US farm markets, closed with mixed result on Thursday, as traders squarred their positions ahead of the long three-day holiday weekend.
The market, indeed, is closed since today, Good Friday, and for all the Easter weekend.
It will resume trading Sunday evening in the USA, while on Tuesday in Europe, with May options expire on April 22nd.
In this context, corn prices firmed by 0.86%, though new crop stayed fractionally red at the close.
Soybean prices were in the black, with May up by 0.37% and July with fractional gains.
New crop prices, meantime, were down 0.28%.
Soymeal ended the last trading day of the week 0.70% higher.
Soy oil closed 1.02% stronger and set new all time high.
In contrast, wheat prices stumbled significantly.
The Thursday session, indeed, closed with double digit weakness in the wheat complex, due profit takings ahead of the long holiday weekend.
Thus, SRW closed 1.53% lower.
HRW ended the day 1.7% in the red.
Spring wheat closed 1.25% lower.
For this shortened week, we had enough story lines globally, to keep mostly prices in advancing.
Corn prices, indeed, rallied another 2.8% during the week.
New crop December was up 2.69%.
Soybeans, as for old crop, slipped by 0.40% this week, although new crop were up 0.40% for the week.
Soymeal was the drag on the market, with May down 1.45%.
Soy oil rose 5.05% for the week, meantime.
Despite the losses on Thursday, the wheat complex shot higher over the last four days.
Chicago wheat was the leader of the complex, with May up 4.28% on the week.
KC was close behind, rallying 4.27%.
MPLS was up 1.53% on the week.
Going inside the numbers, CBOT corn prices, closed up $0.215 at $7.90/bu.
CBOT soybean prices finished the week $0.067 lower at $16.82/bu.
Soymeal fell by $6.8/smt for the week at $461.4 smt.
Soy oil gained $3.79 cents, to close at $78.91.
May CBOT soft red winter (SRW) prices soared by $0.450 to close at $10.97/bu.
May KCBT hard red winter (HRW) prices added $0.472 ending at $11.54/bu.
May MGE hard red spring (HRS) prices gained $0.172 to close at $11.45/bu.
Meantime, as of April 13, 2022, US corn 3YC (Gulf) was at $356/mt (up $4/mt from last week).
US soybean 2Y (Gulf) quoted at $669/mt (up $7/mt from last week).
As for wheat, US wheat No 2 Hard Red Winter (HRW) was valued at $514/mt (up $38/mt from last week).
US wheat No 2 Soft Red Winter (SRW) was at $453/mt (up $27/mt from last week).
The Northern Durum, continued to be offered from the Great Lakes for April/May 2022 at at $595/MT ($16.19/bu) (unchanged from prior week).
Meantime, corn basis bids were steady to mixed on Thursday, dropping as much as 6 cents at an Ohio elevator and firming as much as 5 cents at an Illinois ethanol plant.
Soybean basis bids were steady to weak after dropping 3 cents at an Ohio elevator and 9 cents at an Illinois river terminal.
As for wheat, basis this week was flat in both the Gulf and Pacific Northwest (PNW).
Only soft white (SW) prices saw a slight decrease for nearby delivery.
Despite higher futures this week and sluggish export sales, basis has remained firm.
Wheat export logistics continue to encounter problems adding to cost.
Rail performance has remained so poor that the Surface Transportation Board (STB) will hold a public hearing on the issue at the end of April with executives from all four U.S. Class One railroads expected to testify.
In energy markets, oil prices settled higher on Thursday.
Brent futures, indeed, settled up $2.92, or 2.68%, at $111.70 a barrel.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures closed $2.70 or 2.59% higher at $106.95 a barrel.
Both contracts recorded their first weekly gain in April.
Last Friday, indeed, Brent crude futures had settled at $102.78 a barrel while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were at $98.26.
Thus, for the week, Brent rose by 8.68%, while WTI soared by 8.84%.
The New York Times reported that the European Union was moving toward adopting a phased-in ban of Russian oil.
However, the International Energy Agency had warned on Wednesday that roughly 3 million barrels per day of Russian oil could be shut in from May onwards due to sanctions or buyers voluntarily shunning Russian cargoes.
Major global trading houses are planning to curtail crude and fuel purchases from Russia’s state-controlled oil companies in May.
Meantime, Russia’s Energy Ministry said it was limiting access to its statistics on oil and gas production and exports.
