Good morning Farmer Family …
US farm markets ended mixed past Friday, but mostly weaker.
Corn prices rose 0.72%.
Soybeans were fractionally (+0.02%) higher at the bell.
Meal prices traded 0.22% lower.
Bean oil prices settled down by 0.52%.
After trading modestly higher through midday, the wheat markets turned south and ended the day down by double digits.
Notabily, Chicago SRW wheat prices closed 2.27% weaker.
Kansas City HRW wheat prices ended the trade with 0.89% losses.
Minneapolis spring wheat prices went home fractionally (-0.05%) in the red.
For the week, corn prices managed to squeeze out a 0.03% gain over the course of the Thanksgiving week’s.
Soybeans headed 0.56% higher.
Soybean oil was up 2.45%.
Soybean meal was 0.39% weaker.
The wheat complex was mixed across the three exchanges this week.
Chicago SRW was down 3.45%.
Kansas City HRW contracts were 1.31% lower.
Minneapolis spring wheat was again the strongest, up 0.61% on the week.
Corn prices ended the end week session higher, despite a stronger dollar and thin trading volumes, as appeared to be responsive to slowing Ukrainian shipping paces, and the bad weather conditions in South America.
Soybeans ended the day nearly unchanged after Argentina announced it would reestablish the preferential currency exchange for soybean exports until the end of the year.
Doubts are also rising on export demand for U.S. grain and oilseeds, weighening on the market too.
Better than expected weekly soymeal export data released by USDA helped to limit losess.
Soy oil prices were dragged down by crude oil price and by lakluster weekly export data.
Wheat prices were mixed, amid a stronger dollar, lackluster U.S. export data, and worries about new hurdles for Ukrainian grain shippers.
There was also some weakness at play, as the large Russian crop continues to loom over markets even as European wheat supplies remain the most sought after on the world market currently.
The delayed Weekly Export Sales report from USDA, showed 1.85 MMT of corn was booked during the week of 11/17.
That was near the low end of estimates.
Accumulated commitments are now at 17.75 MMT with 5.4 MMT shipped to date, compared to the USDA’s 54.6 MMT November WASDE forecast.
New crop 2023/24 forward sales sit at 939k MT compared to 564k MT at this time last year.
As for soybean, Weekly Export Sales data had a 9 week low for soybean bookings with 690k MT sold during the week of 11/17.
Shipments were up by 20% on the week to 2.432 MMT for a season total of 16.95 MMT.
That is still 20% behind last year’s pace but is 30% of the Nov WASDE forecast.
For the products, the weekly report showed 516k MT of meal was sold – a 5-wk high, and 97 MT of net cancelations for soy oil.
Traders were looking for 150k-300k MT for meal and >20,000 MT for soy oil.
Accumulated bean oil exports trail last year’s pace by 80% through the first month and a half.
As for wheat, FAS had 511,796 MT of wheat bookings during the week that ended 11/17.
That was a 4-wk high and 3rd most for a week this season.
Trade ideas for this were for between 250,000-600,000 MT.
However, wheat commitments sit at 13.3 MMT, compared to 14.24 MMT last year and the 21.1 MMT WASDE forecast.
In this context, commodity funds on Friday were net sellers in 7,000 lots of wheat and 1,000 lots of soybean.
They were net buyers in 2,000 lots of corn.
Cash corn prices were largely unchanged on Friday, though basis weakened slightly at a pair of processors on each side of the Corn Belt.
Basis, however, remained mixed on either side of the Corn Belt, with premiums favoring the West and discounts prevalent in the East. Processors and ethanol plants continued to command cash premiums, while river terminals bound for U.S. Gulf export markets were still trading at a discount to futures prices.
Cash soybean prices increased at an Indiana crush plant, but basis offerings remained mostly flat during the quiet end week’s trading session.
Cash offerings were increasingly mixed at Eastern Corn Belt elevators.
Basis remained strong at crush plants across the Heartland, while river terminals continue to offer discounted cash bids.
Meal cash offers were largely unchanged.
Cash prices for soft red winter wheat in the Eastern Corn Belt were largely unchanged, holding steady at a $0.30/bushel discount to futures prices.
Basis offerings for hard red winter wheat in the Southern Plains was also flat but showed signs of firming at a Kansas location.
