Good morning, Farmer Family …
US farm markets ended the week on a high note, on Friday.
Wheat prices saw the most upside, as Chicago SRW was 4% higher; KC HRW closed 3.45% higher; and Minneapolis spring wheat was 1.93% higher at the bell.
Corn also made solid inroads, trending around 1.8% higher.
Soybeans closed around 0.62% higher, with soymeal firmer by 1.55%, while soyoil climbed more than 2.1% higher.
Wheat prices rallied amid market talk of Russia possibly halting wheat exports.
Russian Vedomosti daily, indeed, reported that Moscow could recommend a temporary halt in wheat and sunflower exports.
However, later some sources said that Russia has no plans to halt wheat exports, but wants exporters to ensure prices paid to farmers are high enough to cover average production costs.
Corn prices attracted some bargain buying and continued to climb closing higher, on hearty Chinese demand.
Private exporters, indeed, reported to the USDA another big flash export sale for the China, having sold on Friday 204,000 metric tons of corn for delivering during the 2022/2023 marketing year.
That bringing the total to more than 2.75 million tonnes since March 14.
Corn price were further supported by spillover strength from surging wheat prices.
Soybean prices rebounded and followed other grains higher, after the most-active contract fell to $14.05 during the week, the lowest price since Nov. 4.
The ensuing spillover strength from other grains sparked some technical and bargain buying.
For the week, corn prices extended their gains, with the May deadline up 1.38% from the prior Friday.
Soybeans sank 3.27% for the week, with the products offered no support, as soymeal dropped another 4.48% lower, and bean oil falling 7.29% on the week.
The wheat complex was mixed as Chicago SRW was still down 3.1%, MPLS spring wheat closed down 0.38%, while Kansas City rallied another 1.47% higher.
On Monday, the USDA rated 19% of the Kansas winter wheat in good to excellent condition, up from 17% the previous week.
For Texas, the USDA rated 23% of the crop as good to excellent, up from 17% the previous week, while 44% was rated as poor to very poor, compared with 50% previously.
For Oklahoma, the USDA rated 29% of the winter wheat crop in good to excellent condition, down from 30% a week ago.
For Colorado, the USDA rated 36% of the winter wheat as good to excellent, down from 40% the previous week.
In Arkansas, where farmers grow soft red winter wheat used to make cookies and snack foods, the USDA rated 60% of the state’s wheat as good to excellent, down from 61% a week ago.
The USDA rated 65% of the Louisiana winter wheat crop and 68% of Mississippi’s wheat as good to excellent, up from 64% and 57%, respectively, the prior week.
Meantime, USDA also reported the Texas corn crop was 40% planted, ahead of the state’s five-year average for the same time of year of 35%.
Corn planting was 87% complete in Louisiana, 7% complete in Mississippi and 1% complete in Arkansas.
On Wedsneday, the weekly EIA report indicated ethanol production backing off 17,000 barrels per day to 997,000 bpd during the week of 3/17.
Ethanol stocks were back down 206,000 barrels to 26.188 million barrels, with the Gulf and East Coast seeing the largest cuts.
Thursday Export Sales report showed old crop corn bookings backing at a MY high of 3.1 MMT during the week that ended on March 16 with 2.11 MMT of that already known via daily sales.
Total sales were the largest for any week since May 2021.
That pushed old crop corn export commitments to 34.941 MMT.
However, that was still down 34% (+5% vs. prior week) vs. last year.
That was also 74% of the current USDA forecast, catching up to the 85% average pace for this date.
As for soybean, the report tallied old crop soybean bookings dropping to the second lowest the MY at 152,479 MT during the week of March 16.
That was down from 655k MT prior week, and was only 12% of the same week last year’s sale.
Commitments were at 49.478 MMT, or 8% below last year at this time.
That was also 90% of USDA’s forecast total, or 1% below the average pace.
The week’s export shipment was 704k MT for a MY total of 43.534 MMT.
USDA has the full year’s total marked at 54.8 MMT.
As for wheat, the report indicated bookings dropping to a 10-week low of 125,568 MT.
That limped total wheat export commitments to 17.956 MMT as of March 16.
