US farm markets plunged this week.
Only Oats, up just $0,020 and Feeder Cattle, unchanged, escaped the red ink.
US grain prices started the March month bullish, with net changes from the Feb 25 close to the March 4 close of +$0.96, +$0.82 and +$3.55 per bushel respectively for corn, soybeans and wheat.
Changes this week were -$0.19, -$1.27 and -$1.18 respectively.
However, both corn and wheat closed the month positive, up $0.50 and $0.80 respectively.
Soybeans, in contrast, were down 31 cents net for March, all of which occurred on March 31, after USDA published Planting intentions & Quarterly stocks in the USA.
Particularly, Planting intentions had for corn at 89.5 million acres vs. 92 million expected.
That was nearly 3.9 million below 2021.
As for soybeans, we had 91 million acres vs. 88.7 expected.
That was more than 3.3 million above 2021.
All wheat acres estimated were at 47.4 million, vs. 47.8 expected.
Of that, total winter wheat was slightly below trade estimates at 34.24 million, with spring wheat coming in 600,000 acres below the trade at 11.2 million.
Quarterly stocks in billions of bushels were for corn at 7.85 vs. 7.88 expected, however that was up 154 mbu vs. last year.
As for soybean stocks were at 1.93 against 1.90 expected.
That meant up 369 mbu vs. last year.
As for wheat stocks were at 1.03, down from 1.05 expected, and down 186 mbu vs. last year.
In this context, the USDA report was particularly bullish for corn and bearish for soybeans.
For wheat it was from neutral to bullish.
However, losses continued to extend also on April 1 session both for corn, soybean and wheat too.
Indeed, old crop corn futures, for May delivery, were down 2.52% this week.
However, new crop December was up 2.84% since last Friday mainly due to the bullish results in the Planting intentions report.
Soybeans, in contrast, gave back all of last week’s gain and more, as May was down 7.46% on the week while November contract fell 6.01% on the week.
Soy meal was down 7.77%.
Soy oil was down 4.75%.
Chicago was down 10.68% on the week.
Kansas lost 8.8% since last Friday.
MGE wheat, took it a little better than the rest of the complex, slipping “only” 3.53% this week.
Going inside the numbers, CBOT corn futures close was down $0.19 at $7.54/bu.
CBOT soybean futures finished the week $1.275 weaker at $17.10/bu.
Soymeal slumped by $37.9/smt for the week at $450 smt.
Soy oil sheded $3.55 cents, to close at $71.20.
May CBOT soft red winter (SRW) futures tumbled by $1.178 to close at $9.85/bu.
May KCBT hard red winter (HRW) futures were down $0.977 ending at $10.13/bu.
May MGE hard red spring (HRS) futures eased by $0.390 to close at $10.65/bu.
Meantime, as of March 31, 2022, US corn 3YC (Gulf) was at $351/mt (down $9/mt from last week).
US soybean 2Y (Gulf) quoted at $653/mt (down $31/mt from last week).
As for wheat, US wheat No 2 Hard Red Winter (HRW) was valued at $459/mt (down $26/mt from last week).
US wheat No 2 Soft Red Winter (SRW) was at $421/mt (down $31/mt from last week).
The Northern Durum, meantime, continue to be offered from the Great Lakes for April/May 2022 at at $595/MT ($16.19/bu) (unchanged from prior week).
USDA’s National Ethanol report showed corn oil prices were slightly down this week as renged between 76.67 SD and 79.72 IO cents/lb.
That compares to 79.40 and 81.50 cents seen regionally last week.
DDGS FOB prices were also weaker, with NOLA quotes from $335 LW to $380 and PNW $10 lower to $360/ton.
Past week DDGS FOB export quotes were $370 – $400/ton in NOLA and $370 in the PNW.
Ethanol cash prices were between $2.22 MI to $2.41/gal EC.
Weaker compared to prior week when ranged between $2.31 MI_NB to $2.50/gal EC-WC.
Meanwhile gasoline futures ended the week at $3.1427, that was down from $3.3780/gal posted last week.
USDA’s weekly biofuels report showed B100 prices averaged $6.50, down from $6.57/gal past week’s.
USDA’s weekly Crush report showed the estimated processing value of soybeans was $19.36/bu on $15.89 cash beans.
That compared to $20.71/bu reported prior week on $17.10 beans.
Meantime, wheat basis this week was mixed in both the Gulf and Pacific Northwest (PNW).
Despite muted export sales, logistics continue to keep basis relatively higher.
