Good morning Farmer Family …

US farm markets were lightly mixed on Friday. 

Corn prices eased slightly early in the session partly based on seasonal harvest pressure. 

However, strength from equities and a weakening U.S. Dollar kept prices in the black even if were just 0.04% higher at the bell. 

From Friday to Friday corn went home 0.8% lower. 

Soybean prices made modest inroads in the end week session, largely on support from soymeal and soyoil gains. 

Beans were also helped by a strong weekly export sales report.

Thus, soybean prices were 0.29% higher on Friday and ended the week 0.85% higher. 

Soymeal prices closed the last trading day of the week 1.11% higher and were 1.65% higher wk/wk. 

Soy oil extended its rally by another 1.53% on Friday.

That left the contract up by 9.49% wk/wk.

Chicago SRW wheat contract ended the last trade day of the week with a 0.18% gain. 

That has meant a net 1.05% loss for the week. 

Kansas City HRW wheat price pulled back by 0.16% on Friday, ending the week 0.42% lower. 

Minneapolis spring wheat closed with a 0.10% losse on Friday, but was able to have 0.8% weekly gain. 

Going inside the numbers, for the week corn prices closed down by $0.055 at $6.845/bu.

Soybean prices finished the week $0.118 higher at 13.96/bu.

Soymeal gained $6.8/smt, closing at $417.90 smt.

Soy oil soared $6.2, to close at $71.50.

CBOT soft red winter (SRW) prices tumbled $0.090 to close at $8.51/bu.

KCBT hard red winter (HRW) prices shedded $0.040, ending at $9.48/bu.

MGE hard red spring (HRS) prices were $0.072 firmer to close at $9.62/bu.

After the sessions close, the weekly CFTC data had corn spec fund traders 254,261 contracts net long at the close on 10/18. 

That was a 13,116 contract lighter net long than the previous week, coming via open longs rolled to new shorts. 

Commercial corn hedgers closed out 35.9k contracts for a net 8,380 contract weaker net short of 455,253. 

As for soybean, the report showed managed money funds changed little through the week that ended 10/18. 

With 874 closed shorts and 250 new longs, the group’s net position was up to 66,862 contracts long. 

Commercial soybean hedgers reduced exposure with 29,309 fewer open contracts. 

That weakened the net short by 5k contracts to 90,790. 

In soymeal, spec traders were adding slightly more longs than short for a 408 contract stronger net long on 2.5k new contracts and a 10/18 net long of 70,797 contracts. 

The funds were net new buyers of soy oil through the week, extending their net long by 14k contacts to 75k. 

As for wheat, CFTC reported managed money was 22,051 contracts net short in CBOT wheat futures and options as of 10/18. 

That was a 2,549 contract stronger net short through the week via a roll of existing longs to new shorts. 

In KC wheat, the CoT report had spec traders at 26,270 contracts net long, just 238 contracts weaker wk/wk. 

The funds were 307 contracts less net long in MPLS wheat, for a 3,809 contract net long as of 10/18. 

Meantime, corn basis bids were mostly steady to firm across the central U.S. after rising 3 to 15 cents higher at four Midwestern locations on Friday. 

An Iowa processor bucked the overall trend after tracking 10 cents lower.

Soybean basis bids were steady to lightly firm across the central U.S. after picking up a penny at an Ohio elevator and an Indiana processor.

As for wheat, this week, basis was mixed in the Gulf and Pacific Northwest (PNW). 

Secondary rail rates rose 6% compared to last week and an astonishing 1500% compared to the same week last year. 

Barge traffic resumed last week along the Mississippi River, a key artery for grain exports through the Gulf, but lagged behind their pace from a year ago, according to USDA’s weekly Grain Transportation Report (GTR). 

Export elevations are also firm, as wheat competes with corn and especially soybeans for available elevator space. 