That was still 6% below year ago and 85% of the USDA export projection, vs. the 99% average pace.
On Friday, a U.S. planting intentions survey conducted by Farm Futures magazine, indicated that growers expect to plant 87.677 million acres of corn in 2023, down 1% from the 88.579 million acres seeded a year ago.
Soybean plantings for 2023 forecast at 89.620 million acres, up 2.5% from USDA’s 2022 estimate of 87.450 million
All-wheat seedings for 2023 seen at 45.744 million acres, nearly unchanged from the 45.738 million acres seeded in 2022.
Notably, winter wheat seedings seen at 34.417 million acres, up 3.4% from 2022 but below the USDA’s 2023 forecast, released Jan. 12, of 36.950 million acres.
Spring wheat plantings (excluding durum) seen at 10.152 million acres, down 6.3% from 2022.
Durum wheat plantings seen at 1.175 million acres, down 28% from 2022.
In this context, corn basis bids were steady to mixed, after moving as much as 10 cents higher at an Iowa processor and as much as 5 cents lower at a Nebraska processor.
Soybean basis bids were largely steady across the Midwest, but did trend 4 cents higher at an Ohio elevator.
As for wheat, although export demand has remained light for all U.S. wheat classes, HRS and HRW basis ended the week mixed, while the soft wheat classes decreased.
HRS was up in the Gulf and flat in the PNW, supported by lagging rail performance.
Likewise, HRW basis was up in the Gulf and flat in the PNW, also supported by low farmer engagement.
The inverted market and the high cost of carry continue to influence HRW basis.
Gulf SRW basis and PNW soft white wheat prices decreased, in line with competing origins, in search of demand.
After the sessions close, the weekly CFTC reports, now current, had corn spec funds 41,896 contracts net short as of 3/21.
That was a 12,238 contract weaker net short for the week, mainly driven by net new buying.
Commercial corn hedgers put 8k new short hedges on for the week.
That left the group at 175,450 contracts net short.
This is the first recorded net short in corn futures and options since August 2020.
As for soybean, data showed managed money traders were 110,786 contracts net long in soybeans as of 3/21.
That was a 17k contract weaker net long for the week, mainly driven by long liquidation.
The commercial bean hedgers put on 12k new hedges, mostly longs, which left the group at 190,682 contracts net short.
CFTC reported the funds were selling back existing soymeal longs and adding new soy oil shorts through the week.
That left the group at a 115,214 contract net long for meal but a 5,718 contract net short for soy oil.
As for wheat, the report showed managed money funds liquidated 8.5k SRW shorts during the week that ended 3/21.
That left the group at a still large 86,500 contract net short.
Spec traders were 8,762 contracts net short in KC wheat.
That was a 3,970 contract lighter net short also via short covering.
Managed money lightened their net short in spring wheat by 1,823 contracts through the week to 2,624.
On this morning, Chicago corn prices ticked down, retreating from a more than three-week high hit in the previous session, although strong Chinese demand lent some support to the market.
Soybean and wheat prices also surrendered gains from the previous session, pressured by weaker crude and vegetable oils.
Notably, the most-active soybean contract on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) was down 0.18% at $14.25-3/4 a bushel, as of 05:00 GMT.
Corn slipped 0.7% to $6.38-1/2 a bushel and wheat fell 0.58% to $6.84-1/2 a bushel.
The market has now been discounting poor Argentine soy crop and focusing on Brazil’s record harvest.
After the last two weeks’ correction, likely there is limited scope for further downside in grains.
On this wake, funds have started adding new long positions, subject to further information in the late March USDA reports.
In energy markets, oil prices settled lower on Friday.
Brent crude settled down 92 cents, or 1.2%, to $74.99.
West Texas Intermediate U.S. crude futures fell 70 cents, or 1%, to $69.26 a barrel.
European banking shares fell, with Deutsche Bank and UBS Group slammed by worries that the worst problems in the sector since the 2008 financial crisis could persist.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen convened an unscheduled meeting of the Financial Stability Oversight Council on Friday morning.
The dollar rose 0.6% against other currencies, which also pressured oil, making crude more expensive to holders of other currencies.