The National Grain and Feed Association recently expressed concern about what it calls severe delays in rail service due to worker shortages and other operations.
In energy markets, oil settled lower on Friday as members of the International Energy Agency (IEA) agreed to join in the largest-ever U.S. oil reserves release, annunced by U.S. President Joe Biden on Thursday.
Both Brent and U.S. crude benchmarks settled down around 13% this week.
That is their biggest weekly falls in two years.
Thus, Brent crude futures were down 32 cents, or 0.3%, at $104.39 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures fell $1.01, or 1%, at $99.27.
Biden announced a release of 1 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil for six months from May, which at 180 million barrels is the largest release ever from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve.
Member countries of the International Energy Agency did not agree Friday on volumes or the commitments of each country.
Additional details could be known within next week or so.
However, the release of oil inventories is not a persistent source of supply, and if stranded Russian barrels average more than 1 million bpd next year, this will leave 2023 in a deep deficit.
OPEC+, on Thursday stuck with plans for an increase of 432,000 bpd to their May output target despite Western pressure to add more.
U.S. energy firms last week added oil and natural gas rigs for a second week in a row, though growth in the rig count remains slow.
On thi wake, JPMorgan said in a note it had kept its price forecasts unchanged at $114 a barrel for the second quarter and $101 a barrel in the second half of this year.
In the freight markets, the Baltic Exchange’s dry bulk sea freight index registered a third consecutive weekly decline on Friday, pulled down by falling rates for panamax and supramax vessels.
The overall index, which factors in rates for capesize, panamax and supramax shipping vessels, indeed, fell by one point to 2,357 points, its lowest since March 8.
The index fell 7.4% over the week.
The panamax index dipped 68 points, or 2.2%, to 3,073 points for its lowest level since March 21, down almost 10% on the week.
Average daily earnings for panamaxes, which usually carry coal or grain cargoes of about 60,000 to 70,000 tonnes, lost $613 to $27,660.
The capesize index gained 104 points, or 5.9%, to 1,864 but was down 1.2% for the week.
Average daily earnings for capesizes, which typically transport 150,000 tonne cargoes such as iron ore and coal, increased $867 to $15,460.
The supramax index dropped 53 points to 2,755 points, down 8.8% for the week.
On week 13, the upward trend in the Azov and Black Sea freight market continues.
Thus, the rate for a 3K parcel of wheat from Azov to Marmara Sea ports is $65 per ton on the average, Sea Lines shipbrokers report.
This week, the gap observed between the usual level of freight from the northern and southern ports of the Sea of Azov has increased even more.
Many shipowners insist on working cargoes only from the ports of Kavkaz, Temryuk or Novorossiysk.
In general, the trade in grain crops continues to be very active for different destinations.
In addition, taking into account the quotas for wheat and corn in force, there are more and more requests for shipment of bran, pulp, cake, flax and other subcultures.
And, for the time being, most market players do not see conditions for a sharp change in the regional freight market trend.
According to Sea Lines, on week 13, freight rates for wheat parcels from Azov made $63 to the Black Sea, $65 to Marmara, $80 to Mersin and $82 to Egypt.
Freight rates from Rostov AB (after bridge) are $1 above, from Rostov BB (before bridge) the same, from Yeisk and Taganrog $1 below, and from Temryuk $3 below those from the port of Azov.
In the Caspian, freight rates remain on the previous week’s level.
On week 13, freight rates for shipping corn by 3,000 dwt bulkers to Iran make $21 from Aktau, $25 from Makhachkala, and $30 from Astrakhan.
In equity markets, U.S. stock indexes Friday recovered from early losses and closed slightly higher.
Stocks eked out modest gains on optimism the U.S. economy is strong enough to weather interest rate hikes from the Fed after the U.S. unemployment rate in March fell more than expected to a 2-year low.
Particularly, the Mar unemployment rate fell -0.2 to a 2-year low of 3.6%, showing a stronger labor market than expectations of 3.7%.
U.S. Mar nonfarm payrolls rose +431,000, weaker than expectations of +490,000, although Feb payrolls were revised upward to +750,000 from the previously reported +678,000.
U.S. Mar average hourly earnings rose +5.6% y/y, stronger than expectations of +5.5% y/y and the biggest increase in 22 months.
U.S. Feb construction spending rose +0.5% m/m, weaker than expectations of +1.0% m/m.
Stocks, in contrast, early Friday were weighed down after U.S. manufacturing activity last month unexpectedly declined.
