Nearly all US grain prices moved moderately lower last Friday.
Traders, indeed, has squarred their positions prior the weekend, looking to USDA’s next World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, which will out tomorrow morning.
Meantime, corn faded 0.75%.
Soybeans were down around 0.4%.
Chicago SRW contracts dropping more than 1% by the close.
Spring wheat prices, in contrast, bucked the overall trend as tight supplies prompted another round of technical buying, that carved out new multiyear highs.
On macro marktes, oil rose on Friday, gaining about 4% on the week as a global energy crunch boosted U.S. prices to their highest in almost seven years as big power users struggle to meet demand.
The price run-up has been partially spurred by soaring European gas prices, which have encouraged a switch to oil for power generation.
Demand, indeed, rose sharply as utilities attempted to raise stockpiles ahead of the winter season in the northern hemisphere, which is forecasted to bring colder than usual temperatures in the coming weeks.
Thus on Friday Brent crude futures rose around 0.72%.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude gained around 1.63%.
For the week, Brent futures were up around 4,3% and WTI crude was up 5,09%.
U.S. gasoline futures also closed at their highest since October 2014 on Friday.
In this context, oil prices surged again on this morning, extending multiweek gains.
In fact, Brent crude was up $1.20 cents, or 1.5%, at $83.59 a barrel by 06:56 GMT.
U.S. oil was up $1.46, or 1.8%, at $80.81 a barrel.
On the financial side, the S&P 500 ended lower on Friday after data showed weaker jobs growth than expected in September, yet investors still expected the Federal Reserve to begin tapering asset purchases this year.
Thus Wall Street’s three main indexes were mixed for much of the session before losing ground toward the end but all three indexes posted weekly gains.
Indeed, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dipped 0.03% to end at 34,746.25 points, the S&P 500 lost 0.19% to 4,391.35, while the Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.51% to 14,579.54.
For the week, however, the S&P 500 rose 0.8%, the Dow added 1.2% and the Nasdaq gained 0.1%.
Meantime, the U.S. Dollar Index increased from last week’s 94.04 to close at 94.50.
Asian shares rallied on Monday courtesy of gains in China.
A 1% rise in the Chinese blue chip index helped stabilise the mood and MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan added 0.7%.
The drop in the yen provided a welcome boost to Japan’s Nikkei, meantime, which reversed early losses to rise 1.7%, though Australia was still off 0.4%.
Coming back on grains market, most of the eastern Corn Belt and almost all of the western Corn Belt are forecast to receive 1-3” rain this week.
Meantime, winter wheat plantings in the US are slowing down and corn harvest will be delayed too.
As we said, the October WASDE report will publish on Tuesday morning (at 6:00 pm Rome time).
Surveyed ideas for this week’s US crop reports have corn yield averaging slightly below the USDA’s last 176.3, and bean yield a bushel higher than their prior 50.6.
Regular report on crop conditions and export inspections will be delayed until Tuesday this week with the Columbus Day holiday on Monday in the US.
Export sales reports will be delayed till Friday.
In this context, Friday there were profit takings all products, in a context that remains tense netherless.
Its should to note, however, that grain prices evolve in part according to the parity of the dollar against its main competitors.
Meantime, corn basis bids were steady to mixed on Friday, moving as much as 15 cents lower at an Indiana ethanol plant while rising as much as 12 cents higher at an Iowa river terminal.
Soybean basis bids firmed 7 to 13 cents at three interior river terminals on Friday and tilted 5 to 10 cents higher at three other Midwestern locations.
From South America, all eyes are once again on Argentina where cold temperatures are slowing down maize planting and threatening the potential for wheat yields.
The Buenos Aires Stock Exchange has also lowered its ratings of wheat “good to excellent” by seven points, to 44%.
Meantime, Brazil’s CONAB crop forecasts late last week pegged beans at a new record 140.75 million tonnes (Mt), corn at 116.3Mt.
Rain in recent days has been beneficial in the south, and weather maps continue to predict a widespread 1-2″ across central bean areas.