Overall, the story remains the same: sluggish railroad performance, the consistently high value of the U.S. Dollar, persistent dry weather in wheat growing areas, and uncertainty over the Black Sea grain deal are all combining to keep grain prices high. 

In this context, as at October 20, 2022, FOB prices saw US wheat No 2 Hard Red Winter (HRW) valued at $437/mt (down $7/mt from last week).

US wheat No 2 Soft Red Winter (SRW) was valued at $387/mt (down $14/mt from last week).

Northern Durum offers from the Great Lakes for November 2022 delivery was valued at $11.43/bu, unchanged wk/wk ($420.00/MT).

As for corn, US corn 3YC (Gulf) was at $364/mt (up $9/mt from last week).

As for soybean, US soybean 2Y (Gulf) quoted at $607/mt (up $15 from last week).

Cash ethanol prices were lower by 1 to 10 cents/gal regionally through the week, with USDA showing prices from $2.20/gal in NE to $2.40/gal in IN. 

DDGS cash prices were mostly $5 to $15/ton lower from $210 (IN) to $340 (MO) regionally. 

Corn oil prices were within 5c/lb of last week’s quotes, from 72c to 76c per pound regionally.

USDA reported the week’s average B100 price in MN as $6.68/gal, up 3 cents through the week. 

In energy markets, oil prices settled up on Friday as hopes of stronger Chinese demand and a weakening U.S. dollar outweighed concern about a global economic downturn and the impact of interest rate rises on fuel use.

Crude is gaining support from the looming European Union ban on Russian oil, as well as the recent 2 million-barrels-per-day output cut agreed by the OPEC+.

Thus, Brent crude settled at $93.50 a barrel, up $1.12, or 1.2%. U.S. 

West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) settled at$85.05 a barrel, up 54 cents, 0.6%. 

During the session, both benchmarks had been down by more than a dollar.

Brent was up by 2% on the week, while WTI fell about 0.7%.

Traders squarred up positions ahead of the weekend after the WTI’s November contract expiry, increasing volatility.

On Thursday, oil gained after Bloomberg News reported that Beijing was considering cutting the quarantine period for visitors to seven days from 10 days. 

However there has been no official confirmation from Beijing.

Meanwhile, the U.S. oil and gas rig count, an early indicator of future output, rose two to 771 in the week to Oct. 21, energy services firm Baker Hughes Co said.

U.S. oil rigs rose two to 612 this week, their highest since March 2020, while gas rigs were unchanged at 157.

In ocean freight markets, the Baltic Exchange’s dry bulk sea freight index posted a second straight weekly fall, weighed down by weaker demand for capesize vessels, which slipped to their lowest in nearly three weeks.

The overall index, indeed, was down 18 points, or about 1%, at 1,819.

The main index was down about 1% for the week.

Particularly, the capesize index lost 40 points, or about 1.9%, to 2,071. It was down about 4.4% for the week, its second weekly fall.

Average daily earnings for capesizes, which typically transport 150,000-tonne cargoes such as coal and steel-making ingredient iron ore used in construction, fell $330 to $17,175.

The panamax index lost 17 points, or about 0.8%, to 2,144, but was up about 3% this week.

Average daily earnings for panamaxes, which usually carry coal or grain cargoes of about 60,000 to 70,000 tonnes, dropped $155 to $19,293.

The supramax index rose 2 points to 1,678.

In equity markets, Wall Street capped a volatile run for stocks with a broad rally Friday, contributing to sizable weekly gains for major indexes.

The S&P 500 rose 2.4% and notched its biggest weekly gain since June. 

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 2.5% and the Nasdaq composite ended 2.3% higher.

Particularly, the S&P 500 rose 86.97 points to 3,752.75. 

The Dow climbed 748.97 points to close at 31,082.56, and the Nasdaq added 244.87 points to 10,859.72.

Small company stocks also gained ground. The Russell 2000 index rose 37.85 points, or 2.2%, to finish at 1,742.24.

Markets have been unsettled in recent days, as stocks lurched from sharp gains early in the week to losses later in the week. 