Bids into U.S. Gulf export markets also strengthened, though protein premiums weakened.
On this morning, Chicago wheat slid around 1.5% to its lowest in three months.
Soybeans and corn both lost ground.
Notabily, the most-active wheat contract on the Chicago Board of Trade was down 1.5% at $7.85 a bushel, as of 03:38 GMT, after hitting its lowest since Aug. 26 at $7.84 earlier in the session.
Soybeans gave up 0.7% to $14.26-1/2 a bushel and corn lost 1% to $6.64-3/4 a bushel.
A lack of major production issues from key exporters, except Argentina, has kept the market in a steady downtrend.
U.S. wheat is not competitive on the world markets.
Grains market has been also pressured by supplies from the Black Sea region, as a more steady flow of grain came out from Ukraine.
Protests in China also raised concerns over demand, weighing on prices.
In energy markets, oil prices fell 2% on Friday, closing a week marked by worries about Chinese demand and haggling over a Western price cap on Russian oil.
Brent crude futures, indeed, settled down $1.71, or 2%, to trade at $83.63 a barrel.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were down $1.66, or 2.1%, at $76.28 a barrel.
Both contracts posted their third consecutive weekly declines after hitting 10-month lows past week.
Notabily, Brent ended the week down 4.6%, while WTI fell 4.7%.
China, on Friday reported a new daily record for COVID-19 infections.
This started to hit fuel demand, with traffic drifting down and implied oil demand around 1 million barrels per day lower than average.
Meanwhile, G7 and European Union diplomats have been discussing a Russian oil price cap between $65 and $70 a barrel, but an agreement has still not been reached.
A meeting of European Union government representatives, scheduled for Friday evening to discuss the proposal, was cancelled, EU diplomats said.
Meantime, Poland is seeking German support to surpasse EU sanctions on the Polish-German section of the Druzhba crude pipeline so Warsaw can abandon the deal and buy Russian oil next year without paying penalties.
On this morning, oil prices slumped as street protests against strict COVID-19 curbs in China, stoked concern about the outlook for fuel demand.
Hundreds of demonstrators and police clashed in Shanghai on Sunday night as protests flared for a third day and spread to several cities in the wake of a deadly fire in the country’s far west.
Thus, Brent crude dropped $2.43, or 2.9%, to trade at $81.20 a barrel at 0731 GMT, after diving more than 3% to $80.61 earlier in the session – its lowest since Jan. 4.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude slid $2.16, or 2.8%, to $74.12 a barrel.
It fell as far as $73.60 earlier, its lowest since Dec. 22, 2021.
In ocean freight markets, the Baltic Exchange’s dry bulk sea freight index was up this week, hitting a seven-week peak on higher rates for the bigger capesize segment on Friday.
The overall index, indeed, jumped 82 points, or about 6.6%, to 1,324 on Friday.
The index gained 11.4% over the week, its highest since early October.
Notabily, the capesize index extended its winning streak for the third day, up 229 points, or 16.6%, to 1,613.
The index gained 43.8% in the week to a two-month high.
Average daily earnings for capesizes, which typically transport 150,000-tonne cargoes of coal and steel-making ingredient iron ore, increased $1,894 to $13,373 on Friday, extending a rally on recently unveiled support measures for China’s property sector.
The panamax index gained for the second day and edged up 13 points, or 0.9%, at 1,479.
However, the index fell for the fifth consecutive week losing 7.2%.
Average daily earnings for panamax vessels, which usually carry coal or grain cargoes of about 60,000 tonnes to 70,000 tonnes, increased by $115 to $13,310.
The supramax index added 8 points to 1,182 for the day.
It was up 1% for the week, ending a seven-week losing streak.
In equity markets, US stocks on Friday settled mixed.
The S&P 500 fell 1.14 points, or less than 0.1%, to close at 4,026.12.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 152.97 points, or 0.4%, to 34,347.03.
The Nasdaq fell 58.96 points, or 0.5%, to 11,226.36.
Global stock markets saw support from new Chinese stimulus measures after the People’s Bank of China reduced the reserve requirement ratio for most banks by -25 bp to 11.00% from 11.25%, effective Dec 5.
Bloomberg reported that Vista Equity Partners is exploring an acquisition of Coupa Software, then company shares rallied more than +6%, supporting stocks.
