US farm markets, continued to be very volatile past week!
Corn market on Friday, ended with prices near to unchange with May contract the strongest on the day, as gained 0.28%.
Corn futures rallied above $8 to close above that mark on a weekly basis for the first time since August 2012, and approaching so to all time highs.
May deadline, indeed, was up 3.18% on the week, while December 3.69% higher.
Through April, May contract rallied 69 1/2 cents and December rallied 67 1/2.
Soybeans have seen an up and down week, yanked sometime up by soybean oil which made a splash, sometime down by soymeal, that was not as bullish.
Soybeans, indeed, faded during Friday’s afternoon session and closed mostly lower within just 0.1% gains in the May contract.
Consequentially, soybean prices couldn’t pull out gains on old crop contracts past week, with May down 0.45% for the week, meanwhile, new crop November was up 0.64% week on week.
Soymeal prices went home just 0.07% in the black on Friday, though off their highs for the day by more than $20.
Soymeal, was the drag on the market once again past week, as was down 3.99% from Friday to Friday.
Profit takings left the soybean oil prices 143 to 242 points under their new all time highs, as shedded 1.58% on the end week session.
Soy oil, however, rose to all time highs and were up 7.1% on the week.
For the month, front month soybean prices were up 90 cents/bu, soymeal prices were down $27/ton, soybeanoil prices were 19.23 c/lb higher.
As for wheat, it was a mixed complex again this past week, continuing the negative trend from prior week.
Wheat prices, indeed, closed the Friday session with a sharp pullback as CBOT SRW ended 2.82% lower; Kansas City wheat prices closed down by 3.70%; MPLS spring wheat markets ended 2.46% lower.
For the week, Chicago wheat was down 2.04% since the prior Friday.
Kansas City HRW was the leader to the downside, showing a 4.24% losse for the week.
MPLS was the strongest of the three markets, meanwhile, closing up by 0.09% on the prior week.
Chicago wheat futures, however, are up more then 40% in three months, and they had a third straight monthly gain.
The most-active wheat contract on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT), indeed, has gained almost 5% in April.
Corn had a fifth monthly gain, adding 8.5% this month, while soybeans are up 4.4%.
In energy markets, oil prices fell last Friday, reversing in volatile trade, pulled downward by the U.S. heating oil contract that plummeted by more than 20% at one point on the day of its expiration.
The front-month U.S. heating oil contract , which is a proxy for diesel prices, soared to a record high of $5.8595 a gallon before falling as low as $4.4067 a gallon.
Diesel futures have climbed as investors were worried about tight supplies globally following the conflict in Ukraine.
The heating oil contract expired on Friday, along with the global Brent benchmark and U.S. gasoline futures .
Volumes in all three front-month contracts was low, creating outsized volatility in the market and leading to late-day sell-offs, analysts said.
The front-month heating oil contract’s volatility, indeed, was not mirrored in the more-active second-month U.S. heating oil contract , which gained $0.0088 a gallon to settle at $4.0172 a gallon.
In this context, the more-active second-month Brent crude futures contract fell 12 cents to settle at $107.14 a barrel, while the expiring front-month contract rose $1.75 to settle at $109.34 a barrel.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude , which does not expired on Friday, fell 67 cents to settle at $104.69 a barrel, as traders sold energy contracts across the board.
However, both Brent and WTI rose for the week and posted their fifth straight monthly gain.
Brent, indeed, ended the month up 1.3%, while WTI ended up 4.4%.
Prices have been buoyed by fears that Russian supply will continue to be disrupted by the conflict in Ukraine.
Russian oil production, indeed, could fall by as much as 17% this year, as showed an economy ministry document this week, as Western sanctions hurt investments and exports in Russia.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies are likely to stick to their existing deal and agree another small output increase for June when it meets on May 5.
Still, there are bearish demand factors looming.
China, indeed, has shown no signs of easing lockdown measures which have hit its economy and global supply chains.
Also, the oil and gas rig count, an indicator of future supply, showed U.S. oil rigs rose by three to 552 this week.
In this context, oil prices fell on Monday in holiday-sapped trade in Asia as concerns about weak economic growth in China, outweighed fears of potential supply stress from a looming European Union ban on Russian crude.
Thus, Brent crude futures fell $1.13, or 1.1%, to $106.01 a barrel at 05:11 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures fell $1, or 1%, to $103.69 a barrel.
Markets in Japan, India and across Southeast Asia were closed for public holidays on Monday.
