Nur-Sultan – December 4, 2020
Kazakhstan’s geography and climate vary enormously:
From steppe in the north, to desert and semiarid regions in the center, to mountains and foothills in the south and southeast.
Summer temperatures average 20°C in the north and 30°C in the south.
Winter temperatures average −18°C in the north and −3°C in the south, but can fall to −40°C in the north.
Precipitation varies from 100–200 millimeters in the desert, to 200–500 millimeters in the steppe regions, and to 500–1,600 millimeters in the southern foothills .
The growing season ranges from 70 to 120 days, with most growth in the spring.
The combination of short growing seasons, hot dry summers, long cold winters, and high winds increases the risks for both crop and livestock production.
The composition of crop production has also changed dramatically since independence, with important implications for the vulnerability of both crop and livestock output to risk.
While the area planted to wheat has returned to its pre-independence level of 12 million to 13 million hectares, wheat now accounts for 63 percent of total cropped area versus 35 percent in 1990 .
Wheat has also become a much larger component of total cereal area, as the area planted to other cereals has fallen from 8 million to 2 million hectares.
As a consequence, wheat now accounts for 85 percent of the total area planted to cereals versus 60 percent in the past.
Given that wheat output is vulnerable to both climate (drought) and (export) market risks, this increased focus on wheat and the associated reduction in crop diversification have significantly increased the agriculture sector’s exposure to risk.
Kazakhstan is a rainfed wheat production.
Drought is the major source of yield variability, due to the short growing season, low levels of precipitation, and reliance on dryland production systems.
Wheat crop trend ( Mio Mt x year )
1990 16.5
1998 5.2
2006 10.3
2011 23.2
2013 14.1
2020 18.3
Locusts are a permanent threat to agriculture, although major losses are infrequent due to effective control programs.
Spring wheat in northern Kazakhstan is particularly susceptible to locust damage .
The worst recent attack occurred in 1999, when Italian locusts infested 7 million hectares and destroyed 220,000 hectares of crops, causing losses equivalent to US$15 million.
A further attack in 2008 resulted in the loss of more than 200,000 hectares of crops in Southern Kazakhstan
Kazakhstan has become an important supplier of wheat flour, supplying much of the needs of its two neighbours, Afghanistan and Uzbekistan.
The government’s response to the coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis, which involved limiting exports, was not welcomed by the country’s millers.
Experts forecasts Kazakhstan’s total grains production in 2020-21 at 18.3 million tonnes, up from 16.5 million the year before.
About 12.9 million tonnes of the 2020-21 total is wheat, up from 11.5 million the year before.
Officials forecasts the country’s total grains exports in 2020-21 at 8.9 million tonnes, up from 7.5 million the year before.
The figure includes exports of wheat in 2020-21 of 7.5 million tonnes, up from 5.9 million tonnes in the previous year.
Exports of barley are forecast at 1.4 million tonnes in 2020-21, compared with 1.5 million the year before.
Kazakhstan is a major exporter of wheat flour, second only to Turkey.
In 2020-21 exports of wheat flour is expected at 2.5 million tonnes, up from 2 million in 2019-20.
Kazakhstan is a major supplier of flour to Afghanistan and Uzbekistan.
Production 2020/21 wheat reached the 12.7 MMT a twelve percent increase compared to the previous year (11.452 MMT), and 200,000 tons more than official numbers.
Wheat Quality
Gluten content on 28% of the total crop = 42.8%
Gluten content on 25-27% of the total crop = 23.4%
Gluten content on 23-24% of the total crop =33.8%
Balance crop less than 30 %
CLASS 1&2 = 2 % of total crop
CLASS 3 = 82 % of total crop
CLASS 4 = 10 % of total crop
CLASS 5 = 4.5 % of total crop
Class 3 wheat, which is the main exportable food quality wheat, accounted for 82 percent of new harvest.
In comparison, late year Class 3 wheat was just 65 percent.
Higher wheat quality this year was attributed to good weather conditions, including good sun during the growing period and the ability to harvest without significant rain.
Based on an earlier start and timely conclusion of harvesting and input from traders, officials estimates 2020/21 wheat exports at 6.7 MMT, an increase of 400,000 MT over the US Ag official number (6.3 MMT).
Traders also estimate Kazakhstani wheat exports at 6.7 million tons, noting fewer exports of durum wheat, which mainly goes to Russia, Italy, Turkey and other countries.
According to the preliminary estimates, in 2020, Kazakhstan l decreased the export of durum wheat to 430.000 tonnes due to the lower carry-over stocks –
Supply of Kazakh durum to Russia declined to 150 .000 tonnes, while the export to Turkey and Italy went up to 70.000 tonnes and 160.000 tonnes correspondingly.
Traders reported the normal seasonal delays at Saryagash rail station (on the border with Uzbekistan).
No grain shipments are accepted during October 1-10 due to seasonal shipments of coal.
An effect of the COVID-19 crisis has been a sharp fall in the value of Kazakhstan’s currency, the tenge, against the US dollar
Nurlan Ospanov, Chairman of the Kazakh Grain Union said :
“Kazakhstani grain exporters are constantly in search of markets and optimal routes for delivering products to consumers.
We are also working to improve the quality of exported products and establish a fair price for our products.
The Chinese market is very attractive to us because it is a huge solvent market and relatively low transportation costs associated with close logistics.
The volume of wheat supplied to China today is approximately 5.5% of the total export of Kazakhstan wheat.
According to our estimates, over the next 5 years, it will be 15-20% of our total wheat export.”
In 2018/19 Kazakhstan harvested 730.000 tonnes of durum wheat throughout the areas of 481 .000 ha.
The Central Asian nation harvesting campaign l produced 11.6 million tonnes of wheat in clean weight, up from 10.8 million tonnes last year.
Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Afghanistan are set to remain the main export markets, and shipments to China could increase to 300,000 tonnes from 256,000 tonnes last season.
Sales to Kyrgyzstan are likely to fall as it now sources more wheat from Russia, having joined a Moscow-led customs union.