Managed healthcare stocks also rose on Friday.
Retailers were mixed as shoppers headed to stores for Black Friday.
Home Depot rose 1.5% and Best Buy fell 1.4%.
Airlines and other travel-related companies gained ground as the busy holiday travel season kicks in.
United Airlines rose 1.7%.
However, technology stocks, were weaker and pressured the overall market.
Apple, indeed, closed down nearly -2% after Chinese authorities locked down the city of Zhengzhou, home to Apple’s largest iPhone manufacturing site.
Also, a fall of more than -4% in Activision Blizzard weighed on tech stocks after Politico reported that the US Federal Trade Commission is likely to file an antitrust lawsuit to block Microsoft’s $69 billion deal to buy the company.
U.S. crude oil prices fell and weighed down energy stocks.
However, all three indexes ended the Thanksgiving week with gains, led by the Dow, which rose 1.78%.
On this morning, shares skidded in Asia.
The unrest in China is the boldest show of public dissent against the ruling Communist Party in years.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fell 2.1% to 17,211.76 , after briefly dipping more than 4%.
The Shanghai Composite index lost 1.3% to 3,061.69.
On Friday, China’s central bank had sought to boost the economy by easing its reserve requirement ratio, the proportion of assets banks must hold in reserve, by a quarter percentage point to 7.8%.
However, that news was overshadowed by rising numbers of virus cases and the protests.
Elsewhere, Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 index shed 0.4% to 28,162.83 and the Kospi in Seoul lost 1.3% to 2,408.76.
In Sydney, the S&P/ASX 200 shed 0.4% to 7,229.10 following the release of weaker than expected retail sales data.
Bangkok’s SET was 0.2% lower while the Sensex in Mumbai added 0.4%.
In currency trading, the U.S. dollar crept higher across the board in what looked like a quiet session, on Friday.
However it remained near multi-month lows as the prospect of the Federal Reserve moderating the pace of its policy tightening weighed on the U.S. currency.
U.S. Treasury yields, indeed, gave up earlier gains after already falling on Wednesday after the Fed’s November meeting minutes indicated agreement that rate hiking could be slowed.
Benchmark 10-year notes were down 1.5 basis points to 3.694%, from 3.709% late on Wednesday.
The 30-year bond was last up 1.3 basis points to yield 3.7554%, from 3.742%.
The 2-year note was last down 1.4 basis points to yield 4.469%, from 4.483%.
In this context, the dollar index rose 0.21% past Friday, while the euro was down 0.07% to $1.0401.
The Japanese yen weakened 0.33% versus the greenback at 139.08 per dollar, while Sterling was last trading at $1.2082, down 0.23% on the day.
Wall Street will get several big economic updates this week.
The Conference Board business group will release its November report on consumer confidence, which could give investors more insight on how consumers are dealing with inflation.
The U.S. government also will release its closely watched monthly employment report.
Meantime, on this morning the dollar dropped 0.46% against the yen to 138.46 after initially trading higher earlier in the day.
The euro fell 0.4% at 1.0359, having gained 4.94% in a month.
The dollar index , was up at 106.39.
Going back to analyzing the other agricultural markets …
In Canada, producers’ deliveries of common wheat in week 16 of the shipping season, were at 586,8k mt.
That was sharply higher from 280,1k posted a week erlier.
Deliveries of durum wheat, were also up to 186k mt from 105.6k mt a week earlier.
Canada exported 447.8k mt of common wheat in week 16 of the shipping season.
That was up from 416.6k mt posted a week earlier.
Durum wheat exports, also were stronger at 205.2k mt, up from 75.2k mt a week earlier.
Cumulative exports for common wheat are now at 5.981,2k mt.
That is compared with 3.922.5k mt year ago to date.
As for durum wheat, cumulative exports reached 1.283,0k mt, vs 1.046,1k mt year ago to date.
Meantime, total Commercial Stocks of common wheat stood at 2.682,2k mt, up from 2.601,4k mt a week earlier.
Durum total commercial stocks were also higher at 766,6k mt, sligthly up from 764,6k mt posted the prior week.
Cash bids for durum wheat were lower at the end of past week.