Prices fell after China released data on Saturday showing that factory activity in the world’s second-largest economy contracted for a second month to its lowest since February 2020 because of COVID lockdowns.
On the supply side, Libya’s National Oil Corp (NOC) said on Sunday it would temporarily resume operations at the Zueitina oil terminal to reduce stockpiles in storage tanks to avert an “imminent environmental disaster” at the port.
NOC in late April declared force majeure on some shipments at Zueitina as political protesters forced a number of oil facilities to suspend operations.
While Western countries have curbed buying Russian oil as sanctions have hit shipping and insurance for the country’s exports, the impact on global supply has been cushioned as India has been picking up heavily discounted Russian cargoes.
Royal Bank of Canada analysts estimated India’s crude imports from Russia have grown from less than 100,000 bpd in 2021 to 800,000 bpd in April and expect India to continue ramping up imports as long as Washington does not impose secondary sanctions.
In freight markets, the Baltic Exchange’s main sea freight index rose last Friday, gaining for a third straight month, on strength in the panamax segment.
The overall index, indeed, rose 1 points, or 0.04%, to 2,404 points.
It added nearly 2% this month.
The Capesize market had a positive week overall with the BCI and 5TC route average at 2003 points and $16,609, closing at 2,136 and $17,713, despite on Friday fell 13 points, or 0.6%.
The first half of the week remained positive amid strong support from the Pacific.
The C5 West Australia to China trade continued to climb from last week, but lost ground from the high of $12.245 gradually to below $12 by the weekend.
It was reported that in first quarter of 2022, China’s iron ore imports from Brazil were down a massive 24% year-on-year, which was still significantly higher than the volumes from Australia.
Later in the week the market saw increased enquiry from Brazil, as well as west coast Africa.
The C3 Brazil to Qingdao run settled at $25.457 on Friday, which was a decline of close to a dollar compared with Monday.
The north Atlantic region was generally balanced, brokers said.
The index has risen nearly 22.1% in the month of April.
The market will return on Tuesday after a long weekend in both the east and west.
The panamax index gained 24 points, or 0.8%, to 2,938 points last Friday.
It fell about 6% for the month.
Overall, the Panamax market returned a lacklustre week with momentum lacking.
The Atlantic market contracted early on, then rebounded, as the week ended and bids in the north returned a little stronger.
An 81,000-dwt delivery Continent fixed midweek a fronthaul trip via US Gulf redelivery China at $37,000, typifying the mean average rate for route P2A on the week.
Asia, by contrast, had limited support on some of the longer round trips via NoPac and Australia route P3A lost $1,000 over the course of this week.
Rates on the shorter Indonesian round trips softened, with talk of an overage 76,000-dwt giving delivery China rumoured to have agreed a rate in the region of $13/14,000 levels for an Indonesian coal round.
Period news remained thin.
An 81,000-dwt agreed a rate of $30,000 for five to seven months trading at the start of the week, although other activity was very limited.
The supramax index fell 2 points to 2,734 points on Friday.
Whilst in the Atlantic healthy demand was seen from the US Gulf, other areas had a rather lacklustre feel.
Asia also saw split sentiment as from the south little fresh enquiry appeared from Indonesia.
Further north, with congestion still being seen in China, fresh tonnage position remained thin.
Period enquiry was healthy, a 63,000-dwt open China fixing one year at $31,000 and in the Atlantic another 63,000-dwt open US Gulf fixing 24 months trading at $24,500.
Strongest gains were seen from the US Gulf.
A 63,000-dwt fixed from here for a trip to Sweden at around $60,000 and there was also healthy demand from North Asia.
A 56,000-dwt fixed from China to the Mediterranean at $35,000. However, it was a mixed bag from the Indian Ocean.
A 57,000-dwt open Chittagong fixed via EC India to China in the mid $17,000s during midweek and as the week closed a 63,900-dwt was heard fixed delivery Mumbai trip via Arabian Gulf redelivery Chittagong at $38,000.
As for Handysize, with mainly positive sentiment in both basins, the BHSI made gains.
This was largely due to the US Gulf which saw numbers increase day-on-day.
A 38,000-dwt fixed from Houston to the Continent with an intended cargo of wood pellets at $38,000.
And East Coast South also remained positive with a 38,000-dwt at Recalada rumoured to have fixed a trip to West Coast South America at $53,000.
Another unnamed large handy fixed at around $44,000 for a trip from Recalada to North Brazil.