The market appeared headed for another sell-off early Friday, but then reversed course.

Fresh signals from the Federal Reserve that it may consider easing up on its aggressive pace of interest rate hikes, pushed down Treasury yields on Friday, after hitting multiyear highs this week. 

The yield on the 10-year Treasury note, which affects mortgage rates, indeed, slipped to 4.22% from 4.24% late Thursday. 

The yield on the two-year Treasury, which tends to track investors’ expectations for Federal Reserve action on interest rates, fell to 4.49% from 4.61%.

Thus, investors have shifted their focus, for now, to the latest round of corporate earnings. 

Reports from airlines, banks, railroad operators and others have so far provided mixed financial results and forecasts.

American Express fell 1.7% after setting aside hundreds of millions of dollars to cover potential losses as the economy continues to deteriorate. 

Railroad CSX rose 1.7% after reporting solid financial results.

On the other hand, technology stocks, retailers and health care companies powered a big share of the rally. 

Indeed, Oracle rose 5%, Home Depot added 2.3% and Pfizer rose 4.8%.

In contrast, social media companies fell broadly, with Snap slumped 28.1% and Twitter shed 4.9%.

For the week, the S&P 500 climbed 4.74%, the Dow gained 4.89% and the Nasdaq rose 5.22%. 

Each of the three major indexes notched their biggest weekly percentage gains in four months.

In currency trading, the greenback tumbled against the yen on Friday, prompting analysts to suspect Tokyo of intervening to halt the Japanese currency’s slide.

Still, the dollar dipped against a basket of world currencies as the euro gathered strength.

Particularly, the dollar index fell 0.9%, with the euro up 0.77% to $0.9858.

The Japanese yen strengthened 1.94% versus the greenback to 147.30 per dollar, while Sterling was last trading at $1.1304, up 0.63% on the day.

For the week, the Dollar Index remained firm however. 

After reaching a 3-week high of 113.95, hit during the end week session, the index settled down from last week’s 113.2 to close at 112.17.

Despite its retreat, the dollar index remains near a two decade high.

Going back to analyzing other ag markets, in Canada, producers’ deliveries of common wheat in week 11 of the shipping season, were at 471,4k mt.

That was slightly weaker from 477,7k posted a week erlier.

Deliveries of durum wheat also decreased to 124.9k mt from 149.6k mt a week earlier.

Meantime, Canada exported 333.1k mt of common wheat in week 11 of the shipping season.

That was weaker from 593.9k mt a week earlier.

Durum wheat exports, in contrast, soared at 130.9k mt, down from 48.6k mt a week earlier. 

Consequentially, total Commercial Stocks of common wheat stood at 2.972,2k mt, down from 3.056,4k mt a week earlier.

As for durum, total commercial stocks were at 834,7k mt, down from 886,2k mt a prior week. 

Durum wheat exported in week ending Oct. 16 (week 11), is the largest weekly volume shipped in the 11 weeks of this crop year, while also the largest weekly volume shipped since week 5 of the 2021-22 crop year.

Cumulative exports of 560,200 mt are down 224,540 mt, or 28.6%, from the five-year average, but even down 23.8% from the pace set in 2021-22 when there was a sharply reduced production.

During the past five years, an average of 18.4% of the crop year’s total exports have been achieved in CGC data as of week 11, a pace that projects forward to 2022-23 exports of 3.045 million metric tons, well-below the 5 mmt forecast released by Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada.

While early data appears troubling, a further look does show some positive signals. 

Total producer deliveries into licensed facilities of 1.0845 mmt are well above the 821,900 mt delivered over the same period in 2021-22 and 25% higher than the five-year average.

Commercial stocks of durum in licensed facilities of 834,700 mt are up from 659,300 mt reported one year ago and 17.3% higher than the five-year average. 

When the location of the stocks is taken into account, 53% of the reported commercial stocks are reported in primary elevators in the country, which is the lowest percentage calculated for this week over the past four years, while slightly below the five-year average of 53.9%.

