Everything is ready, for the main event next week.
On January 12, indeed, USDA will release the monthly WASDE report.
USDA’s January crop reports could has some surprises.
In fact, USDA does survey a lot more producers (at least 3X) for this set of reports than they do during the fall crop reports.
And that could have a big impact on your Dec 1 Grain Stocks number, and by extension how tight you think ending stocks will be later in the year.
Meantime, there appears to be a race to the bottom for South American production estimates.
Maybe USDA will not make large adjustments, as much of the crop under consideration is still 30-60 days from harvest.
Late season corn in Argentina is just being planted, and double crop corn in Brazil is waiting for the beans to come off.
Still all is in play and the weather market is already on.
In this context, US farm markets have seen corn prices rose 13.5 cents this week, posting a 2.3% gain from the previous Friday.
Soybeans shot up 71 cents per bushel, that means a net 5.3% single week gain.
Both meal and oil has been higher on the week, by 6.5% and 4% respectively.
In contrast, wheat futures were sharply lower in all three markets again this week, moderated by “dead cat” bounces in Chicago and KC futures on Friday.
Indeed, MPLS spring wheat was the biggest loser this week, down 6%.
Chicago SRW lost 1.6% for the week, with KC HRW down 3.3%.
Particularly, CBOT corn futures were up 13.5 cents to $6.07/bu.
CBOT soybean futures were up $0.71 at $14.10/bu.
Soymeal jumped by $25,9/smt at $425 smt.
Soy oil gained $2.25 cents at $58.78.
CBOT soft red winter (SRW) futures fell 12.3 cents to close at $7.59/bu.
KCBT hard red winter (HRW) futures shedded 26.5 cents to end at $7.75/bu.
MGE hard red spring (HRS) futures tumbled 58.8 cents to close at $9.23/bu.
In this context, as of January 6, 2022, US corn 3YC (Gulf) was at $280/mt (up $2/mt from last week).
US soybean 2Y (Gulf) quoted at $552/mt (up $18/mt from last week).
US wheat No 2 Hard Red Winter (HRW) was valued at $361/mt (down $15/mt from last week).
US wheat No 2 Soft Red Winter (SRW) was at $326/mt (down $10/mt from last week).
The USDA reported corn oil spot prices averaged 57.5 to 59 c/lb regionally during the week that ended 1/7.
That compares to last week’s averages ranging 55.6 to 57.13 cents.
Cash ethanol bids ranged from $2.07/gal in KC to $2.50/gal in SD.
Those compare to $2.43/gal – $2.66/gal prices from prior week.
Meanwhile gasoline futures were at $2.2971/gal.
DDGS FOB prices were from $8 to $15/MT higher in NOLA to $245 – $258/MT during the week.
PNW quotes were firm at $287/MT.
The weekly spot price for B100 fuel was $5/gal during the week of 1/7.
That was up from $4.88/gal last week according to the USDA.
USDA’s weekly Crush report showed the estimated processing value of soybeans was $17.29/bu on $13.90 cash beans.
That compared to $17.47 reported prior week on $13.70 beans.
The CME Synthetic Soy Crush on the board closed with a $1.972/bu margin.
In Energy market, oil prices settled lower on Friday as the market weighed supply concerns from the unrest in Kazakhstan and outages in Libya against the mixed U.S. jobs report and its potential impact on Federal Reserve policy.
Thus Brent crude settled down 24 cents, or 0.3%, to $81.75 a barrel, while U.S.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was down 56 cents, or 0.7%, at $78.90 a barrel.
However, Brent gained 5.2%, while WTI gained 5% in the first week of the year, with prices at their highest since late November, spurred on by the supply concerns.
On the freight market, the Baltic Exchange’s dry bulk sea freight index edged lower on Friday, as a decline in panamax and supramax vessel rates outweighed gains in the capesize segment.
The overall index, which factors in rates for capesize, panamax and supramax vessels, fell 7 points to 2,289.
The index has risen more than 3% this week, after posting two straight week of losses.
The capesize index rose 76 points, or 3.2%, to 2,432.