Also, the White House had said in October it would buy back oil for the SPR when prices were at or below about $67-$72 per barrel.
However, U.S. Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm said refilling the country’s Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) may take several years, dampening demand prospects.
Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said a previously announced cut of 500,000 barrels per day (bpd) in Russia’s oil production would be from an output level of 10.2 million bpd in February, the RIA Novosti news agency reported.
That means Russia aims to produce 9.7 million bpd between March and June, according to Novak, a much smaller output cut than Moscow previously indicated.
However, both benchmarks rose this week as banking sector turmoil eased early in the week.
Also, oil drew some support from strong demand expectations from China, with Goldman Sachs expects oil demand topping 16 million bpd.
Thus, Brent futures rose 2.8% in the week while U.S. crude futures rose 3.8%.
On this morning, oil prices stabilised in Asian trade.
Brent crude futures held unchanged at $74.99 a barrel at 03:57 GMT after hitting a session high of $75.64.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was at $69.29 a barrel, up 3 cents, after rising to $69.92 earlier in the session.
Oil markets are closely watching the sentiment in financial market.
Thus, we must expect that most price movement will occur during the Europe and U.S. trading hours, marked by plenty of intraday volatility.
Prices drew some support early in the session from President Vladimir Putin comments that he will station tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus, escalating geopolitical tensions in Europe over Ukraine.
NATO criticised Putin on Sunday for what it called his “dangerous and irresponsible” nuclear rhetoric.
Meanwhile, in France, industrial action is disrupting refineries, reducing crude demand and fuel production.
Investors are also watching out for China’s manufacturing and services purchasing managers’ indexes to be releases later this week.
Meantime, in the U.S., oil rigs rose four to 593 last week, up for the first time in six weeks, while gas rigs held steady at 162, energy services firm Baker Hughes Co said in a report on Friday.
In ocean freight markets, the Baltic Exchange’s main sea freight index edged higher on Friday on stronger demand in the larger capesize vessel segment, although it marked its first weekly decline in five.
The overall index, indeed, gained 5 points to 1,489.
The index, however, was down about 3% for the week, its most since the week ended Feb. 17.
Notably, the capesize index rose 26 points, or about 1.4%, to 1,882. Although, the index lost 1.6% for the week.
Average daily earnings for capesizes, which typically transport 150,000-tonne cargoes such as iron ore and coal, increased $215 to $15,611.
The panamax index fell 12 points to 1,572. The index was down 8.8% for the week – its biggest weekly percentage fall since Feb. 3.
Average daily earnings for panamaxes, which usually carry coal or grain cargoes of about 60,000 to 70,000 tonnes, decreased $111 to $14,149.
Among smaller vessels, the supramax index edged up 1 point to 1,332.
It was up for the sixth consecutive week.
In equity markets, US stock indexes Friday recovered from early losses and closed moderately higher, after an unscheduled meeting of the Financial Stability Oversight Council (FSOC), convened by Treasury Secretary Yellen, sparked short covering in bank stock.
The FSOC issued a statement late Friday afternoon that said “the U.S. banking system remains sound and resilient despite the fact that some institutions are under stress.”
Members of the FSOC include the heads of the Federal Reserve, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp, and several other regulatory agencies.
Bank stocks Friday initially opened lower and weighed on the broader market.
European bank stocks were also under pressure on Friday, with much of the focus was on Deutsche Bank, whose stock tumbled 8.5%.
That sell-off was prompted by the rising cost of insuring Deutsche Bank’s debt, expressed by its credit default swaps, when the bank announced plans on Friday to redeem $1.5 billion of tier 2 debt not due to be repaid until 2028.
For the month so far, Deutsche Bank has shed 27.6%.
Other big European banks also fell Friday, including a 5.5% drop for Germany’s Commerzbank, a 5.3% fall for France’s BNP Paribas.
Also, after Bloomberg News reported that Credit Suisse Group AG and UBS Group AG were among banks under scrutiny in a U.S. Justice Department probe into whether financial professionals helped Russian oligarchs evade sanctions, UBS Group AG closed down more than -3%.