Traders also adjusted their position on Thursday as U.S. May crude options expire on Thursday.
Meantime, U.S. oil rigs rose by two to 548 this week, their highest since April 2020.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported on Wednesday that U.S. oil stocks rose by more than 9 million barrels last week, driven partly by releases from strategic reserves.
However, Chinese refiners are set to cut crude throughput this month by about 6%, to ease bulging fuel inventories during recent lockdowns.
In freight markets, the Baltic Exchange’s dry bulk sea freight index rose for a third straight session on Thursday and was set for a weekly gain, thanks to a jump in rates across vessel segments.
The overall index, which factors in rates for capesize, panamax and supramax shipping vessels, indeed, rose 69 points, or about 3.3%, to 2,137 points.
The index added 4% this week, its first gain in five weeks.
The capesize index jumped 110 points, or 8.02%, to 1,481 points, its highest in over a week.
It notched a weekly gain of about 2.6%.
Average daily earnings for capesizes, which typically transport 150,000 tonne cargoes such as iron ore and coal, increased by $915 to $12,285.
The panamax index climbed 74 points, or about 2.5%, to 3,042 points.
The index rose 9.5% for the week.
Average daily earnings for panamaxes, which usually carry coal or grain cargoes of about 60,000 to 70,000 tonnes, rose by $667 to $27,378.
The supramax index gained 36 points to 2,497 points.
For the week shedded only 5 points.
On week 15, the Azov and Black Sea region maintains a high level of freight rates.
Thus, the rate for a 3K wheat parcel from Azov to Marmara Sea ports is $83 per ton, Sea Lines shipbrokers report.
Despite the high export fees and some reduction in demand, freight rates are not decreasing, contrary to the expectations of many market players.
The main destination is Turkey, there are quite few requests for other destinations at the moment, although there are some shipments to Italy, Greece or Egypt.
The freight market is also actively growing in the Black Sea region, which affects the amount of tonnage in the Sea of Azov.
Market players expect that freight rates should still go down slightly in the coming week to allow charterers to successfully conclude trade contracts.
According to Sea Lines, on week 15, freight rates for wheat parcels from Azov made $78 to the Black Sea, $80 to Marmara, $95to Mersin and $97 to Egypt.
Freight rates from Rostov AB (after bridge) are $1 above, from Rostov BB (before bridge) the same, from Yeisk and Taganrog $1 below, and from Temryuk $3 below those from the port of Azov.
In the Caspian, freight rates remain stable.
On week 15, freight rates for shipping corn by 3,000 dwt bulkers to Iran make $20 from Aktau, $25 from Makhachkala, and $30 from Astrakhan.
In equity markets, U.S. stock indexes Thursday posted moderate losses.
A jump in T-note yields Thursday undercut technology stocks and weighed on the overall market.
T-note yields rose, and stocks fell after New York Fed President Williams said speeding up the pace of interest-rate increases to include hikes in increments of a half-percentage point is a “reasonable option” for the Fed given how low rates are now.
Thus, bond yields rose again, sending the 10-year Treasury yield to 2.83%.
Consequentially, technology stocks led the way lower, offsetting gains elsewhere in the market.
Microsoft fell 2.7%.
After Musk has criticized Twitter for not living up to free speech principles Twitter’s stock fell 1.7% at $45.08, well below Musk’s offering price of $54.20 a share.
U.S. economic data Thursday and Q1 corporate earnings results were mixed.
U.S. weekly initial unemployment claims rose +18,000 to 185,000, showing a weaker labor market than expectations of +170,000.
U.S. Mar retail sales rose +0.5% m/m, but weaker than expectations of +0.6% m/m, although Feb retail sales were revised upward to +0.8% m/m from +0.3% m/m.
Mar retail sale ex-autos rose +1.1% m/m, stronger than expectations of +1.0% m/m and Feb retail sales ex-autos were revised upward to +0.6% m/m from +0.2% m/m.
The U.S. Mar import price index ex-petroleum rose +1.1% m/m, stronger than expectations of +1.0% m/m.
Thus, retailers and other companies that rely on consumer spending also weighed on the market.
In this context, Amazon fell 2.5%.
However, the University of Michigan U.S. Apr consumer sentiment unexpectedly rose +6.3 to 65.7, stronger than expectations of a decline to 59.0.