Meantime, cash bids have stabilized this week. 

A look at the southeast Saskatchewan average of $480.73/mt as of Oct. 20 is $95.44/mt higher than the September low, while near the highest reported since early July. 

Despite the rising bids, week 11 deliveries fell by 24,700 mt from the previous week as harvest deliveries come to an end, which may force buyers to sharpen their pencils.

It is interesting to note the spread between DTN’s cash durum index and cash spring wheat index. 

This spread closed at a modest $0.02/bushel USD on Oct. 20, which compares to the five-year average on this date at $1.24/bu USD (durum wheat over spring wheat) and the 10-year average of $1.38/bu. 

Focus will soon shift to 2023 acres and this prices trend may to improve durum acres.

Going inside the numbers, as at October 17, 2022, Canadian wheat prices for FOB delivery West Coast were (Cdn$/mt): 

– for the N1 class CWRS 13.5% – $527.14 per tonne, down C$27.48/t from prior week; 

– for the N2 class CWRS 13.0% – $519.59/t, down C$28.53 wow;

– for the N3 CWRS – $545.77/t, down C$31.72 from prior week.

As at October 17, 2022, for the N1 CWAD 13% (durum wheat first class) average street price were at C$487.23, rising by C$37.12 week on week.

The export basis West Coast & Central SK, in contrast, moved down from C$102.98 to 88.25 a tonne.

Thus, delivered FOB price Great Lakes was posted at C$575.48 (US$ 419.78/t +$18.26 wk/wk).

That represent a C$22.39/t increase from prior week.

Per latest data from European Commission, as at October 19, 2022, Durum wheat – FOB CA St Lawrence (CWAD) was offerd at C$622.13/t, down C$2.26/t week on week.

As at October 21, 2022, for the N1 CWAD 13% (durum wheat first class), average street price in REGIONAL ZONES were at C$486.43 per tonne, up C$10.66 from prior week.

(1USD=Cnd$1.3640, down from 1.3879 a week earlier).

From South America, as at October 20, 2022 – Argentina Wheat Grade 2 export price, (Up River) was at $422, up $1/t from prior week.

Argentina corn feed was down $5/t for the week, closing at $308.

Brazilian corn feed (Paranagua) was valued at $294, was down $8/t from prior week.

Argentina feed barley, was up $10/t for the week to $320.

Argentina soybean was up $6 at $598.

Brazilian soybean was down $7, finishing the week at $601.

Argentina’s wheat crop is seen sliding again due to prolonged drought plus a recent cold snap.

The current 2022/2023 wheat crop, indeed, is estimated at 15.2 million tonnes, down from last week’s forecast of 16.5 million tonnes, the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange said in its weekly report on Thursday.

That is a slashing in its production forecast by nearly 8%.

BdeC also cut its projection for fields planted with corn to 7.3 million hectares from 7.5 million hectares estimated last week, down about 3% and blamed on the months-long drought.

Freezes from Oct. 8-9 in key areas planted with wheat caused significant damage to expected yields, according to the exchange, which also reported that 53% of wheat-planted areas are experiencing between regular and bad conditions.

The new estimates for the 2022/2023 wheat harvesting season, in which most of the grain is gathered from November to January, are all far below last season’s crop of 22.4 million tonnes.

Meanwhile, Argentina’s corn farmers have to date planted 17% of their corn-designated fields for the 2022/2023 season, or down more than 9 percentage points compared to the same time during the previous cycle.

The slow pace of corn planting is due to the lack of optimal soil humidity, the BdeC report noted, which is also seen hitting yields since early planted corn tends to be more productive.

Meantime, the Rosario exchange maintained its projections for the 2022/23 corn harvest at 56 million tonnes and its 2022/23 soybean harvest at 48 million tonnes. 