Cash-short banks were still lining up this week to borrow money from the Fed.
The Fed said Thursday that emergency lending to banks fell slightly in the past week – to $164 billion – but remained high.
In a sign of strong foreign demand for dollars, Fed data late Thursday showed the Federal Reserve facility that gives foreign central banks access to dollar funding was tapped for a record $60 billion in the week through March 22.
Bank of America said EPFR Global data shows investors are fleeing into cash to escape the turmoil in financial markets as global cash funds had inflows of nearly $143 billion in the week through Wednesday, the largest increase since March 2020.
Over the past four weeks, investors have poured more than $300 billion into cash funds.
Wider indicators of financial market stress were also flashing, with the euro falling against the dollar, global bond yields sinking.
The US 10-year T-note yield Friday fell to a 6-1/4 month low of 3.280% but moved up from that low as stocks recovered and finished the day down -6.0 bp at 3.367%.
It was above 4% earlier this month.
The drop has been even more dramatic for the two-year Treasury yield, which more closely tracks expectations for the Fed.
Stronger demand for safe-haven assets, and bets that the Federal Reserve will soon pause its policy tightening cycle due to the banking turmoil, pushed the two-year U.S. Treasury yield to 3.77% from 3.83% late Thursday and from more than 5% earlier this month.
Euro zone government bond yields followed Treasury yields lower.
The 10-year German bund yield dropped -6.7 bp to 2.129%, and two-year German yields dropping a hefty 25 bps to 2.25%.
The 10-year UK gilt yield fell to a 6-week low of 3.132%.
The index of top European bank shares ended down 3.8%.
Investors fretted that regulators and central banks have yet to contain the worst shock to the sector since the 2008 global financial crisis.
A big worry is that all the pressure on banks will cause a pullback in lending to small and midsized businesses across the country.
That in turn could lead to less hiring, a weaker economy and a higher potential for a recession that many economists already saw as likely.
Friday’s U.S. economic news was better-than-expected and supportive for stocks after Feb capital goods new orders nondefense ex-aircraft unexpectedly rose +0.2% m/m, stronger than expectations of a decline of -0.2% m/m.
Also, the Mar S&P manufacturing PMI unexpectedly rose +2.0 to a 5-month high of 49.3, stronger than expectations of a decline to 47.0.
In this context, the S&P 500 rose 0.6%, or 22.27 points, to 3,970.99.
The Dow added 0.4%, or 132.28 points, to 32,237.53.
The Nasdaq gained 0.3%, or 36.56 points, to close at 11,823.96.
Small company stocks outgained the broader market.
The Russell 2000 index rose 14.63 points, or 0.9%, to 1,734.92.
For the week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.18%, the S&P 500 rose 1.39%, and the Nasdaq Composite lifted 1.66%.
On this morning, Asian shares were mixed.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng skidded 1.3% to 19,667.66 and the Shanghai Composite index lost 0.4% to 3,251.40.
Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 added 0.3% to 27,476.87 and the Kospi in Seoul shed 0.2% to 2,409.22.
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 edged 0.1% higher, to 6,962.00 and the Sensex in Mumbai gained 0.6%. Shares edged higher in Bangkok.
The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. said it agreed to the sale of troubled Silicon Valley Bank to North Carolina-based First-Citizens Bank & Trust Co.
The FDIC took over Silicon Valley Bank after it collapsed on March 10, promising to protect all depositors.
The acquisition could raise confidence in the troubled banking industry.
But concerns persist that higher interest rates that are squeezing lenders could increase the likelihood of a recession.
This is keeping financial stocks pressured.
The managing director of the International Monetary Fund, Kristalina Georgieva, told a conference in Beijing on Sunday that risks to financial stability have risen as interest rates are raised to fight inflation.
She said actions by central banks and other regulators have helped to ease strains on markets, “but uncertainty is high, which underscores the need for vigilance.”
Chinese markets declined Monday after the government reported that industrial profits fell nearly 23% in the first two months of the year from a year earlier.
In currency trading, the dollar index rose 0.536% at 103.140, but 0.578% weaker for the week.
The dollar reversed a losing streak to gain 0.49% against major peers on Friday as risk aversion strengthened appetite for the reserve currency.
