US grain markets traded off down through Friday’s session, though wheat did recover slightly later in the day for smaller losses.
On macro markets, oil prices edged higher on Friday, with global benchmark Brent posting a fourth monthly gain, with demand growing faster than supply and vaccinations expected to alleviate the impact of a resurgence in COVID-19 infections across the world.
In fact, Brent crude futures for September, which expired on Friday, rose 28 cents, or 0.4%, to settle at $76.33 a barrel. The more active contract for October ended the session up 31 cents at $75.41 per barrel.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures rose 33 cents, or 0.5%, to end the session at $73.95 a barrel.
Both benchmarks notched gains of more than 2% for the week, while Brent rose 1.6% in July, its fourth straight monthly increase.
WTI was unchanged for the month.
U.S. stocks dropped on Friday to pull further from record highs as an underwhelming earnings report from Amazon.com Inc dampened the market mood, while the dollar rose a shade but hovered near a one-month low.
In Friday afternoon trade, Amazon shares slid 7%, dragging the tech-focused Nasdaq Composite down 0.7%.
That fed profit-taking elsewhere, with the S&P 500 losing 0.5%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average also shedding 0.5%.
Both the S&P 500 and the Dow had struck record highs on Thursday.
Coming back on grains market, USDA WASDE and crop production reports will publish 12 August.
The key number in the report will be yield update, which will impact the final carry-out estimates.
The overall balance sheet makeup remains essentially the same in our analysis.
There is still no room for below-average yields in the US, as this would lead to significantly tight carry-out.
However, the lack of realized demand is a bit concerning to the bullish view on soybeans.
Corn areas are reporting more stress from the heat and a few more yield ideas are coming back down.
Weather maps for the US Corn Belt are very dry for this week and early next, although two-week maps are bringing back a more generalized set of rain storms.
Cooler temperatures remain forecast for the eastern Corn Belt.
The USDA Risk Management Agency actuarial figures were updated late last week and finally released.
Indemnities as of 26 July were up to US$33.9million in North Dakota (+50pc from prior) and $22.3 million in Montana (+100% from prior) as drought impacts continued to be appraised.
With an estimated 1% of the Montana spring wheat crop appraised and written off in the six days since then, and 0.5pc in North Dakota, losses are expected to continue to jump.
Spring wheat harvest yields continue to disappoint, although test weight is generally reported to be slightly better than some of the earlier cuts.
Protein remains high.
From South America, the drop in temperatures which has affected some of the Argentinian wheat lately would have caused damage according to the Stock Exchange of Buenos Aires.
However, national cultures still have great potential.
On European market, the European Commission raised its forecast of usable production of common wheat in European Union’s 27 member countries.
For 2021/22 season the available common wheat is 127.7 million tonnes compared to 125.8 million estimated last month.
In 2020/21 season was of 117.2 million tonnes.
The Commission kept unchanged its outlook for EU common wheat exports in 2021/22 at 30.0 million tonnes estimated in June.
In the 2020/21 season that ended on last June 30, exports were of 27.0 million tonnes.
Meantime, the Commission lowered its forecast for corn imports into the EU during the 2021/22 marketing year on increased production forecasts.
FranceAgriMer, reported about 47% of the French soft wheat crop area had been cut by Monday of past week.
Meantime, about 85% of the French durum wheat crop area was harvested.
The condition of French soft wheat in the week to July 26 stood at 75% of crops rated good or excellent, unchanged from a week earlier.
While durum wheat condition stood 66% of crops rated good or excellent, just one point bad from the week earlier.
The winter barley harvest was nearly over with 98% harvested by July 26.
About 39% of French spring barley had been harvested in the same time.
For corn, which is harvested in the autumn, FranceAgriMer estimates 90% of the crop in good/excellent condition by July 26, unchanged from the previous week.
From the Black Sea basin, high temperatures in the region and dry forecasts have continued to encourage rapid winter cereals harvest.
Russian government data pegged wheat harvest area completed-to-date at 12.4 million ha as of Friday.
From the Middle Kingdom, some Chinese fertilizer companies are suspending exports of phosphate and urea as the government tries to control prices for fertilizers in the domestic market.
From Australia, Aussie local grains markets traded by six dollar firmer, with liquidity continuing to dribble out and a little more new crop selling reported in WA.
WA rains continued to add moisture across the wheat belt yesterday, with another 5-15 mm reported across most of the area.
Internationally, Algeria’s OAIC to start the week is tendering for wheat to fill September slots.
Egypt’s GASC is also reportedly tendering again tonight, shipment late Sep/early Oct.
