.4Mt wheat and 21.1Mt corn.
Exports of wheat could be 14 million tonnes and exports of corn could be 20 million tonnes in the 2023/24 marketing season, the union said.
Ukrainian grain exports in the 2022/23 season, which runs through to June, have fallen 29% to 29.2 million tonnes as of Feb. 13, due to a smaller harvest and logistical difficulties.
However, still now Ukraine’s winter wheat crop looks to be in good condition, according to the National Academy of Agrarian Sciences (NAAS), which pegged the survival rate of winter cereal plants at 98-99pc.
From Russia, the annual Russian grain quota of 25.5 MMT came into effect on Feb. 15, 2023, and will be in place until June 30, 2023.
The quota is put in place each year to protect Russia’s domestic wheat supplies by limiting exports beyond the quota.
However, the 2023 quota is 2.5 times larger than last year after a bumper 2022/23 wheat crop and strong export demand.
Russia’s Interfax counted 19.8 MMT of wheat stocks in their January count, compared to 12.4 MMT at the same time last year.
In this context, SovEcon has revised up its forecast for Russia’s wheat exports in the year to June 30 by 100,000t to 44.2 million tonnes (Mt), well up on 39.1Mt in 2021-22.
SovEcon cited a weak ruble, large domestic stocks, and solid demand.
USDA has their official forecast at 43 MMT for Russian wheat exports.
Meantime, the Russian agriculture ministry revised the export tax for wheat, corn and barley.
Particularly, as of Feb 22, the export duty on wheat will increase to 5,177.2 from 4,653.5 rubles per ton a week earlier.
Ditto for corn, will rise from 1,670.0 rubles of a week earlier, to 2,199.7 rubles per ton.
Also for barley, the duty will be higher for this period, increasing to 3,717.0 rubles from 3,209.1 rubles per ton a week earlier.
This new duty rates will be in effect through Feb 28, inclusive.
The duties were calculated based on indicative prices: $304.8 per ton for wheat ($306.2 a week earlier), $261.1 for barley ($261), $231.6 for corn ($230).
From Australia, strength in wheat and barley in South Australia and the eastern states delivered slight gains on boards to round out local markets last week.
Values in WA for ASW1 and BAR1 were relatively unchanged.
Friday’s canola bids were unchanged but buying interest for canola parcels is maintaining a firmer tendency.
On the international trade scene, Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) is seeking to buy a total of 94,387 tonnes of food-quality wheat from the United States, Canada and Australia in a regular tender that will close on Wednesday.
GASC has announced a new Wheat tender on a C&F basis, funded by World Bank, for Wednesday Feb 22 and shipment between 1-15 April 2023.
The payment is by at sight with LC.
South Korea’s Feed Leaders Committee (FLC) purchased about 65,000 tonnes of animal feed corn in a private deal on Friday expected to be sourced from the United States or South America without issuing an international tender.
The corn was purchased at an estimated $337.99 a tonne c&f plus a $1.50 a tonne surcharge for additional port unloading.
Seller was believed to be trading house Mitsubishi.
The corn was for arrival in South Korea around June 6.
If sourced from the U.S. Pacific Northwest coast, shipment is between May 1-May 20, if from the U.S. Gulf between April 20- May 10 or from South America between April 15-May 5.
Watching this week’s market, today US markets and governments are closed for President’s Day.
The markets will re-open Monday nigth for the Tuesday session.
US Weekly Export Inspections data will be released on Tuesday afternoon.
The weekly EIA ethanol production and stocks report will be pushed to Thursday.
On Thursday and Friday, USDA will hold their annual Outlook Forum in suburban D.C.
Skip to Friday and we will see the release of weekly Export Sales report, with the monthly Cattle on Feed and Cold Storage report out that night.
March grain options also expire on Friday.
That’s all, thank you.
We wish you a nice day and a good weekend.
Author: Sandro F. Puglisi