The exchange also said that due to the drought farmers may opt to plant more land in soybeans, a hardier crop than corn, estimating that the planting area for the oilseed could reach 17 million hectares (42 million acres).

From Brazil, Safras and Mercado reported 19.1% of the 22/23 soybean crop has been planted as of 10/14. 

That is up from 9.7% last week, but trailing 21% last year. 

AgRural estimated 24% of the crop was planted through 10/14, up from 10% last week and 22% last year. 

AgRural reported the Brazilian 1st crop corn was 46% planted as of 10/14. 

That was up 7% points through the week and is 1% point ahead of last year’s pace. 

In this context, USDA attaché increased its forecast for soybean planted area to 42.8 million hectares for (marketing year) 2021/22, up previously from 42.5 million hectares. 

Brazil continues to expand its area due to record high domestic soybean prices. 

On this wake, USDA attaché also forecasts a record harvest at 148.5 million metric tons (MMT), increased from 144 MMT previously with planting starting earlier this year as well. 

The attaché increased the export forecast in 2022/223 to 95.7 MMT, an increase from 92 MMT. 

Post revised imports downwards due to ample supplies, now forecast at 300,000 metric tons (MT) for 2022/23. 

For 2022/23, the attaché revised the forecast for soybeans destined for processing upward to a record of 50 MMT based on strong demand for Brazilian soybean products, especially oil.”

Meantime, Brazil’s Anec expects the country’s corn exports to reach 7.18 MMT in October, which is moderately above its prior forecast from a week ago.

Anec also expects the country’s soybean exports to reach 3.77 MMT in October, which is slightly higher than its prior forecast from a week ago. 

Brazilian soymeal exports may come in at 2.038 million metric tons this month.

In Europe, sowing conditions in France remain very favorable for winter crops, with, however, temperatures still abnormally high for the season, leading to fears of sensitivity to come next spring in the event of frost.

According to the farm office FranceAgriMer, French farmers had sown 46% of the expected soft wheat area for next year’s harvest by Oct. 17, compared with 21% a week earlier and ahead of year-ago progress of 36%.

Farmers also advanced swiftly in winter barley sowing last week, with 67% of the expected area drilled by Monday against 37% a week earlier, FranceAgriMer’s cereal crop progress report showed.

Winter barley sowing was also ahead of the pace last year, when 54% of the area had been drilled by the same week.

In this context, Stratégie Grains raised the 2022-23 EU wheat crop forecast by 1.4Mt to 125.5Mt.

However it still down 3pc on previous year. 

Meantime, the French consultancy said EU corn production will fall to 50Mt this year, a “calamitously low” level, 2.5Mt lower than its previous estimate and 28pc lower than last year. 

Grain maize harvesting in France was nearly finished, with 92% of the area cut by Monday, FranceAgriMer said.

That compared with 83% the prior week and just 30% a year ago.

Still European users have already imported massive amounts from Ukraine and Brazil to offset the anticipated shortfall, so allowing the market “some breathing space”. 

In other news, multinational chemical company and fertilizer manufacturer, Yara, cut its European ammonia output to just 57pc of capacity in the third quarter as it struggled with swings in natural gas prices.

Meantime, December wheat prices on Euronext closed the week at 342 euros a tonne, down €8.75/t for the week. 

November corn price, was down €6/t for the week, closing at 334.25 euros per ton.

Rapeseed Nov contract closed at €630.75/t, down €3/t for the week.

Nov-22 UK wheat feed contract, closed at £267.5/t, down £11.5/t week on week.

In this context, as of October 20, 2022, FOB prices in US dollar for French wheat with 11.5% protein and Oct delivery, were at $337/mt, down $17 from prior week.

German wheat, Deposilo Hamburg, was valued at $353.06/t, up $44.90 from prior week.

Baltic wheat, delivery first Vilnius, was quoted $321.5, up $6.54 from prior week.

Spanish durum wheat Sevilla (Depo Silo), this week was valued at $493.1/t, up $16.77 from past week.