The U.S. Mar ISM manufacturing index, indeed, unexpectedly fell -1.5 to a 1-1/2 year low of 57.1, weaker than expectations of an increase to 59.0.
The Mar ISM prices paid sub-index rose +11.5 to a 9-month high of 87.1, stronger than expectations of 80.0.
Also, stocks Friday morning initially moved lower after signs of wage and prices pressures pushed T-note yields higher.
Such expectations drove shorter-term Treasury yields in particular, thus the two-year yield leaped to 2.45% from 2.28% late Thursday.
The two-year yield again rose above the 10-year yield, which was also climbing, but not as quickly.
The 10-year yield rose to 2.38% from 2.33%.
On Tuesday, the two-year yield briefly had topped the 10-year yield for the first time since 2019, a potentially ominous sign.
In this context, the S&P 500 rose 15.45 points or 0.3% to 4,545.86.
The Dow added 139.92 points or 0.4% to 34,818.27, while the Nasdaq rose 40.98 points or 0.3% to 14,261.50.
Small company stocks outgained the broader market, driving the Russell 2000 by 20.99 points or 1% higher to 2,091.11.
For the week, the Dow slipped 0.1%, the S&P edged up 0.1% and the Nasdaq advanced 0.7%.
The S&P 500 closed out the first quarter on Thursday with its biggest quarterly decline since the COVID-19 pandemic started.
Its loss since the beginning of the year is 4.9%.
In contrast, both the Dow Jones and Nasdaq Composite indexes notched gains for March, thanks largely to a market rally in the two weeks heading into this week.
In currencies trading, the dollar index on Friday rose by +0.267 (+0.27%) to 98.627.
However, for the week, the dollar index fell 0.2%.
The EUR/USD moved lower 0.0024 (-0.22%) to 1.1065 Friday on weaker-than-expected Eurozone economic data and inflation concerns.
The USD/JPY Friday moved moderately higher by +0.88 (+0.73%) to 122.54.
The jump in US T-note yields Friday weighed on the yen and pushed USD/JPY higher, while a slide in Japanese business confidence pressured the yen.
For the week, the EUR/USD was up 0.75%, while the USD/JPY was up 0.39%.
On the weather side, in the West, scattered snow showers are generally confined to the central Rockies and environs.
April 1 marks the unofficial end of the Western snow-accumulation season, with only a few basins—mainly in the central Rockies and across northwestern Montana—reporting near-average snowpack for the date.
Significantly below-average snow-water equivalencies are common from Oregon and California into the Great Basin, Intermountain West, and Southwest.
On the Plains, temperatures are quickly rebounding across Texas, where today’s high temperatures will exceed 80°F in western, central, and southern sections of the state.
Meanwhile, cool weather covers the northwestern half of the Plains.
Additionally, an atmospheric disturbance is producing some light precipitation, mainly in Nebraska and South Dakota.
In the Corn Belt, cool, mostly cloudy weather prevails in the wake of a departing storm system.
In addition, rain and snow showers linger across the eastern Corn Belt.
On March 27, prior to the most recent precipitation event, topsoil moisture ranged from one-quarter to one-half surplus in Michigan (50% surplus), Ohio (48%), Indiana (44%), and Illinois (31%).
In the South, cool, dry weather trails the passage of a cold front, which is currently crossing Florida’s peninsula.
Showers and thunderstorms continue across central and southern Florida.
Meanwhile, several brushfires have flared in recent days across southern Texas, where the Borrega Fire has scorched approximately 46,000 acres of vegetation west of Kingsville.
Through the weekend, several minor disturbances will result in widespread but generally light precipitation in several regions, including the Plains and Midwest.
By early next week, however, a complex storm system will become better organized across the western and central U.S.
Heavy precipitation may fall in the Pacific Northwest, while a low-pressure system will intensify across the nation’s mid-section.
By Tuesday, dry weather will return across the Northwest, while windy, unsettled conditions will engulf the northern Plains and upper Midwest, with accumulating snow possible.
Locally severe thunderstorms may sweep across the South.
Five-day precipitation totals could reach 1 to 3 inches or more across the South and Pacific Northwest, while mostly dry weather will persist from California to western and southern Texas.
The NWS 6- to 10-day outlook for April 6 – 10 calls for the likelihood of near- or below-normal temperatures in much of the central and eastern U.S., while warmer-than-normal weather will prevail in the West and scattered areas along the Atlantic Seaboard.