Indeed, looking at the average regional price of C$493.07/mt as of Nov 25, that was C$6.92/mt weaker from Friday to Friday.
From South America, protests over Brazil’s election result that blocked roads in Mato Grosso state earlier past week, had lifted truck freight prices, affecting the operations and margins of global grain traders at a time when farmers are selling their abundant second corn crop.
Notabily, truck freight rose 20% or 50 reais ($9.40) per tonne in Mato Grosso, Abiove said last Thursday.
The most affected routes are the Sorriso-Miritituba and the Sinop Miritituba to Brazil’s northern ports.
As a result of the disruption, certain Abiove members expressed concern about failing to honor corn export contracts or facing demurrage costs.
However, Brazil’s federal highway police said all Mato Grosso federal roads are clear at the current time as authorities had acted to lift the blockades that had caused long lines of trucks in some places.
Abiove declined to estimate by how much Brazil’s overall corn export volumes could be affected in November as a result of the protests.
Meanwhile, Anec past week, projected overall exports this month at 6.4 million tonnes.
On the other hand, according to Argus Media, Brazil’s wheat imports from Russia may hit a new high this season.
Brazil has already started to seek alternatives to Argentinian crop, due lower crop forecasted.
Wheat imports from Argentina fell to a multi-year low of 122,500t in October from 475,000t the same time a year earlier.
Meanwhile, imports from the US totalled 101,200t, up from just 16,500t in October last year.
And Russia made a return to the Brazilian market, delivering 31,100t of wheat in October.
There are two more vessels carrying 61,500t of Russian wheat are currently heading to Brazilian ports, while line-up data suggest that a further 38,300t of product is earmarked for Brazil.
Including already delivered volumes in October, Brazil’s receipts from Russia would total 130,900t so far in 2022-23.
However, receipts from Russia could reach a new high of 240,000t by the end of the marketing year.
Importing of Russian wheat to Brazil, indeed, costs less than buying from Argentina.
On a cif Brazil basis, to date, Russian wheat would be $22/t cheaper than its Argentinian equivalent, in spite higher freight rates.
The spread between origins is even wider on a fob basis.
In Argentina, country’s soybean planting for the 2022/23 cycle is facing severe delays compared to last year.
The country is enduring a prolonged drought and expects only scant rainfall in the coming days, the Buenos Aires Grains exchange said on Thursday.
So far just 19.4% of the area has been planted, the exchange said in a weekly report, 19.9 percentage points behind this time last year.
Though this year’s planting area is forecast at 16.7 million hectares (41.3 million acres) – slightly above last cycle’s 16.3 million hectares (40.3 million acres), the drought has left very little moisture in the soil.
Last cycle, farmers produced 43.3 million tonnes of soybean.
Meantime, the government will reestablish a preferential currency exchange for soybean exports until the end of the year, an economy ministry source said on Friday.
That means that Argentine farmers will be incentivized to sell soybeans aggressively until at least $3 billion in sales have been raised.
Corn planting is also facing delays, the exchange added.
Until Wednesday, producers had planted 23.8% of the 7.3 million hectares expected for the 2022/23 crop, 6.2 percentage points behind this time last year.
According to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, for week ending 23 Nov, wheat harvesting in Argentina was estimated at 13pc complete (vs 32pc five-year average).
Conditions of the 2022-23 crop are rated at 48pc fair/excellent (91pc year ago).
Good progress was noted in the northern cropping regions, but with yields seen up to 40pc below average due to earlier dryness and frosts.
Harvest is also advanced in central areas, with productivity in central-northern parts of Cordoba estimated to be 36pc below average.
However, recent rainfall helped to limit yield losses in parts of Santa Fe, where results are seen close to the previous season.
The southern growing areas, including parts of Buenos Aires and La Pampa, continued to witness crop damage following earlier frosts, with further production downgrades possible.
As a results, the exchange projects Argentina’s wheat production at 12.4 million tonnes this cycle.
In Europe, grain and oilseed prices on Euronext rebounded slightly on Friday.
The European Commission on Friday cut its estimate of this year’s drought-hit maize harvest in the European Union to a new 15-year low while again raising its projection for this season’s maize imports.
Notabily, the Commission reduced its estimate of usable production of maize in the EU in 2022/23 to 53.3 million tonnes from 54.9 million a month ago, further confirming the crop will be the smallest since 2007.