Energy stocks, on its part, rose along with the price of crude oil.
Exxon Mobil rose 1.2%.
Volatile markets and the war in Ukraine caused deal-making to dry up while a slowdown in the housing market meant fewer people sought mortgages.
Consequentially, a quartet of big banks reported noticeable declines in their first-quarter profits as the latest earnings season kicks into gear.
Particularly, Citigroup rose 1.6% while Wells Fargo fell 4.5%. Morgan Stanley rose 0.7% and Goldman Sachs slipped 0.1%.
Thus, the S&P 500 fell 54 points, or 1.21 to 4,392.59, ending a shortened trading week with a 2.13% decline.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 113.36 points, or 0.33% to 34,451.23, down 0.78% for the week.
However, losses in the Dow Jones Industrials were limited after Nike jumped more than +4% after the company’s management expressed optimism about its China business.
The Nasdaq dropped 292.51 points, or 2.14% to 13,351.08, posting 2.63% weekly losses.
Smaller company stocks also lost ground.
The Russell 2000 fell 1% to 2,004.98.
Meantime, Asian shares fell this morning in muted trading as markets are closed for Good Friday and other holidays.
Sydney, Sydney, Manila, Bangkok and Hong Kong are among markets observing holidays on Friday.
Shutdowns in major Chinese cities due to coronavirus outbreaks and the war in Ukraine are weighing on sentiment.
The head of the International Monetary Fund warned Thursday that Russia’s war against Ukraine was darkening the economic prospects for most of the world’s countries and reaffirmed the danger high inflation presents to the global economy.
Thus, Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 lost 0.3% to finish at 27,093.19. South Korea’s Kospi dipped 0.8% to 2,696.06.
The Shanghai Composite lost 0.5% to 3,211.24.
In currency trading, the U.S. dollar rose to 126.42 Japanese yen from 125.89 yen.
The euro cost $1.0801, down from $1.0832.
The euro plunged to a two-year low against the dollar as comments from ECB President Christine Lagarde were viewed as a sign that the bank was in no rush to raise interest rates.
The dollar index rose 0.413% for the session and 0.57% for the week closing at 100.326.
Past week was at 99.753.
On the weather side, across the lower Plains states the week was dry except for eastern Oklahoma, the only area free of significant dryness.
Parts of Texas have recorded only 2% of average rainfall and in west Texas, less than 10% of average precipitation has been observed.
Oklahoma has received less than 25% of normal rainfall.
Low humidity and strong winds have only made conditions worse.
Northwestern South Dakota and a small portion of eastern North Dakota received significant rain this week, as did northwestern Nebraska.
In the western region of the U.S., it was another dry week with no improvements recorded to dry conditions in wheat growing areas.
Most of the central U.S. will see at least some measurable moisture over Easter weekend, per the latest 72-hour cumulative precipitation map from NOAA. Parts of the Mid-South are likely to see the largest amounts between Friday and Monday.
NOAA’s 8-to-14-day outlook predicts seasonally wet weather for the western half of the country between April 21 and April 27, with warmer-than-normal conditions likely for most of the Midwest and Plains during this time.
On the supply side, the U.S. Department of Agriculture on Monday rated 32% of U.S. winter wheat in good to excellent condition, with Montana, Oklahoma, and Oregon saw the most improvement from last week.
That was up two percentage points from a week ago and above an average of analyst expectations, though CA, SD, and WA were worse.
Also, despite improving TX , it is still at the bottom.
This is still among the poorest ratings on record for this time of year in winter wheat as drought persisted in the Plains wheat belt.
Approximately 69% of the U.S. winter wheat crop, indeed, was in an area experiencing drought as of April 5, the government has said.
Meantime, NASS also reported 5% of the 22/23 winter wheat crop was headed as of 4/10.
That was up form 4% last week, with progress notably in CA and NC.
TX winter wheat was 26% headed, up from 23%.
The U.S. spring wheat crop, meantime, was 6% planted, the government said, matching trade expectations and ahead of the five-year average of 5%.
For corn, the USDA said planting was 2% complete, unchanged from the previous week and behind the average analyst estimate of 4%.
Sorghum planting was 14% dine as of 4/10, up by 1 ppt as Texsas reached 48% planted.
There was snow up in North Dakota, the (Mississippi River) Delta was too wet, the Midwest was cool and wet.
It was not an ideal start to the planting season, some analysts said.