Meanwhile, near- or above-normal precipitation in the East and across the nation’s northern tier should contrast with drierthan-normal conditions in most areas from the Pacific Coast to the middle and lower Mississippi Valley.
On the supply side, the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) National Agricultural Statistics Service in its weekly crop report, on Monday rated 32% of the winter wheat in top producer Kansas in good-to-excellent condition, up from 25% a week earlier.
For Oklahoma, the USDA rated 18% of the winter wheat crop as good-to-excellent, down from 21% a week earlier.
For Texas, the No. 2 winter wheat state by planted area, the USDA rated 7% of the crop as good, up from 6% the previous week.
None of the Texas crop was rated excellent in either week.
For Colorado, the USDA rated 11% of the winter wheat in good condition, a drop from 19% a week earlier.
As in Texas, none of the Colorado wheat was rated excellent in either week.
For Montana, the USDA in a monthly report rated 11% of the wheat crop in good condition, down from 21% at the end of February.
None of the Montana wheat was rated excellent.
For Nebraska, the USDA in a monthly report rated 27% of the state’s wheat as good-to-excellent, down from 36% at the end of February.
For South Dakota, the USDA in a monthly report rated 26% of the state’s wheat as good-to-excellent, up from 24% at the end of February.
In Illinois, where farmers grow soft red winter wheat used to make cookies and snack foods, the USDA in a monthly report rated 59% of the crop as good-to-excellent, steady with the end of February.
In North Carolina, another soft wheat producer, the USDA in a monthly report rated 80% of the state’s wheat as good-to-excellent, up from 74% in late February.
The USDA rated 76% of the Louisiana winter wheat crop, 67% of Mississippi’s wheat and 72% of Arkansas’ wheat as good-to-excellent.
Meantime, the Texas corn crop was 51% planted, ahead of the state’s five-year average of 46%.
Milo was 32% planted in Texas.
Corn planting was 51% complete in Louisiana, 5% complete in Mississippi and 2% complete in Arkansas.
Corn planting began also in Kansas, with 1% of expected area planted as of 3/27.
On the demand side, weekly export sales data indicated corn sales slowing another 35% to 636,900 MT.
New crop sales were tallied at 286,800 MT, better than last week.
US old crop corn export commitments (shipped plus outstanding sales) are now at 53.654 MMT, 18% below last year at this time.
They are now 84% of the full year WASDE forecast, slightly behind the average pace of 86%.
Accumulated exports are 51% of the updated WASDE full year projection, now 2% above normal.
As for soybean report indicated a robust level of buying in the week ending 3/24, with old crop sales at 1.31 MMT.
Soybean bookings for the new crop were at 54,000 MT.
US soybean exporters have either sold or shipped 55.342 MMT of the 21/22 crop, now just 9% smaller than last year’s record buying pace.
Total export commitments are 97% of the USDA full year estimate, outpacing the 92% average for this date.
Shipments are 77% of that projection, 1% better than the average pace.
As for wheat, the weekly Export Sales report showed old crop wheat sales slowing again to 95,000 MT for the week ending 3/24.
New crop sales were slightly below the previous week, at 349,200 MT.
Old crop wheat export commitments are now 19.258 MMT.
That is just 88% of USDA’s full year forecast, lagging the average pace of 100% by now.
Shipments to date are still 21% smaller than a year ago, at 15.696 MMT.
That is 72% of the USDA projection vs the average of 78% by now.
Meantime, private exporters on Friday reported to the USDA other sales of 136,000 metric tons of corn for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2021/2022 marketing year.
In this context, the weekly Commitment of Traders report showed managed money spec funds were net long 354,604 contracts as of 3/29.
That was down 29,497 contracts week/week.
Commercial corn traders also lifted hedges going in, reducing their net short 42,818 contracts on a 46,254 contract lighter OI.
As for soybean, CFTC’s weekly Commitment of Traders report indicated spec traders in soybean futures and options pared 17,919 contracts from their net long in a week.
That took the net position to long 156,273 contracts.
The record large fund long is 253,889 contracts, set in 2012
Commercial soybean traders reduced their net short by 21k contracts as short hedges were lifted and longs were added.
In meal, the weekly CoT report showed a 1,216 contract reduced net long position from the funds.
That left the group 99,948 contracts net long.
Soybean oil spec traders were 5,477 contracts less net long to 78,601 as of 3/29.
