LAST WEEK MARKET COMMENT

US grain prices were mixed but mostly higher last Friday.

Corn prices faded moderately lower.

Soybeans trended around 0.5% higher.

December Chicago SRW futures gained 1.43%.

December Kansas City HRW futures climbed 1.97%.

December MGEX spring wheat futures rose 1.25%.

On macro markets, oil prices fell on Friday after a weaker than expected U.S. jobs report indicated a patchy economic recovery that could mean slower fuel demand.

However, losses were capped by concerns that U.S. supply would remain limited in the wake of Hurricane Ida, which cut production from the U.S. Gulf of Mexico.

Thus, Brent crude futures settled lower by 42 cents, or 0.58%, at $72.61 a barrel.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were down 70 cents or 1%, at $69.29.

Both benchmark oil contracts were largely steady for the week, with U.S. crude up 0.80%.

As we just said, US non-farm payrolls missed expectations, with an increase of only 235,000 jobs.

Economists had forecast non-farm payrolls would increase by 728,000 jobs.

Consequentially, investors now are girding their portfolios for potential stock market volatility, even as equities hover has neared fresh highs after logging seven straight months of gains.

So, on Friday MSCI’s ACWI, which is 60% U.S. equities, rose 0.11% to 746.46, while the Nasdaq gained 0.21%.

The S&P 500 index edged 0.03% lower and the Dow Jones Industrials fell 0.2%.

The broad STOXX Europe 600 index of pan-regional stocks closed down 0.56%.

US markets are closed today due to the Labor Day long weekend and will reopen on the Monday night session, or Tuesday morning Italy time.

Coming back on grains market, traders remained focused on weather forecasts for the central U.S. last Friday.

Meantime, they squared positions ahead of the long weekend of Labour Day, beginning to look forward to the next World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report from USDA, out next Friday, September 10.

IHS Markit Agribusiness lowered its US corn yields estimate from 176.5 b/a to now 175.4 b/a.

IHS Markit Agribusiness lowered its US soybeans yields estimate from 51.5 b/a to now 50 b/a.

Thus, corn prices took a moderate spill lower.

Soybeans, were supported by a 130kT sale to China.

Wheat prices, ratcheted higher, meantime, amid lingering concerns over US and global supplies, as well as widespread production concerns among some key producers.

On the other hand, the timeline for resumption of exports out of the US Gulf is a moving target but repairers seem to be making headway on getting power back up.

Tomorrow we will see Weekly Grains Inspected for Export during the week ended Sepetember 02, 2021.

On European market, there were very little changes on Friday.

Corn closed lost 0.2% and rapeseed 0.4%.

Wheat rose 0.1%, meantime.

FranceAgriMer kept its French corn and wheat crop ratings unchanged at 91% and 74% in good to excellent condition, respectively.

Meantime, they have seen that only 39% of wheat has a specific weight greater than 76 kg / hl, thus confirming a harvest mainly of forage quality.

This will in fact limit French exports to third countries, leaving room for other origins.

Also in durum wheat, only 49% would have a PS greater than 76 kg / hl and only 20% meet the standards on the Hagberg criteria.

Given the poor Canadian harvest, this market remain very tight.

From the Black Sea basin, traders attention was caught by rumor of the cancellation of several feed barley boats originating in Ukraine and bound for China.

It seems that the reason given is a drop in demand linked to an expected excellent maize harvest in China, which would have mainly motivated this decision.

Meantime, spring wheat yields in Russia have been below expectations, forcing many to drop their all wheat estimates to closer to 70 million tonnes (Mt).

Ukraine is filling the void for the moment, providing liquidity to the export bids.

Indeed, according to the Ministry of Agriculture, Ukraine, the first volumes of the 2021 harvest reported on Friday are potential promising

The production of common wheat and barley showed a clear increase compared to the previous season.

Meantime, the volume exported in wheat very slightly lower than last year for the moment at 4.99 Mt.

The increase in activity is however already observed for barley where 2.84 Mt were exported. since the start of the campaign.

This becomes more important because the new Russia tax system, which is up another US$7/t, providing uncertainty in deferred offers.

From Australia, the rain event across the weekend was fantastic for large portion of growers along the east coast and came in good time with most areas in SNSW receiving falls of greater than 20mm.

While Victoria was much the same with some great totals across the Wimmera and Mallee upwards to 20mm in areas where it was much needed for them to stay in the game.

Parts of SA missed out, receiving only scattered showers, however the SA Mallee and Murray lands were the ones that needed the rain and got their 10-15mm.

Meantime, new crop wheat markets finished the week down A$7-8/t.

While markets were relatively flat at the start of the week they went to ground as the week ended.

Grower liquidity was mixed with some east coast selling hitting the boards ahead of the rainfall event.

Barley track markets were $1-2/t softer last week while the Victorian delivered bids held up to be relatively unchanged.

Canola drifted lower.

WA FIS bids were off $18-20/t over the course of the week while on Friday they found some ground and were back up $5-6/t.

Old crop markets continue to grind away.

Values on wheat and barley are relatively unchanged as it is the same old story of buyers stepping in for coverage for the LH September-October periods.

On the international scene, 50,000 t of milling wheat was bought by Taiwan.

We wish you a good afternoon.