On European market, Euronext ended in dispersed order on Friday evening, a stable wheat price, an increase in corn prices, and a decline in rapeseed.
Corn, particularly, stood out by signing a thirteenth consecutive session in the green on its November 2021 deadline.
Harvest delays are confirmed in France with only 7% of work completed on October 4, according to FranceAgriMer, against 47% last year, boosting corn prices.
Additionally, drying costs are rising sharply, as a result of soaring energy costs.
There are some concerns about a possible shortage for next spring on fertilizers.
On the other hand, winter wheat sowing is starting at a good pace with 4% of the areas sown on October 4, compared to 5% last year.
Around 9% of barley areas would be sown.
This week, favorable conditions should allow clear progress.
Meantime, wheat exports from France and the EU remain dynamic despite quality concerns for the French origin.
From the Black Sea basin, according to the Ministry of Agriculture in Ukraine, 15.4 million tonnes of cereals have been exported since the start of the campaign, compared to 13 million tonnes last year.
This breaks down into 9.74 million tonnes of wheat, 3.91 million barley and 1.49 million maize.
Total grain exports are trending 18.5% higher year-over-year.
The grain export objective is posted this year at 61.5 million tonnes against 44.7 last year.
Also, Ukraine’s 2022 winter wheat crop has reached a planting progress of 46%, with farmers planning on around 16.507 million acres this season.
That would be a year-over-year increase of 9.5%, if realized.
Winter barley sowing is estimated at 24.7%.
On the other hand, Russian winter wheat planting continues to attract some interest with the lower figures on acreage being reported, dry conditions raising concerns in some areas, and the domestic price impacts of the export tax decreasing interest.
The export taxes on wheat in Russia are displayed at 58.70 usd / t for the period covering October 13-19.
They are displayed at 49.4 usd / t in barley and 47.2 in corn.
Additionally, there are some rumors of export quotas, quotas which could be implemented in early 2022.
From the Middle Kingdom, heavy rains have disrupted the country’s corn harvest and posed crop quality questions, just as it is anticipating one of the largest crops on record this season.
It’s been raining for the last two weeks.
The harvest will finish in a couple of days, but the quality won’t be as good as last year.
Earlier forecasts put production estimates at just under 10 billion bushels.
From Australia, harvest continues to gradually pick up across the country, though still weeks away for most southern areas.
Weather maps forecast 1-2″ across eastern parts of NSW and southern Victoria, though they’ve pulled back slightly on forecasts up in NW NSW.
Meantime, Australia exported 659,191 tonnes of barley in August, up 16 per cent from 570,200t shipped in July, according to the latest export data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS).
Malting exports in August totalled 70,326t, with Mexico on 33,740t and Peru with 23,000t the biggest markets, followed by Ecuador on 7000t.
Japan is continuing its run of recent months as Australia’s highest-volume destination for feed barley, with 167,113t in August out of the monthly total of 588,865t.
Saudi Arabia on 142,117t followed by Vietnam 84,240t were the second and third-biggest markets respectively for feed.
Sep, Oct and First Half Nov Barley volumes should grind lower, as tighten to historically tight carry out stocks and the market waits for new crop.
Australian exports of sorghum have continued out of Queensland and New South Wales, and China was the destination for 140,414t, or 95pc, of the 147,580t shipped in total in August.
Sorghum shipments for August were down 32pc from the 215,958t shipped in the previous month to reflect the rundown on stocks from the crop harvested largely from March to July.
China continues to be Australia’s highest-value destination and major sorghum importer.
Internationally, Japan purchased 130.633 t of food-quality wheat from the United States, Canada and Australia in a regular tender that closed earlier past week.
Of the total, 46% was sourced from the U.S. The grain is for shipment between November 21 and December 20.
The Philippines purchased 56,000 t of animal feed wheat from Australia in a tender that closed last Thursday.
The grain is for shipment in January.
Turkey bought 310,000 t of feed barley from optional origins.
We wish you a good day and a good start to the week.