On the demand side, Weekly EIA data showed ethanol production slipping another 8,000 barrels per day to 995,000 bpd.
Stocks also fell to a 9-week low 24.803 million barrels, a 1.1 million barrel drop.
President Biden indicated that EPA would permit E15 sales nationally from June 1 to September 15.
They would historically have been halted during the summer months in some high volume markets.
There are about 2,300 E15 pumps in operation, mostly in the Midwest.
The weekly Export Sales report indicated 1.333 million metric tonnes of old crop sold in the week that ended on April 7.
That was at the high end of estimates and a 4-week high.
New crop bookings were tallied at 403,100 MT, a17 week high.
China was the exclusive buyer for new crop during the week.
US old crop corn export commitments (shipped plus outstanding sales) are now at 55.769 MMT, 17% below last year at this time.
That takes them to 88% of the full year WASDE forecast, slightly behind the average pace of 89%.
Accumulated exports are 56% of the full year projection, 1% above normal.
803 mbu (32%) remain on the books, meantime.
USDA reported 8,510 MT of old crop sorghum was sold during the week that ended 4/7.
Milo shipments were reported at 142,169 MT for a MYTD export of 4.22 MMT.
As for soybean, the report showed old crop bean bookings in the week that ended on April 7 at 548,900 MT.
That was down from 800k MT last week, though inline with pre-report estimates.
For new crop, USDA reported 458k MT of soybean sales with China having bought 267k MT of the total.
Forward sales totaled 8.92 MMT as of 4/7, up 51% from last year.
China holds 2/3 of the business.
US soybean exporters have either sold or shipped 56.636 MMT of the 21/22 crop, now just 7% smaller than last year’s record buying pace.
Total export commitments are 98% of the USDA full year estimate, outpacing the 94% average for this date.
Soybean exports were 806,538 MT which left the season’s total at 45.13 MMT – or 78% of the WASDE forecast.
There were still 11.51 MMT on the books as of 4/7, which has the total commitment at 93% of USDA’s export forecast.
For the products, USDA data had 174,945 MT of meal bookings and 6,124 MT of soy oil sales – both within the range of estimates.
Soymeal exports were tallied at 128,828 MT and set the season’s total at 6.43 MMT.
Soyoil shipments were 2,979 MT on the week for 500,439 MT for the season.
As for wheat, old crop wheat sales were at 96,100 MT for the week ending 4/7.
That was down from 156k MT last week, and was below the range of pre-report estimates.
New crop wheat bookings were reported at 225,217 MT, which left the forward book at 1.903 MMT.
That is down 4% from sales into the current season.
HRW made up most of the forward sale, with 44% of the total.
Only 26.5% of forward commitments are HRW, as HRS holds a 28% share and SRW is locked in for 26% of the total.
There are also 286,000 MTs of white wheat on the books for 22/23 and 64,380 MT of durum.
Old crop wheat export commitments are now 19.520 MMT.
That is just 91% of USDA’s full year forecast of 785 mbu.
They would normally be 102% by now.
Shipments to date are still 22% smaller than a year ago, at 16.357 MMT.
That is 76% of the USDA projection vs. the average of 82% by now.
NOPA is set to release March crush data on Friday.
Ahead of the release, analysts expect NOPA members crushed 181.991 mbu of soybeans in March.
Estimates range from 179.2 to 186 mbu, compared to last year’s 177.98 and Feb’s 165.05 mbu.
Member BO stocks are estimated at 2.135 billion lbs.
Meantime, USDA announced a private export sale for 132k MT of old crop beans to China on Thursday.
The funds were net buyers, for 2,500 lots of corn and 2,000 lots of soybeans.
They were net sellers for 7,000 lots of wheat.
From Canada, as of April 11, 2022, Canadian wheat prices for FOB delivery West Coast were (Cdn$/mt):
– for the N1 class CWRS 13.5% – $572.86 per tonne, up C$31.8/t from prior week;
– for the N2 class CWRS 13.0% – $565.9/t, up C$31.27 wow;
– for the N3 CWRS – $584.47/t, up C$54.44 from prior week.
As of April 4, 2022, for the N1 CWAD 13% (durum wheat first class) deferred average prices for delivery in May/Jun ’22 were at C$551.16 unchanged week on week.