A 37,000-dwt fixed from the UK to East Coast Mexico with an intended cargo of fertiliser at $24,000 for the first 40 days and $27,000 for the balance.
In South East Asia, a 37,000-dwt was fixed via North Australia to China in the high $20,000s.
Period activity saw a 32,000-dwt open in China fixing three to five months trading at $29,500 and a 37,000-dwt in Brazil fixing three to five months at $31,500 both worldwide redelivery.
On week 17, there was a sharp decrease in freight rates in the Azov and Black Sea region.
The freight level for shipment of a 3K parcel of wheat from Azov to Marmara sea ports has reached the level of $63 pmt.
Many charterers and shipowners expect that the Russian May holidays will be marked by a further reduction in freight to the level of the average 50ies, Sea Lines shipbrokers report.
The number of cargoes in the market is small, as the demand for grain from Turkey remains low.
More requests appear for the Italian direction.
Despite the opening of navigation on the Russian river a few weeks ago, this direction still remains unpopular.
So far, major players in the grain market, traditionally actively buying grain from the Volga region, do not express interest in buying goods from this region.
At the same time, the remnants of last year’s harvest are still not exported, and some companies plan to start shipping them in late May and early June, primarily to the Marmara Sea ports and Mersin.
According to Sea Lines, on week 17, freight rates for wheat parcels from Azov made $61 to the Black Sea, $63 to Marmara, $77 to Mersin and $78 to Egypt.
Freight rates from Rostov AB (after bridge) were $1 above, from Rostov BB (before bridge) the same, from Yeisk and Taganrog $1 below, and from Temryuk $3 below those from the port of Azov.
In the Caspian, freight rates remained on the previous week’s level.
On week 17, freight rates for shipping corn by 3,000 dwt bulkers to Iran made $21 from Aktau, $26 from Makhachkala, and $31 from Astrakhan.
In equity markets, Wall Street slid last Friday to its deepest daily losses since 2020, as Amazon slumped following a gloomy quarterly report, and as the biggest surge in monthly inflation since 2005 spooked investors already worried about rising interest rates.
Amazon.com Inc, indee, tumbled 14.05%.
Apple Inc, dropped 3.66%.
Chevron Corp dropped 3.16% after its first-quarter profit underwhelmed.
Exxon Mobil Corp slipped 2.24% after it took a $3.4 billion writedown due to its exit from Russia.
All 11 S&P 500 sector indexes fell, led lower by a 5.9% slide in Consumer Discretionary and a 4.9% drop in Real Estate.
The S&P 500 logged it largest one-day decline since June 2020.
The Nasdaq’s decline was its largest since September 2020.
The Nasdaq has lost about 13% in April, its worst monthly performance since the global financial crisis in 2008.
The S&P 500 has fallen 13% so far in 2022, its steepest four-month decline to start any year since 1939.
Thus, the S&P 500 declined 3.63% to ended the end week session at 4,131.93 points.
The Nasdaq declined 4.17% to 12,334.64 points on Friday, while Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 2.77% to 32,977.21 points.
For the week, the S&P 500 lost 3.3%, the Nasdaq shed 3.9% and the Dow declined 2.5%.
As we said, stocks also slumped on signs of faster U.S. wage inflation that bolsters expectations for the Fed to raise interest rates aggressively after Friday’s data showed the U.S. Q1 employment cost index rose more than expected at a record pace.
However, U.S economic data Friday was mixed for stocks.
Overall Q1 corporate earnings results have been mostly supportive, with 86% of the S&P 500 companies that have reported results beating estimates.
U.S. Q1 employment cost index rose a record +1.4% q/q (data from 1996), stronger than expectations of +1.1% q/q.
Data showed the personal consumption expenditures price index – the Fed’s favored measure of inflation – shot up 0.9% in March after climbing 0.5% in February.
The U.S. Mar core PCE deflator rose +5.2% y/y, weaker than expectations of +5.3% y/y.
The U.S. Apr MNI Chicago PMI fell -6.5 to 56.4, weaker than expectations of 62.0.
The University of Michigan U.S. Apr consumer sentiment was unexpectedly revised lower by -0.5 to 65.2, weaker than expectations of no change at 65.7.
Meantime, a more than +2% rally in China’s Shanghai Composite on Friday was bullish for U.S. stocks after China’s Politburo vowed to meet economic growth targets and support tech platform companies’ “healthy” development.
They also vowed to guarantee “supply chains in key sectors” and smooth transport logistics.