The latest production cut reflected downward revisions to area and/or yield in Romania and to a lesser extent in France.
Meantime, the Commission increased its EU maize import forecast in the 2022/23 season to 23.0 million tonnes from the 22.0 million estimate a month earlier.
EU maize imports have been running at more than double last season’s pace.
For soft wheat, the Commission reduced its outlook for exports in 2022/23 to 34.0 million tonnes against the 36.0 million forecast a month ago.
Some soft wheat demand was shifted towards livestock feed use, with a 1 million tonne increase.
But the lower export forecast together with a 1 million tonne upward revision to imports led the Commission to increase its forecast of soft wheat stocks by the end of 2022/23 to 15.5 million tonnes from 13.7 million in October.
In oilseeds, the Commission cut sharply its estimate of the bloc’s sunflower seed crop, which like maize was hurt by torrid summer weather, with production now pegged at 9.3 million tonnes against 10 million previously.
For rapeseed, estimated 2022/23 output was trimmed to 19.4 million tonnes from 19.6 million but remained well above last season’s 17.1 million tonnes.
Meantime, according to FranceAgriMer, French farmers had sown 98% of the expected soft wheat area for next year’s harvest by Nov. 21, against 97% a week earlier.
That is compared with 97% progress by the same week last year.
French soft wheat and winter barley crops are still about a week ahead of their usual rate of development following a mild autumn.
Soft wheat, had emerged from the ground on about 93% of the expected crop area by Nov. 21, with the median date of emergence six days earlier than the average of the past five years.
Soft wheat crops on 38% of the area had also reached the subsequent tillering stage, when shoots start to form from the stem, compared with just 7% a year ago.
For winter barley, crops had emerged on 97% of the area and development pace was seven days ahead of the five-year average.
Crops had started tillering on 59% of the area versus 21% a year ago.
The fast initial growth has raised concern about crops being vulnerable to frost, although a progressive cooling in temperatures expected in the week ahead may slow development and improve plants’ hardiness.
Nearly all soft wheat and winter barley remained in good shape, with 98% of crops for both varieties rated as being in good or excellent condition, according to FranceAgriMer.
For durum wheat, sowing was 84% complete and crops had emerged on 58% of the area.
In UK, Tesco, Britain’s biggest supermarket group, will provide close to 14 million pounds ($17 million) of additional support to the country’s struggling egg industry, it said on Friday.
The UK egg industry is currently in crisis with shortages leading to rationing by major supermarkets including Tesco, Asda and Lidl.
Retailers have blamed the shortages on Britain’s largest ever outbreak of Avian flu, which has led to some birds being culled, and on an element of panic buying.
However, producers say the main reason is that they are for eggs to take account of soaring feed and energy costs, which has forced some out of the industry, reducing capacity.
Tesco said its commitment to provide a further 13.9 million pounds of support until March 2023 takes its total support to 27.5 million pounds since March this year.
It said the support will be paid to suppliers to cover the cost of handling, processing and egg production, including any increases in feed for farmers.
($1 = 0.8277 pounds).
From North Africa, Egypt, registered 40 mills on its new commodities exchange in preparation for the first offering of wheat done yesterday.
GASC is set to sell wheat to mills from its strategic reserves via the new commodities exchange, making an offering on the exchange twice a week from Nov. 27.
The quantities and their specifications will be announced less than an hour before trading.
Meantime, Egypt’s wheat reserves are sufficient for more than five months of consumption, deputy supply and internal trade minister, Ibrahim Ashmawy, said on Saturday.
Egypt’s vegetable oil reserves are sufficient for nearly five months as well, he added.
From the Black Sea basin, since the Ukrainian grain deal, was extended beyond Nov. 19, no more than five ships a day have departed Ukraine, U.N. data show.
That was down from previous weeks and months when up to 10 departed.
A U.N. spokesperson, Ismini Palla, said vessel flows were affected by past uncertainty over extending the deal, poor Istanbul weather conditions for inspections, and a rotation of new staff and inspectors at a Joint Coordination Centre (JCC).
Some 112 vessels await checks in waters off Istanbul, including some stalled more than a month, the four-party JCC said past Wednesday, adding it was discussing ways to ramp up successful inspections.