The Japanese yen, a safe haven currency, was steady at 130.57 after hitting a six-week high of 129.8 per dollar.
Meantime, the euro fell about 0.6% to $1.0774.
On this morning, the U.S. dollar rose to 131.18 Japanese yen.
The euro weakened to $1.0761.
Going back to analyzing the other agricultural markets …
From Canada, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) issued its March supply and demand estimates yesterday keeping nearly all of its numbers unchanged from February.
Notably, wheat production was pegged at 34.3Mt (33.8Mt previous year).
Projected Canadian wheat exports for the 2022-23 marketing year were raised to 24.3 million tonnes, up by 200,000 from the February estimate.
Domestic usage was lowered by 100,000, at 8.911 million tonnes, leaving the projected ending stocks down by only 100,000 as well, at 4.4 million tonnes.
Canadian wheat exports for 2023-24 were left unchanged at 24 million tonnes, but domestic usage was lowered by 100,000 tonnes, to 9.152 million.
As a result, new-crop Canadian wheat ending stocks were unchanged at 5.7 million tonnes, (4.4Mt previous year).
As for durum, the area seeded to durum in Canada is projected at 2.30 million hectares (Mha) and with continued recovery in yields, production is forecast to remain relatively stable at 5.5 Mt, 5% more than average levels.
Total supply is currently pegged at just under 6.0 Mt, constrained by tight carry-in stocks.
Exports are forecast at 4.4 Mt, on the assumption of an average export campaign.
Domestic use is expected to remain relatively stable year-on-year at 0.7 Mt, and carry-out stocks to rise to 0.8 Mt.
The average spot price for SK CWAD 1, 13% for 2023-24 remains pegged at $415/tonne, but under pressure if larger crops in Europe and North Africa are realized.
The balance sheet for canola was left unchanged on the month.
Canola production for 2023-24 is still pegged at 18.5Mt (18.1Mt previous year), with projected exports of 8.6 million tonnes during the current marketing year and 8.8 million in 2023-24.
Canola ending stocks were pegged at 800,000 tonnes for 2022-23 and 850,000 for the next year.
However, the government agency did raise its average price forecast for canola during the current marketing year to $890 per tonne, from $880 per tonne in February.
The new-crop canola price projection was left unchanged at $850 per tonne.
Pulse and special crop projections were all unchanged on the month.
Statistics Canada’s acreage estimates will be released at the end of April.
Meantime, the Grain Statistics weekly report, showed producers’ deliveries of common wheat at 488,8k mt for week 32 of this shipping season.
That was weaker from 459,2k mt posted prior week.
Deliveries of durum wheat, were also weaker at 120,8k mt, compared with 130,6k mt showed in prior week.
Canada exported 465,6k mt of common wheat in week 33.
That was down from 520,5k mt of a week earlier.
Durum wheat exports, in contrast, were stronger moving up from 76,1k mt to 196,3k mt.
That was the largest volume shipped in 17 weeks and the second-largest weekly volume shipped this crop year.
Total Commercial Stocks of common wheat stood at 2.835.7k mt.
That was slightly down from 2.913.9k mt posted in week 32.
Total durum commercial stocks, also were weaker moving down from 700,1k mt a week earlier, to 562,4k mt.
Cumulative exports for common wheat were at 12.802,5k mt.
That is compared 7.474,9k mt a year ago.
Thus, this volume is up 71.3% from the same period in 2021-22 and is 26.1% higher than the five-year average.
During the past five years, an average of 57.2% of total crop year exports was shipped through licensed facilities during the first 33 weeks, while this historical pace projects forward to 23.380 mmt of wheat exports, well-above the current 19.5 mmt AAFC forecast.
Of course, supplies may be a limiting factor.
Meanwhile AAFC has repeatedly revised higher their wheat forecast since their first forecast in January 2022, and the historical pace of movement would suggest that they will continue to do so.
Durum cumulative exports reached 3.542,7k mt vs 1.557,1 a year ago.
Thus, that is up 127.5% from the same period in 2021-22 and 32.6% higher than the five-year average for this period.