Meantime, Asian shares slipped this morning following the sell-off last week on Wall Street.
Benchmarks declined in Japan, South Korea and Australia.
Trading was closed for holidays in China and other regional markets.
A report showing pandemic lockdowns have hurt factory activity in China, a main regional driver of growth, was a fresh source of concern.
The monthly purchasing managers’ index , released by China’s National Bureau of Statistics, fell to 47.4 in April, down from 49.5 in March on a 100-point scale.
Numbers below 50 show activity contracting.
In Japan, the Golden Week holidays are allowing people to take a vacation.
Thus, Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 declined 0.1% in afternoon trading to 26,814.78.
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 dropped 1.2% to 7,347.00.
South Korea’s Kospi shed 0.4% to 2,685.28.
Trading was closed in China for Labor Day, a national holiday.
In currencies trading, the dollar index during the end week session fell by -0.696 (-0.67%) to 102.963.
Month-end profit-taking weighed on the dollar last Friday as it fell back from Thursday’s 5-1/4 year high.
The yuan rebounded from a 17-month low and weighed on the dollar after China’s politburo vowed to take steps to boost China’s economy.
Mixed U.S. economic data Friday also sparked long liquidation in the dollar.
Thus, the EUR/USD on Friday rose by +0.0049 (+0.47%) to 1.0543.
EUR/USD Friday rose moderately as it consolidated above Thursday’s 5-1/4 year low.
Higher European government bond yields Friday sparked short-covering in the euro after Eurozone April core consumer prices rose at a record pace.
EUR/USD also garnered support on Friday’s data that showed Eurozone Q1 GDP expanding right on expectations.
The Eurozone Apr CPI of +7.5% y/y was right on expectations and unch from Mar at an all-time high.
Apr core CPI rose a record +3.5% y/y, stronger than expectations of +3.2% y/y.
Eurozone Q1 GDP rose +0.2% q/q and +5.0% y/y, right on expectations.
The German Mar import price index rose +31.2% y/y, stronger than expectations of +28.6% y/y and the fastest pace of increase in 47-1/2 years.
The USD/JPY past Friday fell by -0.99 (-0.76%) to 129.85.
USD/JPY fell back from Thursday’s 20-year high on month-end profit-taking and ahead of Golden Week holidays.
Trading activity in USD/JPY was subdued, with markets closed in Japan for the Showa Day holiday.
For the week, the EUR/USD fell 0.0251points or – 2.33%, while the USD/JPY gained 1.28 points or + 0.99%.
On the weather side, weather past week mostly mirrored prior week.
In the northern Plains states, more snow delayed spring planting in western North Dakota, southeastern Montana, northwestern South Dakota, and parts of Wyoming.
In eastern North Dakota, heavy rain on frozen soil caused extensive flooding.
In the central Plains, high winds continued to blow dust and fan wildfires in Nebraska.
In the southern Plains states, hot and windy weather withered the remaining soil moisture and further stressed HRW and HW wheat conditions.
Texas leads the country in topsoil moisture deficits.
In the PNW, beneficial rain continued to fall across the area.
More thunderstorms and heavy rains are expected to rake across the Midwest and Plains over the next several days.
An area stretching from Oklahoma up through North Dakota could gather another 1.5” or more until Tuesday, per the latest 72-hour cumulative precipitation map from NOAA.
The agency’s 8-to-14-day outlook predicts seasonally wet weather will stick around the Northern Plains between May 6 and May 12, with cooler-than-normal conditions likely for much of the Corn Belt during that time.
Forecasts for welcome rain coming to the southern plains sent HRW wheat values lower, and taking others with it.
Forecasts of near-normal rain for Kansas in the 6-10 day outlook are good, but the 8-14 day outlook of above-average rain for the region is providing some hope.
Ultimately HRW has three chances for relief between now and May 9.
The northern plains is also looking at a cooler/wet period over the next 10 days.
Showers and snow for the rest of this week will keep sowing stalled, and wet weather in Canada has also hampered fieldwork
Operators is all about planting progress.
The market will be looking for 18-20pc planted when the USDA report comes out overnight Monday versus an average of just under 35pc and 42pc at this time last year.
It already appears the crop will be late to get in and a yield penalty will be applied on working balance sheets.
Corn and soybean prices are at near-record highs, but the USs has sold record volumes of its staple crops for export in the upcoming cycle, potentially indicating demand will remain strong into 2023.
Meantime, the weekly Commitment of Traders report indicated spec trimming their large net long position by 18,455 contracts for the week ending on Tuesday, to 360,655 contracts.