French durum wheat – delivered La Pallice Spot – July 2022 basis, this week was valued at $463.51/mt, up $1.76 from prior week.

French durum wheat – FOB Port la Nouvelle, this week was n.q..

Italian durum wheat Bologna (Delivered to first customer), was valued $483.24/t, up $16.63 from prior week.

Corn, delivered Bordeaux Spot – July 2022 basis, was at $334.32 per tonne, down $4.94/t from past week.

Corn FOB Rhin Spot – July 2022 basis, was down $5.11 to $321.5/t.

Feed barley delivered Rouen was at 289.94 $/t, down $12.38 per tonne.

Malting barley FOB Creil Spot – July 2022 basis was at $359.96 per tonne, up $10/t from prior week.

Rapessed FOB Moselle – 2022 harvest was at 623.28$/ton, up $7.94 compared to prior week.

Standard sunseed FOB Bordeaux – 2022 harvest was up 15$ from prior week at $714.99 per tonne.

(Eur/USD = 0.9862 vs last week 0.9721).

From Russia, despite a huge wheat harvest this season, Russia is considering an export quota on all grains, said Dmitriy Patrushev, the nation’s agriculture minister. 

Patrushev said the export quota is 25.5 MMT of grain and would begin February 15 and end June 30. 

However, the minister did not indicate how much wheat was included in the quota. 

Also, the quota still needs government approval, but not seem rextrictive.

Discussions on the Black Sea grain deal continue, a United Nations (U.N.) spokesperson said this week. U.N. trade officials met with officials in Russia this week to discuss the details. U.N. officials emphasized the importance of Russian fertilizer as “key to worldwide agricultural production.” 

Russia continues to complain that the deal is dependent on the West and blamed sanctions on logistics, bank payments, and shipping insurance that have slowed shipments of Russian fertilizer.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy on Friday accused Russia of deliberately delaying the passage of 150 vessels carrying grain exports under the U.N. grain-deal.

Kyiv has exported almost 11 million tonnes of grains and other foods since July.

Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan was quoted as saying he saw no obstacles to extending the deal.

Meantime, the agriculture ministry revised the export tax for wheat increasing it by another 3.2%.

Particularly, as of October 26, the export duty on wheat will increase to 3,028.0 from 2,934.3 rubles per ton a week earlier.

The duty on barley, also will increase to 2,524.2 rubles from 2,479.9 rubles per ton a week earlier.

For corn, in contrast, it will continue down to 1,909.1 rubles from 2,410.1 rubles a week earlier.

This new duty rates will be in effect through November 01, inclusive.

The duties were calculated based on indicative prices: $310.1 per ton for wheat ($308.3 a week earlier), $280.5 for barley ($279.80), $266.4 for corn ($278.16).

From Ukraine, Nibulon, a Ukrainian agricultural company, said it completed the first phase of its new grain export terminal at the Danube port of Izmail. 

Three Ukrainian ports ship grain down the Danube. 

Also this week, Europe’s largest land-based container

terminal began operation near the Hungarian border with Ukraine. 

The terminal allows containers to be transferred between wide and standard gauge rail tracks and between trains and trucks. 

The terminal will increase Ukrainian grain shipments from the Adriatic Sea.

From Australia, feedgrain prices rallied in Victoria, New South Wales and Queensland as flooding stymied the movement of trucks in inland regions.

Flash flooding has hit central and northern Victoria, while mostly slow-moving water has closed a number of arterial and minor roads in NSW.

Some minor roads in southern Queensland were also closed, and all affected areas were bracing for up to 100 millimetres of rain in the next eight days.

Crops are already late, and those on undulating country are still green and could therefore benefit yield-wise from the coming rain.

However, the quality outlook is of concern, with low protein in wheat a given on plains country.

Concerns about low testweights, as well as mycotoxin risk, in the wettest areas have growers loath to forward sell any of the crop they hope to harvest before the year is out.