During the past five-years, an average of 58.5% of crop year exports were achieved as of the CGC’s week 33 data, a pace that projects forward to crop year exports of 6 mmt, a volume that is not possible given Statistics Canada’s current estimate of supplies.
Thus, licensed exports as of week 33 are likely ahead of the steady pace needed to reach this forecast.
In this context, cash bids for Canadian durum wheat fell week over week.
Indeed, looking at the average regional price of C$454.55/mt as of March 24, that was C$1.6/mt weaker from the prior week.
From South America, Brazil’s CONAB reports that as at 18 Mar, 2022-23 first (full-season) maize harvesting is 35pc complete (26pc previous week, 42pc previous year).
Second (safrinha) maize crop plantings are 85pc complete (73pc previous week, 95pc previous year).
Fieldwork in Mato Grosso was close to completion amid favourable weather, with dry conditions in Parana also allowing for progress.
Soybean harvest was 63pc complete (53pc previous week, 71pc previous year), with reports of good quality in Mato Grosso.
Meantime, Agroconsult reported that based on nationwide survey data, despite the impact of drought-like conditions in Rio Grande do Sul, 2022-23 soybean production is seen 2.0Mt higher than before, at 155.0Mt (125.5Mt previous year).
Average yields for Brazil soybean fields stood at 59.1 60-kilo bags per hectare, shy of an all-time record of 59.4 bags in the 2020/2021 cycle.
Total exports is seen at 96.0Mt (78.7Mt previous year), with processing placed at 53.9Mt (49.4Mt).
Abiove now estimates Brazil’s soy production at a record 153.6 million tonnes, 1 million more than the projection in January.
As for corn, Agroconsult lowered its second corn crop to 97.2 million tonnes, from 101.3 million tonnes in January, citing weather risks and a likely fall in areas planted in states like Paraná.
Brazil will also export above 50 million tonnes of corn this season, Agroconsult said.
Meantime, according to the Anec the country’s corn exports will reach 899,160t in March, which was modestly above the group’s prior projection from a week ago.
Anec also anticipates seeing an additional 726,653t of wheat exports this month.
Anec expects the country’s soybean exports will reach 15.39 MMT in March, which is slightly above the group’s prior projection from a week ago.
Anec also anticipates that Brazilian soymeal exports will reach 1.787 million metric tons this month.
Chinese demand remains strong and Argentine growers grapple with weather issues.
In Argentine, Buenos Aires Grains Exchange maintained its 2022-23 production forecasts for both soy and corn yesterday after weeks of successive cuts, with its soybean production estimate at 25Mt and corn 36Mt.
However, the exchange said that yields observed on early harvested soy were below “historical lows and below the initially expected returns.
If this trend continues, it could affect our production estimate of 25 million tonnes.”
On corn, it added the forecast could also be cut further if yields were found to be below expectations.
Meantime, Refinitiv Commodities Research has cut their 2022-23 maize production forecast for Argentina by a further 5pc, to 39.5Mt.
2022-23 soybean output expectations slashed by 9pc, to 31.8Mt, reflecting low and receding vegetation densities due to sustained hot, dry weather
On the other hand, according to the Rosario Grains Exchange, Argentina’s soybean imports are expected to more than double this season due to the devastating impacts drought.
The exchange predicts that Argentina will import 7.9Mt of soybeans this season, up 139pc.
“Brazil has been emerging in this first part of the year as a growing supplier of soybeans for the Argentine oil industry, in addition to the high supply from Paraguay,” it said.
In Europe, grain and oilseeds rebounded sharply on Friday, offsetting a part of the downward movement experienced in recent sessions.
MATIF wheat, corn and rapeseed all spiked about 5pc higher.
Prices rallied, as a Russian newspaper reported that Russia was considering a temporary halt on wheat and sunflower exports, reviving uncertainty about Black Sea supply.
According to Lloyd’s of London, ships carrying cargoes from Ukraine’s three Black Sea ports continued to be insured, but the shorter renewal term raises concerns over forward shipments beyond the 60-day period.
Also, a fall in euro gave some support to the markets.