Commercial corn traders closed 158k hedges through the week, with a 23,270 contract lighter net short of now 711,917 contracts.
As for soybean, Friday’s Commitment of Traders report indicated large managed money spec funds trimming their net long position as of April 26 by 6,246 contracts of futures and options.
They were net long 173,477 contracts at the close on Tuesday.
Commercial bean traders closed 43,156 hedges, with the short covering outweighing the long coverage by 11k for a now 268,934 contract net short.
As for wheat, Weekly CFTC data showed managed money slicing 290 contracts from their net long position in the week ending 4/26, leaving their Chicago net long at 14,180 contracts on that date.
They cut 4,434 contracts from their net long in KC to 45,407 contracts.
Managed money was 18,268 contracts net long in spring wheat as of the 4/26 settle.
That was a weekly slide of 1,599 contracts by way of long liquidation.
In this context, corn basis bids were steady to firm last Friday after rising 2 cents higher at an Illinois ethanol plant and 2 to 5 cents higher at two interior river terminals.
Soybean basis bids tilted 4 cents lower at an Ohio elevator but held steady elsewhere across the central U.S..
As for wheat, basis past week was flat in the Gulf and down slightly in the Pacific Northwest (PNW).
Basis was softer in the PNW as exporters try to entice more business and grain traders close long positions.
Basis was flat in the Gulf as exporters compete with domestic millers for supply.
Logistics continue to be a major obstacle.
The Surface Transportation Board (STB), indeed, hosted a two-day emergency public hearing past week to understand ongoing issues with U.S. based Class I railroads.
Freight rail in the U.S. has faced unprecedented challenges since the fall including significant delays and cancelled rail car deliveries.
Railroad executives have stated that they are unable to hire staff, but union officials argue that the railroads’ embrace of Precision Scheduled Railroading led to broad layoffs that created the staffing shortages in the first place.
Poor service by Class I railroads has been a leading cause of increased U.S. wheat basis in 2022 according to grain traders.
In Europe, the weekend was marked by the closing of the May deadline for rapeseed.
After a week of relaxation, in the end, prices fell back to close below the level of 1000 €/t.
A record, nevertheless!
Now, all eyes are on the new harvest where the needs remain significant in the face of the need to meet the demand for oil and meal in Europe.
However, the price also marked a technical decline on the maturities of the new harvest.
The downturn was also observed in common wheat in both old and new harvests.
The last session of the week and month led to position balances.
The conditions of the crops in place and the progress of sowing of the spring crops will now drive the European market.
Meantime, according to the USDA attaché, EU’s total grain production for MY 2022/23 is anticipated to amount to 286 MMT, down from the 293 MMT registered the previous season.
The favorable growing conditions across the EU are not anticipated to counter the reduction expected in area planted to grains.
Indeed, despite the overall good conditions, spring rains are particularly critical to avoid a tight grain balance.
War in Ukraine has stressed the EU grains market, which has responded with increases in price, demand contraction, and a surge of intra EU trade.
Increased grain exports, indeed, are forecast for MY2021/22, while the EU seeks alternative corn sources to replace Ukraine’s supply.
In this context, a new all-time high was traded past week on Euronext for the May 2022 maturity at €427.75/t, thus exceeding the previous record dated March 7th.
The movements has been as sudden as they are erratic and reflected the position closings, before May expiry for next May 10.
May rapeseed contract will go down in history as the first to have crossed the 1,000 €/t mark, on 23 March and another historic high of €1,094/t on 22 April.
Meantime, per latest data released on Friday from the European Commission forecasts for the 2022/23 European Union wheat harvest are lowered.
While the Commission maintained its projection for record EU exports as war disrupts supply from Ukraine.
In monthly cereal supply and demand estimates, indeed, the Commission cut its outlook for usable production of common wheat, or soft wheat, in the 2022/23 season to 130.1 million tonnes from 131.3 million tonnes previously.
It kept its forecast for EU soft wheat exports in 2022/23 at 40 million tonnes, which would be an all-time high for the bloc.
Also, the Commission increased its projection of EU soft wheat stocks by the end of 2022/23, to 12.6 million tonnes from 12.2 million a month ago, reflecting an upward revision to expected supply this season.
For 2021/22, soft wheat ending stocks were raised to 14.8 million tonnes from 13.2 million previously as forecast exports were cut by 1 million tonnes and expected imports increased by 0.5 million tonnes.