Meanwhile, export basis West Coast & Central SK increased from C$ 192.45 to 200.43 per tonne, as delivered FOB price Great Lakes was posted at C$ 751.59, up C$7.98 from prior week.
Meanwhile, as of April 12, 2022, the durum wheat (CWAD) FOB price for delivery in St. Lawrence, was at C$762.18 per tonne up C$ 0.55 from prior week.
As of April 14, 2022, for the N1 CWAD 13% (durum wheat first class), average street prices in REGIONAL ZONES were at C$575.38 per tonne, up C$0.12 from prior week.
(1USD=Cnd$1.2598 up from past week when was 1.2589).
From South America, as of March 31, 2022 – Argentina Wheat Grade 2 export price, (Up River) was at $413, up $17 from prior week.
Argentina corn feed was up $2/t for the week, closing at $313.
Brazilian corn feed (Paranagua) was valued at $350, down $5 from prior week.
Argentina feed barley, was down $10/t to $355.
Argentina soybean was up $9 at $654.
Brazilian soybean rose $10 finishing the week at $665.
Meantime, Argentinian truckers agreed on Thursday night to call off a strike that had paralyzed grains transport in the country since Monday, the transport ministry said.
Truckers represented by the Federation of Argentine Carriers (FETRA) had been demanding higher freight rates and talks with the government on Wednesday failed to make progress.
The protest “was finally resolved with an (increase of) 20% and the immediate lifting of the strike”.
Nearly 85% of grains in Argentina are transported to ports by truck, and the strike threatened grain exports in one of the world’s top food exporters.
Argentina registered a monthly inflation rate of 6.7% in March, elevating the annual inflation rate to 55.1%.
The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange left their corn output unchanged as harvest progressed to 19% complete.
BAGE reported the Argentine soy harvest at 14% complete as of 4/13.
USDA’s Ag Attache estimated Brazil’s 22/23 soy crop at 139 MMT on a 1.8m HA area expansion.
In Europe, Thursday session was once again eventful, with some adjustments of positions before this very long weekend.
Euronext, indeed, will be closed today and next Monday.
FranceAgriMer, raised its forecast for 2021/22 French soft wheat exports to 17.7 MMT.
The increase is mostly for countries inside the European Union (EU); exports outside the EU were reduced.
They also released crop progress reports for French soft wheat and durum.
Soft wheat is rated 92% good to excellent while durum wheat is rated 85% good to excellent.
Winter barley is rated 87% good to excellent, while spring barley is rated 92% good to excellent.
Corn sowing is now 8% complete.
Strategie Grains on Thursday lowered its forecast for European Union soft wheat exports this season, with the consultancy’s monthly cereals report citing significant shipments from Russia despite the war.
The French firm, indeed, cut its estimate of EU soft wheat exports in the 2021/22 season to June to 31.4 million tonnes from the 32.5 million forecast in March.
However, Strategie Grains increased its projection of EU soft wheat exports in 2022/23 by 0.5 million tonnes to 30.3 million, factoring in a protracted conflict in Ukraine and poor crop weather in the United States.
It also trimmed by 200,000 tonnes its forecast of EU soft wheat production for 2022/23, now seen at 126.7 million tonnes, more than 3 million tonnes below this season’s output.
EU wheat supply is still expected to be balanced next season, thanks to lower demand for wheat in animal feed because of difficulties in the livestock sector, it said.
The consultancy reduced by 1.5 million tonnes its forecast for soft wheat use in feed while also reducing its estimate of expected feed demand for maize (corn) and barley by about 1 million tonnes each.
German farm group DRV revised up its 2022/23 grain output to 43.6 MMT, a 1% increase from earlier estimates.
DRV cited good weather following heavy rainfall this month for the increase.
Still the group noted rainfall is below average and more will be needed.
Wheat production in Germany is forecast at 22.7 MMT, up 6.2% compared to last season.
In this context, May wheat price on Euronext rose 28.25 euros per tonne from prior week, to close at 401 euros.
June corn price was 10.25 euros higher for the week, closing at 332.75 euros per ton.
Rapeseed May 2022 contract gained €43/t for the week, to close €1004/t.
May-22 UK feed wheat futures, lifted £13.25 from prior week, closing at £321/t.
Meantime, as of April 13, 2022, FOB prices in US dollar for French wheat with 11.5% protein and May delivery, were at $444/mt, up $33 from prior week.
French durum wheat, FOB Port la Nouvelle continued to be not quote.