Average daily earnings for capesizes, which transport 150,000-tonne cargoes such as iron ore and coal, rose by $632 to $20,167.
The panamax index slipped 56 points, or 1.9%, to 2,957.
Average daily earnings for panamaxes, which ferry 60,000-70,000 tonne coal or grain cargoes, fell by $507 to $26,610.
The supramax index fell 50 points to its lowest level since April 2021 at 2,074.
On equities markets, U.S. stocks on Friday extended this week’s losses, with the S&P 500 falling to a 2-week low, the Dow Jones Industrials falling to 1-1/2 week low, and the Nasdaq 100 dropping to a 2-1/2 week low.
Indeed, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 4.81 points, or 0.01%, to 36,231.66 posting a weekly loss by 0,29%.
The S&P 500 lost 19.03 points, or 0.41% to 4,677.02 and fell 1,87% for the week.
The Nasdaq Composite dropped 144.96 points, or 0.96%, to 14,935.90 stumbling by 4,53% week on week.
The dollar index fell 0.63% at 95.722, and posted its biggest drop since Nov. 26.
Even with Friday’s weakness, the dollar had a slight weekly gain around 0,13%, its first in three weeks.
In Canada, as of January 3, 2022, Canadian wheat prices for FOB delivery West Coast were (Cdn$/mt):
– for the N1 class CWRS 13.5% – $511.69 per tonne;
– for the N2 class CWRS 13.0% – $498.57/t;
– for the N3 CWRS – $470.93/t;
– for the N1 CWAD 13% (durum wheat first class), average street prices in REGIONAL ZONES were at C$735.25 per tonne, while spot export basis West Coast & Central SK was at C$ 112.89 per tonne, for a total delivered FOB price Great Lakes of C$848.14.
(1USD=Cnd$1.2730).
In South America, as of January 6, 2022 – Argentina Wheat Grade 2 export price, (Up River) was at $308, down $2 from prior week.
Argentina corn feed was up $2 for the week, closing at $270.
Brazilian corn feed (Paranagua) was at $283, up $7 from prior week.
Argentina barley feed, was down $4 week on week, posting at $298.
Argentina soybean was up $26 at $603.
Brazilian soybean gained $21 finishing the week at $543.
In European market, the wheat contract, eased by 3.75 euros to 274.5 euros posting a 1,35% weekly losses.
Corn prices fell 7 euros on Friday, to close at 243.25 euros per tonne lifting by 0,1% for the week.
In rapeseed, February futures set another record high for Euronext at 828€/t at the end of the week and settled more then 9.8% higher for the week for a total 74 € per tonne gains.
Jan-21 UK feed wheat futures fell £6 from prior week, closing at £214.25/t.
Meantime, as of January 6, 2022, FOB prices in US dollar for French wheat with 11.5% protein and Jan. delivery, were at $ 316/mt, down $5/mt from prior week.
French durum wheat, FOB Port la Nouvelle was at $538/mt.
French durum wheat – basis La Pallice, quoted $508.09/mt, down $14.83 from prior week.
Spanish durum wheat Sevilla (DepSilo), was at $609.71/mt.
Italian durum wheat Bologna (Delivered to first customer), not quoted this week.
German wheat (Depsilo) with 12.5 pro was at $330.82/mt.
Baltic wheat (Delivery First) was at $284.53/mt.
Corn delivered Bordeaux Spot – July 2021 basis was at $277.75 per tonne, down $1.9 from prior week.
FOB Rhin Spot – July 2021 basis was at $285.66 per tonne, down $1.95 week on week.
Feed barley delivered Rouen – July 2021 basis was at 281.14 $/t, down $7.6.
Malting barley FOB Creil Spot – July 2021 basis was at $417.76 per tonne, down $8.53/t from prior week.
Rapessed FOB Moselle Spot – Flat – 2021 harvest was at 903.28 $/ton, up $41.59 compared to prior week.
Standard sunseed delivered St Nazaire Spot – Flat – 2021 harvest was up 0.91$ from prior week at $700.04 per tonne.
(EUR/USD=> US$1.1291).
Author: Sandro F. Puglisi