As for wheat, Friday’s CFTC Commitment of Traders report showed spec funds in CBT wheat futures and options net long 19,439 contracts as of March 29, down a net 72 contracts from the previous week.
For KC wheat, they trimmed 479 longs from their net long position in the week ending Tuesday, taking it to 45,310 contracts.
Managed money firms were reported as 217 contracts less net long in spring wheat through the week ending 3/29.
From Canada, as of March 28, 2022, Canadian wheat prices for FOB delivery West Coast were (Cdn$/mt):
– for the N1 class CWRS 13.5% – $539.40 per tonne, down C$14.56/t from prior week;
– for the N2 class CWRS 13.0% – $532.03/t, down C$14.98 wow;
– for the N3 CWRS – $546.78/t, down C$28.03 from prior week.
As of March 28, 2022, for the N1 CWAD 13% (durum wheat first class) deferred average prices for delivery in April-May ’22 were at C$551.16 unchanged week on week.
Meanwhile, export basis West Coast & Central SK decrease from C$ 198.73 to 195.25 per tonne, as delivered FOB price Great Lakes was posted at C$ 746.4, down C$3.48 from prior week.
Meanwhile, as of March 30, 2022, the durum wheat (CWAD) FOB price for delivery in St. Lawrence, was at C$744.88 per tonne.
As of April 1, 2022, for the N1 CWAD 13% (durum wheat first class), average street prices in REGIONAL ZONES were at C$577.5 per tonne, up C$5.08 from prior week.
(1USD=Cnd$1.2519 up from past week when was 1.2477).
From South America, as of March 31, 2022 – Argentina Wheat Grade 2 export price, (Up River) was at $396 down $5/t from prior week.
Argentina corn feed was down $16/t for the week, closing at $313.
Brazilian corn feed (Paranagua) was valued at $356, down $7 from prior week.
Argentina feed barley, was unchanged to $375.
Argentina soybean was down $40 at $639.
Brazilian soybean fell $41 finishing the week at $646.
In Europe, cereal crops in France, remained mostly in good shape last week, farm office FranceAgriMer said on Friday, as traders monitored a wintry start to April for any damage to fields.
For soft wheat, 92% of crops were rated good or excellent in the week to March 28, stable compared with the previous week and the highest score for the period in at least five years.
Winter barley and durum wheat, sown in autumn like soft wheat, also remained at a five-year high for crop ratings, with good/excellent scores of 88% and 87% respectively, it said.
In a first rating for recently sown spring barley, the office estimated 92% of crops were in good or excellent condition.
However, attention has turned to a cold spell which will bring widespread frosts until Monday, though temperature forecasts and the development stage of plants suggested limited risks for cereals, crop institute Arvalis said.
Grain markets in Europe are also monitoring upcoming spring planting to see if farmers’ plans would be altered by tensions in fertiliser supply and calls to raise production to compensate for war-hit exports from Ukraine.
Sunflower seed could attract extra plantings as it uses less fertiliser than corn.
Thus, France’s sunflower seed area may reach 750,000-780,000 hectares this spring, compared with about 700,000 initially expected, Afsaneh Lellahi of oilseed crop institute Terres Inovia said.
However, according to Claude Tabel, head of seed industry group UFS, a big shift in planting trends was not expected as French farmers generally follow rotation patterns, while the EU’s decision to allow fallow land to be cultivated this year came late for growers to change plans.
In this context, May wheat price on Euronext was down 16 euros per tonne from prior week, to close at 365.25 euros.
June corn price was 23.25 euros lower for the week, closing at 315.5 euros per ton.
Rapeseed May 2022 contract fell by €22.5/t from prior week, to close €946.75/t.
May-22 UK feed wheat futures, eased £15.6 from prior week, closing at £300.4/t.
Meantime, as of March 31, 2022, FOB prices in US dollar for French wheat with 11.5% protein and April delivery, were at $427/mt, down $14 from prior week.
French durum wheat, FOB Port la Nouvelle continued to be not quote.
French durum wheat – basis La Pallice, was at $497.93/mt, up $47.09 from prior week.
Spanish durum wheat Sevilla (DepSilo), NA.
Italian durum wheat Bologna (Delivered to first customer), was valued this week at $578.7 per tonne up $14.6 from past week.
German wheat (Depsilo) with 12.5 pro was at $464.73 per tonne.
Baltic wheat (Delivery First) was at $378.42/t.
Corn, delivered Bordeaux port was at $381.74 per tonne, down $5.32/t from past week.
Feed barley FOB Rouen was at 420$/t, down $16 per tonne.