French durum wheat – basis La Pallice, was at $465.56/mt, up $19.56 from prior week.
Spanish durum wheat Sevilla (DepSilo), NA.
Italian durum wheat Bologna (Delivered to first customer), was valued this week at $571.67 per tonne down $2.69 from past week.
German wheat (Depsilo) with 12.5 pro was at $438.49 per tonne, up $0.11 from prior week.
Baltic wheat (Delivery First) was at $365.95/t, up $1.54 from prior week.
Corn, delivered Bordeaux port was at $372.45 per tonne, up $5.86/t from past week.
Corn FOB Rhin Spot – July 2021 basis was at $389.77.
Feed barley FOB Rouen was at 424.41$/t, up $32.8 per tonne.
Malting barley FOB Creil Spot – July 2021 basis was at $454.73 per tonne, up $3.29/t from prior week.
Rapessed FOB Moselle – 2021 harvest was at 1097.86$/ton, up $41.6 compared to prior week.
Standard sunseed FOB Bordeaux – 2021 harvest was up 27$ from prior week at $1066 per tonne.
(Eur/USD = 1.0827 vs last week 1.0878).
From North Africa, Morocco’s agriculture minister said that the North African country would likely lose 53% of its cereals harvest after
experiencing the worst drought in decades.
Rainfall was 41% below average this season.
Moroccan farmers planted 3.5 million hectares of cereals this season, 44% was soft (non-durum) wheat and 24% was durum.
Only 21% of the crop was rated good while 16% was average.
The state grains agency ONICLE said that it would gradually build up its wheat stockpiles because of the smaller domestic supply.
From the Black sea basin, Russian wheat export prices were stable last week.
The rouble strength against the dollar as well as domestic weaker demand, weighened on grain prices.
According to the IKAR, indeed, as of April 11, 2022, wheat prices with 12.5% protein content from the Black Sea ports were stable at $368 free on board (FOB) last week, meanwhile SovEcon said that wheat export prices were assessed between $370 and $380 per tonne.
Price for domestic 3rd class wheat, European part of Russia, exludes delivery, was at 16,725 rbls/t ($206.55), down 350 rbls from prior week, according to Sovecon;
Sunflower seeds were at 46,500 rbls/t, -2,625 rbls (Sovecon);
Domestic sunflower oil was at 123,350 rbls/t, -5,000 rbls (Sovecon);
Price for export sunfloweroil was at $1,830/t -$20 (IKAR);
Soybeans were at 52,300 rbls/t, -800 rbls (Sovecon);
White sugar, Russia’s south, was at $898.4/t +$53 (IKAR).
($1 = 80.8975 roubles).
Meantime, the Russian Ag. Min has amended the export tax for wheat, barley and corn for the week of April 20-26, 2022.
Particularly, the export duty will be $110.7 on wheat, $76.0 on barley and $66.1 on corn.
Indicative prices will be $358.2 for wheat, $293.6 for barley and $279.5 for corn.
That is compared, with prior week (April 13-19) when the tax was $101.4 for wheat, $75.4 for barley and $70.6 for corn, while indicative price were $344.9 for wheat, $292.8 for barley and $285.9 for corn.
The duty on the export of sunflower oil from Russia from May 1 will amount to $ 372.2 /ton against $ 313 / ton in April, follows from the materials of the Ministry of Agriculture.
The rate is calculated based on the indicative price of $1531.8 per ton.
Also, the agricultural department for the first time calculated the duty on the export of sunflower meal: from May 1, it will amount to $96.3/t.
The indicative price of meal is determined at the level of $322.7/t.
According to the portal Oilworld.ru as of April 13, the cost of offers for the supply of sunflower oil for April was $1920/ton, which was the maximum delivery price for the last six days.
The cost of supply offers in May and June amounted to $1,900/ton, which was also the highest in the last six days.
In Ukraine, according to APK-Inform, the indicative export prices of new-crop wheat with 12.5% protein decreased in Ukraine last week to 320-340 USD/t FOB.
The absence of new deals, growing freight rates, lower demand from importers and hopes for end of the war before the new season begins pressured the prices.
Good condition of winter wheat, progress of spring planting and forecast of favorable weather as well as high stocks of wheat amid tiny export in March weighted on the prices too.
The Ministry of Agrarian Policy informed that Ukraine had exported 309 thsd tonnes of wheat in March compared to 1.04 mln tonnes in February.