Meantime, despite the reopening of the export corridor, the massive barrage of missiles that have targeted power infrastructure throughout the Ukraine past week, has left a part of the country without power, including the port of Odessa.
As a results, shipping delays reached out to two weeks and the cost of execution is getting more punchy.
Meantime, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy hosted a summit in Kyiv with allied nations on Saturday to launch a plan to export $150 million worth of grain to countries most vulnerable to famine and drought.
Notabily, Zelenskiy said Kyiv had raised $150 million from more than 20 countries and the European Union to export grain to countries including Ethiopia, Sudan, South Sudan, Somalia and Yemen.
“We plan to send at least 60 vessels from Ukrainian ports to countries that most face the threat of famine and drought,” Zelenskiy told the gathering.
The summit was attended in-person by the prime ministers of Belgium, Poland and Lithuania and the president of Hungary.
Germany and France’s presidents and the head of the European Commission delivered speeches by video.
In a video address, French President Emmanuel Macron announced a contribution of 6 million euros ($6.24 million) for the transport and distribution by the World Food Programme of Ukrainian grain to Yemen and Sudan.
The “Grain from Ukraine” initiative would demonstrating global food security is “not just empty words” for Kyiv.
The Kremlin had said food exported from Ukraine’s Black Sea ports under the U.N.-brokered plan had not been reaching the most vulnerable countries.
On the other hand, Russian fertiliser exports may drop 10% in 2022, TASS news agency reported on Friday, citing the deputy minister of industry and trade.
Representatives from Russia and Ukraine met in the United Arab Emirates to discuss the possibility of a prisoner-of-war swap that would be linked to a resumption of Russian ammonia exports, which go to Asia and Africa, via a Ukrainian pipeline.
The talks were being mediated by the Gulf Arab state and did not include the United Nations.
Talks aim to remove remaining obstacles easing global food shortages, by unblocking Ukrainian and Russian exports.
The Ukrainian ambassador to Turkey, Vasyl Bodnar, said that “releasing our prisoners of war is part of negotiations over opening Russian ammonia exports”.
Putin had said last Wednesday that Russian officials would work to unblock Russian fertilisers stuck in European ports and to resume ammonia exports.
UAE’s Assistant Minister of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation, said Abu Dhabi remains firmly committed to help keep channels of communication open, encourage dialogue and support diplomacy to end the war in Ukraine.
Abu Dhabi’s efforts follow in the footsteps of Saudi Arabia, which scored a diplomatic win by securing freedom for foreign fighters captured in Ukraine in September.
The UAE, like Saudi Arabia, is a member of the OPEC+ oil alliance that includes Russia and has also maintained good ties with Moscow despite Western pressure to help isolate Russia.
Meantime, on Friday, the Russian agriculture ministry revised the export tax for wheat, corn and barley.
Particularly, as of Nov. 30, the export duty on wheat will slightly increase to 2,788.0 from 2,735.2 rubles per ton a week earlier.
The duty on barley, in contrast, will decrease to 2,308.6 rubles from 2,430.0 rubles per ton a week earlier.
Ditto for corn, that will down to 0 rubles from 193.8 rubles a week earlier.
This new duty rates will be in effect through December 6, inclusive.
The duties were calculated based on indicative prices: $313.6 per ton for wheat ($312.5 a week earlier), $283.7 for barley ($286.7), $222.1 for corn ($233.9).
From the Middle Kingdom, winter grain sowing across China is completed over 99 percent.
Experts said on Saturday that the smooth sowing this season has laid a solid foundation for the harvest next year, ensuring nation’s food supply while facilitating economic growth.
Henan’s winter wheat planting area has been maintained around 85 million mu in the year (15 mu = 1 hectar).
According to a report by the People’s Daily on Friday, more than 11.9 million mu of winter wheat has sprouted in Henan’s Zhumadian city.
An official from MOA said, they will work on stabilizing the wheat planting area above 335 million mu.
Meantime, China sold 39,995 tonnes of wheat, or 100% of the total offer, at an auction of state reserves on Nov. 23, said the National Grain Trade Center on Monday.
The wheat was sold at an average price of 2,815 yuan ($389.59) per tonne.