However, grain prices had fell during the week, as supply pressure from large Black Sea exports and improving crop conditions in Europe continued to weigh on prices.
With the euro’s rebound against the dollar, which began at the start of the week, european grain prices had adjusted downwards in a context of the search for competitiveness in exports vis-à-vis the Black Sea sources.
Thursday’s price movements were less sharp than earlier the week when nervousness in financial markets and a wave of farmer’s sales fuelled the sell off.
Some traders considered the market fall had been overdone given persisting dryness in some U.S. and European crops belts, an expected drop in Ukraine’s 2023 harvest and signs of late weather damage to India’s crop.
But, with the continuation of the grain export corridor from Ukraine, large Russian shipments and beneficial rain for U.S. and European crops, supply concerns were really eased.
On this wake, on Friday FranceAgriMer reported that the country’s 2022/23 soft wheat crop quality slightly decrease this past week, moving from 95% to 94% rated in good-to-excellent condition through March 20.
Conditions for durum wheat, remained stable with 92% of the crop rated good or excellent.
The country’s winter barley crop was also in fantastic shape, with 93% rated in good-to-excellent condition over the same period, up 1% from a week earlier, while 99% of spring barley was rated in good-to-excellent condition.
Grain trade association Coceral on Friday increased its forecast of this year’s soft wheat production in the European Union and Britain to 144.5 million tonnes from 143.3 million estimated in December.
It also raised its estimate for the 2023 EU + UK rapeseed production, now seen at to 21.1 million tonnes, up from 20.4 million in December, while it cut its corn production forecast to 62.3 million tonnes, from 64.5 million.
Morocco has emerged as the biggest export outlet for European Union wheat in 2022/23 as sales to other destinations have been curbed by revived Black Sea competition.
Thus, French farmer selling, worried about further price losses and facing storage deadlines contributed to the weekly slide.
The downward movement in wheat prices also weighed on other grains, including corn of course.
In oilseeds, a sharp decline in palm oil and soybean prices, weighed on rapeseed prices for all the week.
From the Middle East, Iraq expects to import anywhere from 600,000 to one million tonnes of wheat if this year’s harvest season reaches its four million tonne objective, Iraqi state news agency quoted a trade ministry official as saying on Saturday.
On March 14, Iraqi agriculture minister Abbas Jabr said his country expects its wheat production to reach 4 million tonnes for the 2022-2023 harvest.
From Ukraine, most Ukrainian regions have started 2023 spring sowing, seeding a total of 293,000 hectares of various crops, the agriculture ministry said on Friday.
Notably, farmers in 18 regions had sown 76,100 hectares of spring wheat, 168,100 hectares of barley, 35,300 hectares of peas and 14,200 hectares of oats as of March 24.
Odesa region has already started 2023 sunflower sowing.
However, the ministry this week said that the grain sowing area could decrease by 1.4 million hectares to 10.2 million in 2023 while the area sown to oilseeds could rise.
The ministry also said the 2023 grain harvest could drop to 44.3 million tonnes from 53.1 million tonnes while oilseed output could rise to 19.2 million tonnes from 18.2 million tonnes.
Meantime, Ukraine’s grain exports so far in the 2022/23 season totalled 36.6 million tonnes as of March 24.
The volume so far in the July-to-June season included about 12.6 million tonnes of wheat, 21.5 million tonnes of corn and 2.26 million tonnes of barley.
The ministry said grain exports in March had reached 4.29 million tonnes as of March 24.
From Russia, the government reported it may increase 2023 grain purchases to 10 million metric tons via its state intervention fund.
This fund is designed to lower domestic prices when they rise too quickly.
Russia purchased 3 million metric tons of grain last year.
However, Russia could use this instrument to stop the falling in prices.
According to the Vedomosti business daily, indeed, Russia could recommend a temporary halt in wheat and sunflower exports after a sharp drop in global prices in recent weeks, citing two unidentified sources who attended a government meeting.
The paper said Russia’s agriculture ministry would meet industry representatives to discuss the idea of a temporary curb on exports.
Prices of sunflower oil have dropped by more than 20% over the last 10 days, the paper cited the government as saying during an internal meeting on Thursday.