In this context, local markets continued to rally this week. 

The damage is still a big unknown and with the rain expected to continue into next week it will not be known for a while yet.

Meantime, ASX Eastern Australia Wheat January 2023 contract traded up to $500/t while some new crop ASW1 cash wheat traded on Clear Grain Exchange at $350 FIS for Dec/Jan delivery. 

Old crop delivered markets continued to soar with prompt demand popping up due to restricted access to grain and the need to keep things moving into next week. 

Consequentially, there are plenty of challenges both for the Aussie trade and producers in the coming months.

Meantime, indicative delivered prices in Australian dollars per tonne for old crops past week were:

Barley Downs: $400, up $5 from Oct 13;

SFW wheat Downs: $430, up $15 from Oct 13;

Sorghum Downs: $420, up $28 from Oct 13;

Barley Melbourne: $405, up $10 from Oct 13;

ASW wheat Melbourne: $465, up $5 from Oct 13;

SFW wheat Melbourne: $445, up $25 from Oct 13.

As for new crops, past week indicative prices for delivery in Jan-Feb were:

Barley Downs: $385, unchanged from Oct 13;

SFW wheat Downs: $415, up $15 from Oct 13;

Sorghum Downs: $390, up $5 from Oct 13;

Barley Melbourne: $375, up $15 from Oct 13;

ASW wheat Melbourne: $460 up $20 from Oct 13;

SFW wheat Melbourne: $390, unchanged from Oct 13.

(AUD/USD=> US$0.6378 vs. US$0.6203 prior week).

Meantime, according to the USDA attaché, Australia is on the path to a third consecutive bumper grain crop in marketing year (MY) 2022/23 after a record-setting winter crop and strong summer crop production in MY 2021/22. 

Particularly, wheat production is forecast at 34 million metric tons (MMT), down from the record-breaking MY 2021/22 crop of 36.3 MMT but still the second-largest in history. 

Similarly, barley production is forecast at 12.2 MMT, down from the previous year’s 13.9 MMT record. 

Sorghum production is forecast to achieve the fourth-largest on record in MY 2022/23 at 2.6 MMT and exports at a near-record 2.1 MMT. 

With plentiful irrigation water available, rice production in MY 2022/23 is forecast to continue to grow for the third successive year to 575,000 MT.

October IGC estimates

The International Grains Council reduced estimated global corn output by 2 MMT to 1.166 billion in their latest update, versus year-ago totals of 1.217 billion metric tons. 

That came via cuts to the EU and U.S., only offset in part by an increase for China. 

Particularly, EU corn output is now seen down at 53.5 million tonnes versus 56.2 million previously, and the United States, is now seen producing 353 million tonnes versus 354.2 million.

Meantime, consumption was reduced by 3 for a net carryout forecast of 258 MMT. 

The IGC, indeed, expects the U.S., will ship just 54.6 million tonnes of corn in 2022/23, versus a previous forecast for 57.8 million tonnes of shipments.

This will leave the country with closing corn stocks of 29.8 million, down from 31 million expected previously.

IGC also reduced their global soybean production outlook by 1 MMT to 386 MMT. 

However, that is still up sharply from last year’s 355 MMT and from 2020/21’s 370 MMT. 

They had 54 MMT leftover for global ending stocks. 

As for wheat, the October IGC estimates show a mostly unchanged balance sheet from Sept. 

Production was left at 792 MMT. 

Argentina was reduced by 500k MT but offset by increases to U.S., Russia, and Australia. 

On net, stocks were lifted by 200k to 285.8 MMT. 

Watching next week’s market

On Monday, we will get the weekly Export Inspections and Crop Progress reports, along with the monthly Cold Storage report. 

On Wednesday EIA will publish their weekly ethanol production and stocks update. 

Thursday afternoon is the weekly Export Sales report from FAS. 

That’s all, thank you.

We wish you a good day and a good weekend.

Author: Sandro F. Puglisi

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