Export prices of Ukrainian corn on western land borders also fell.
The bid/offer prices of corn for delivery in April-May totaled 230-240/240-250 USD/t DAP Izov (Poland), down 10-15 USD/t the week ago.
The bid/offer prices of corn decreased to 245-260/255-270 USD/t DAP Chop (Slovakia).
The delivery to the port of Constanta (Romania) totaled 300-315/310-320 USD/t.
The bid/offer prices of corn declined to 245-250/250-260 USD/t DAP Mohyliv-Podilskyi (Moldova).
The surplus of the supply over the demand amid the absence of shipments through seaports, the logistic difficulties as well as the limited capacity of land exports and large stocks of corn were the key bearish factors.
The indicative export prices of Ukrainian barley both old and new crops were also decreasing.
By the end of the last week, the indicative offer prices of old-crop barley had decreased by 15 USD/t to 370-395 USD/t FOB (April-May).
It was average 5 USD/t higher compared to the prices of 12.5% wheat.
The offer prices of new-crop barley totaled 330-350 USD/t FOB (July-August), up by 10 USD/t compared to the forward prices of 12.5% wheat.
The key price determining factors were similar to those on the wheat and corn market.
From the Middle Kingdom, China’s Ministry of Agriculture announced the winter wheat crop had improved more than expected.
The ministry noted first and second grade wheat production was average with normal levels.
Heavy rain in the fall delayed planting.
The ministry warned that strict lockdowns to prevent the spread of COVID-19 could keep farmers from accessing their fields and cut off needed supplies for farmers ahead of harvest.
In Australia, feedgrains have traded mostly steady to higher this week as storm lotto continues in the north and a record grain-export program is at full tilt in the south.
With Australia this week in the first of three holiday-shortened weeks, and Queensland with an extra one for its May 2 Labour Day, trade sources say finding available drivers to carry booked loads is a major problem.
COVID-19 cases have further tightened the availability of drivers.
Consumers appear to be mostly covered into early May to cover the Easter and Anzac Day holiday weeks, and are nipping into the market when trade and export shorts are not.
In this context, indicative delivered prices in Australian dollars per tonne were:
Barley Downs: $365 up $5 from Apr 7;
SFW wheat Downs: $405, up $15 from Apr 7;
Sorghum Downs: $350, unchanged from Apr 7;
Barley Melbourne: $405, up $5 from Apr 7;
ASW wheat Melbourne: $408 down $12 from Apr 7.
SFW wheat Melbourne: $405 unchanged from Apr 7.
(AUD/USD=> US$0.7418).
On international trade scene, South Korean animal feed maker Nonghyup Feed Inc (NOFI) has bought an estimated 69,000 tonnes of animal feed corn in an international tender which closed on Thursday.
The tender had sought up to 138,000 tonnes but offers for a second 69,000-tonne consignment were rejected with no purchase made.
The corn was bought for arrival in South Korea around Aug. 10 at an estimated premium of 202 U.S. cents a bushel cost and freight (c&f) over the Chicago July 2022 corn contract CN2.
The seller was believed to be trading house Cargill.
NOFI had only on April 12 bought 207,000 tonnes of feed corn in an international tender.
Black Sea origin corn was excluded from the tender on Thursday.
Shipment for the consignment bought on Thursday was sought if sourced from the U.S. Pacific Northwest coast between July 8-27, if from the U.S. Gulf between June 18-July 7, from South America between June 8-27 or from South Africa between June 23-July 12.
Watching next week market, the day following Easter will start with Export Inspections data from USDA out on Monday afternoon.
NASS will release the Crop Progress report that afternoon.
Switch ahead to Wednesday and EIA will put out their weekly report showing ethanol production and stocks.
On Thursday, the USDA will release their weekly Export Sales report.
Fast forward to Friday and USDA will release both their Cattle on Feed and Cold Storage reports.
It is also the expiration day for May grain options.
Taiwan booked 47,120 MT of milling wheat from the US.
Japan’s MOA tender for 114,645 MT of wheat is to be filled from U.S., Canada, and Australia.
Jordan issued a new international tender to purchase 120.000 t of milling wheat from optional origins that closes on April 20.
The grain is for shipment in June and/or August.
Jordan has failed to close deals on multiple similar tenders issued earlier this spring.