However, later two sources said Russia has no plans to halt wheat exports but wants exporters to ensure prices paid to farmers are high enough to cover average production costs.
This would mean keeping export prices for wheat at or above $275 to $280 per tonne, they added.
Notably, seems Russia recommended its exporters set a wheat export price of not lower than $275 per tonne “until further notice”.
Those who do not obey might face problems with obtaining phyto certificates needed for export supply.
Prices for Russian wheat with 12.5% protein content, delivered free on board (FOB) from Black Sea ports, fell $13 to $277 a tonne last week, according to the IKAR agriculture consultancy.
Meantime, Russia’s agriculture ministry has set out its weekly grain export taxes for March 29 -Apr 4.
Notably, as of Mar 29, the export duty on wheat will increase to 5,409.6 from 5,327.9 rubles per ton a week earlier.
Ditto for corn, it will move higher from 2,646.9 rubles of a week earlier, to 2,885.0 rubles per ton.
For barley, in contrast, the duty will be weaker for this period, decreasing to 3,245.3 rubles from 3,298.2 rubles per ton a week earlier.
This new duty rates will be in effect through Apr 4, inclusive.
The duties were calculated based on indicative prices: $295.9 per ton for wheat ($298.9 a week earlier), $241.0 for barley ($245.7), $234.3 for corn ($233.4).
Russia’s agriculture minister on Friday also said that 93% of Russia’s winter crops were in a good or satisfactory condition, down from 95% reported in February.
On the other hand, Russia could extend restrictions on fertiliser exports for six months until November to help support the domestic market, Agriculture Minister Dmitry Patrushev said on Friday.
From the Middle Kingdom, China’s sow herd increased by 1.7% in February compared with a year earlier, state media China Central Television said on Monday, citing data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs.
The herd of 43.4 million sows is 5% more than targeted capacity.
From South East Asia, Malaysian palm oil futures on Friday extended losses to a seventh session to log their biggest weekly drop in more than four months, tracking weakness in rival edible oils.
Notably, the benchmark palm oil contract for June delivery on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange fell 48 ringgit, or 1.34%, to 3,521 ringgit ($795.53) a tonne.
The contract hit its lowest closing level since Oct. 4.
It has fallen 10.2% in the week, its biggest weekly drop since the week ended Nov. 18.
The sell-off in soybean oil, sunflower and rapeseed oils put pressure on palm oil prices, although estimates of lower production and end-stocks lent some support to the market.
Also, oil prices fell on worries about potential oversupply, and lower oil prices make palm oil a less attractive option as biodiesel feedstock.
From Australia, local prices finished the week down across the board, in what was a tough week in the markets.
Bids were very hard to draw out by the end of the week with a lot of buyers just stepping out of the eastern states market.
The only market that seems to have held up is WA wheat, where ASW1 values across the port zones held around $350-360/t level.
More rain is forecast this week after decent totals received last week across WA, eastern Vic, NSW and parts of southern Qld.
There is another 10-50mm pencilled in for Qld, NSW and Vic.
On the international trade scene, the Taiwan Flour Millers’ Association reportedly purchased 56,300t milling wheat from the United States in a tender on Friday which included DNS (14.5pc min. protein content) at US$355.56/t fob, HRW (12.5pc) at $357.05/t fob and soft white wheat (8.5pc-10.0pc) at $287.11/t fob.
Freight costs set at $33.99/t.
South Korean traders reportedly purchased 67,000t feed wheat at $299.90/t c&f for Sep shipment.
The grain is expected to be sourced from Black Sea origins.
Watching this week’s market …
The last week of March starts off with the Export Inspections report.
Skip ahead to Wednesday and EIA will publish their weekly ethanol production and stocks report.
On Thursday we will get the release of the Export Sales report, with NASS publishing the quarterly Hogs & Pigs report, overnight.
Thursday is also the expiration for March feeder cattle futures and options.
Finally on Friday we round out the week, month, and quarter with the quarterly Grain Stocks report and annual Prospective Planting reports from NASS.
That’s all, thank you.
We wish you a nice day and a good start to the week.
Author: Sandro F. Puglisi