China has managed to see steadily increased grain production, with output stabilizing at more than 1.3 trillion jin (650 million tons) for seven consecutive years, and reaching a record high of 1.3657 trillion jin in 2021, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).
The steady growth continued also in 2022, with the nation’s summer grain output hitting 294.8 billion jin, is a record high, and an increase of 2.87 billion jin over the previous year.
In add, a bumper autumn harvest is well expected, as 98 percent of autumn grain nationwide has been harvested as of Saturday, according to MOA.
Though China has only 9 percent of the world’s arable land and 6 percent of the freshwater resource, it has been capable of feeding one-fifth of the global population.
With this policy, China’s per capita grain supply hit 483 kilograms in 2021.
That is higher than the internationally recognized safety line of 400 kilograms.
In the first three quarters of the year, the overall agricultural and rural economy maintained a sound momentum of development, with the added value of the primary industry coming in at 5.48 billion yuan, up by 4.2 percent year-on-year.
That has provided solid support for ensuring people’s livelihoods, preventing inflation and stabilizing the economy, MOA said at a quarterly press conference on October 29.
In addition, the trade volume of the country’s agricultural products totaled $248.51 billion in the first nine months of 2022, up 10.4 percent year-on-year.
Exports jumped 21.5 percent over the same period last year, while imports rose 6.4 percent, MOA data showed.
($1 = 7.2255 Chinese yuan renminbi).
From Southeast Asia, exports of Malaysian palm oil products for Nov. 1 – 25 were seen climbing between 4.1% and 12.9%.
As a results, Malaysian palm oil futures jumped on Friday, marking the first week of gains in three, as positive export data and strong vegetable oil prices on the Dalian Commodity Exchange boosted prices ahead of a long weekend.
Notabily, the benchmark palm oil contract for February delivery on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange gained 94 ringgit, or 2.33%, to 4,134 ringgit ($923.80) per tonne by Friday.
The contract gained 7.37% for the week.
The Malaysian bourse is closed today for a public holiday.
($1 = 4.4750 ringgit).
In India, farmers have planted wheat on 15.3 million hectares since Oct. 1, when the current sowing season began, up nearly 11% from a year ago, the government data showed on Friday, as record high prices have encouraged planting.
Farmers have also increased acreage under rapeseed, the key winter-sown oilseed, to 7.1 million hectares as of Nov. 25, up from last year’s 6.2 million hectares, the Ministry of Agriculture & Farmers’ Welfare said in its weekly update of sowing data.
From Australia, local markets continued to feel the heat of harvest, and a clear run now, with wheat and barley markets coming off a further $5-8/t across the board on Friday.
Wheat price fell for nearby delivery last week where bids pulled back $15-20/t.
The market continued to be surprised by the better than expected quality of wheat being harvested.
ASX eastern wheat WM January 23 fell from A$450/t on Friday 18 November to $423.50/t on 25 November daytime trade, then lower to $418/t late Friday and to $412/t this morning.
A mostly dry couple of days on the forecast, with rain starting to build in southern Qld on Wednesday and extending into northern NSW on Thursday.
The forecast is relatively dry elsewhere.
On the international trade scene, South Korean animal feed maker Nonghyup Feed Inc. (NOFI) has started buying animal feed corn in an international tender on Monday with about 68,000 tonnes believed to have been purchased so far.
The tender seeks up to 138,000 tonnes all for March 2023 arrival in South Korea so more purchasing is possible.
The first corn was bought in a combination of an estimated outright price of $331.99 a tonne c&f and also at a premium of 179 cents a bushel c&f over the March 2023 Chicago corn contract plus a $1.75 a tonne surcharge for additional port unloading.
Seller was believed to be trading house Olam with corn arrival in South Korea around March 10.
Watching this week’s market, the week starts out in typical fashion, with the Export Inspections report today in the afternoon.
The final NASS Crop Progress report for the season will be released overnight after the sessions close.
On Wednesday EIA will release ethanol production and stocks data.
It is also first notice day for December grain futures.
Thursday is the first day of December, with the Export Sales report out in the afternoon.
USDA will release monthly domestic use data, via the Grain Crushing, Fats & Oils, and Cotton Systems report.
Friday rounds out the week with the expiration of December live cattle options.
That’s all, thank you.
We wish you a good day and a good start to the week.
Author: Sandro F. Puglisi