Meantime, an estimated 91% of the French soft wheat crop was in good or excellent condition in the week to April 25, unchanged from 91% the previous week and above a year-earlier score of 81%, farm office FranceAgriMer said on Friday.
Ditto for durum wheat, rated to 83% in good or excellent condition.
Winter barley and spring barley were at 87% and 91% in good or excellent condition respectively, substantially unchanged from prior week.
Some 60% of the expected grain maize area had been planted, compared with 32% progress the previous week and 69% seen a year ago, the office said in its weekly cereal crop report.
From the Black Sea basin, the outlook for Russia’s crop is very positive, with Rusagrotrans forecasting a near 85-million-tonne (Mt) crop, with exports penciled in at 35-40Mt.
Meantime, on Friday the Russian Ag. Min has amended the export tax for wheat, barley and corn for the week of May 06-12, 2022.
Particularly, the export duty will be $120.1 on wheat, $73.5 on barley and $58.3 on corn.
Indicative prices will be $371.6 for wheat, $290.0 for barley and $268.4 for corn.
That is compared, with prior week (April 27 – May 05) when the tax was $119.1 for wheat, $73.3 for barley and $54.9 for corn, while indicative price were $370.2 for wheat, $289.8 for barley and $263.5 for corn.
There are reports that Ukraine’s spring wheat plant is up 31pc, with the combined winter and spring crop just below the five-year average. Last week up to 35 millimetres of rain fell across cropping regions, setting the crop up well as we head into the critical month of May.
The current wheat crop condition is good.
Meantime, port and trade sources have reported a Panamax vessel carrying 71,000t of Ukrainian-origin corn has been dispatched from the Black Sea port of Constanta in Romania.
Ukraine’s grain exports have reached 45.709 million tonnes so far in the 2021/22 July-June season, the agriculture ministry said on Friday as it resumed publishing grain export data.
The ministry said the volume included 763,000 tonnes exported in April but gave no comparative figures.
Senior agriculture officials said that Ukraine exported up 300,000 tonnes of grain in March.
The ministry said the 2021/22 export volumes included 18.5 million tonnes of wheat, 21.1 million tonnes of corn and 5.7 million tonnes of barley.
April’s exports included 115,000 tonnes of wheat, 622,000 tonnes of corn and 25,000 tonnes of barley.
The ministry did not clarify how grain was delivered.
Agriculture and transport officials have said Ukraine aims to boost export capacity at Danube river ports, which would allow grain to be shipped to Romanian Black Sea ports.
From the Middle East, Iraq expects wheat production to reach 2.5-3 million tonnes this season, which will be sufficient for supply to the end of year 2022, the deputy agriculture minister said on Friday.
The ministries of agriculture and water resources will reduce the acreage that will be planted with rice for this season due to water scarcity that Iraq is suffering from, the official added.
From the Middle Kingdom, China will release 500k MT of imported soybeans from state reserves on May 6.
Meantime, China’s sow herd fell 3.3% lower month-over-month to 41.85 million head.
That’s also down 3.1% from a year ago.
The decline is largely attributed to poor hog margins.
From Australia, markets were pretty quiet for wheat and barley in Friday trading.
Offshore trading on Friday is likely to weigh on local prices, perhaps offset a little by the lower Aussie dollar.
The BOM’s three-month outlook released last week points to above-median May-July rainfall for most of Australia’s cropping regions.
The chance of exceeding median rainfall is 70-80pc, except for south-west Western Australia, where the chances are closer to 50pc.
The weakening La Niña, the chance of a negative Indian Ocean Dipole, and other localised drivers are said to be influencing the outlook.
On international trade scene, Turkey’s state grain board TMO is believed to have cancelled all provisional purchases of about 480,000 tonnes wheat in tenders made on Friday with no buying finally made, European traders said on Sunday.
Prices were regarded as too expensive.
Provisional allocations were made on Friday for some 270,000 tonnes of imported wheat and 210,000 tonnes involving supplies already in warehouses in Turkey.
Watching this week’s market, the first week of May begins with the Export Inspections report out this afternoon.
Weekly Crop Progress data will be out overnight, with monthly domestic use data released as well via the Grain Crushing, Fats & Oils, and Cotton Systems report.
The Fed will meet on Tuesday and Wednesday.
On Wednesday, EIA will release ethanol production and stocks data, with Census trade data also published.
Thursday morning, FAS will release weekly Export Sales data.
Friday rounds out the week with May cotton futures expiration.