Malting barley FOB Creil Spot – July 2021 basis was at $459.2 per tonne, down $2.63/t from prior week.
Rapessed FOB Moselle – 2021 harvest was at 1067.77$/ton, down $23.03 compared to prior week.
Standard sunseed FOB Bordeaux – 2021 harvest was down 15.6$ from prior week at $1095 per tonne.
(Eur/USD = 1.1041 vs last week 1.0996).
From the Black Sea basin, Russia kept its wheat exports steady via its Black Sea ports last week.
According to Sovecon, Russia exported 400,000 tonnes of grains last week, compared with 520,000 tonnes a week earlier.
Sovecon estimates that the country will still export 2.2 MMT of wheat in March, despite the ongoing geopolitical turmoil in the Black Sea region.
Export flow continues as a combination of old and newly signed contracts according to IKAR.
Azov Sea routes remain restricted, while domestic prices for the grain continued to rally.
Western sanctions imposed on Russia, have complicated trade logistics and transactions in foreign banks for many Russian firms in the last four weeks.
Buyers do not want to buy at FOB basis, that carry delivery risk.
Thus, traders mainly sell, Russian wheat, C&F basis, according to Sovecon.
In the domestic market, prices for wheat in roubles continued to rally to reflect earlier depreciation of the Russian currency against the dollar, Sovecon said.
According to IKAR and SovEcon, as of March 28, Russian wheat export prices for wheat with 12.5% protein content, from the BlackSea ports were being assessed at around $390 per tonne free on board (FOB).
Domestic 3rd class wheat, European part of Russia, excludes delivery, was valued at 17,850 ($182.19) +1,700 rbls roubles/t (Sovecon);
Price for sunflower seeds was at 48,900 rbls/t +9,775 rbls (Sovecon);
Domestic sunflower oil was valued at 133,350 rbls/t +35,000 rbls (Sovecon);
Soybeans was at 55,300 rbls/t +8,300 rbls (Sovecon);
White sugar, Russia’s south, was at $812.1/t +$67.8 (IKAR).
According to regional agribusiness management bodies, as of March 23, 2022, the average Russian prices for the 3-class wheat were 15.824 rubles/ton (+2,5% within a week).
Price for the 4-class wheat, was 14.960 rubles/ton (+1.1% within a week).
For the 5-class wheat price was at 14.470 rubles/ton (+2,2% within a week).
For feed barley was at 14.096 rubles/ton (+1,7% within a week).
For corn, price was at 13.895 rubles/ton (+0,5% within a week).
As of March 24, 2022 export prices FOB Novorossiysk, were for the Russian 4-class wheat (protein 12,5%) at 420 USD/ton (-20 USD/ton within 2 weeks).
For barley was at 425 USD/ton (no change).
Corn export price was at 350 USD/ton (+20 USD/ton within 1 week).
Meantime, the Russian Ag. Min has amended the export tax for wheat, barley and corn for the week of April 6-12, 2022.
Particularly, the export duty will be $96.1 on wheat, $75.4 on barley and $65.8 on corn.
Indicative prices will be $337.3 for wheat, $292.8 for barley and $279 for corn.
That is compared, with prior week (March 30 – April 5) when the tax was $87 for wheat, $75.6 for barley and $58.3 for corn, while indicative price were $324.3 for wheat, $293.1 for barley and $268.3 for corn.
The rouble strengthened in Moscow trade during this week, heading back towards a near four-week high against the dollar.
Meantime, Russia’s southern regions have started spring grains sowing amid favourable weather.
As of March 18, spring grains were planted on 222,000 hectares compared with 178,000 hectares on the same date a year ago, Sovecon said.
Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Thursday that he had signed a decree saying foreign buyers must pay in roubles for Russian gas from April 1, and contracts would be halted if these payments were not made.
“In order to purchase Russian natural gas, they must open rouble accounts in Russian banks. It is from these accounts that payments will be made for gas delivered starting from tomorrow,” Putin said.
“If such payments are not made, we will consider this a default on the part of buyers, with all the ensuing consequences. Nobody sells us anything for free, and we are not going to do charity either – that is, existing contracts will be stopped.”
Russia will ban exports of sunflower seeds from Friday until the end of August and impose an export quota on sunflower oil to avoid shortages and ease pressure on domestic prices, its agriculture ministry said on Thursday.
Particularly, seed exports will be banned from April 1 to Aug. 31 and an export quota of 1.5 million tonnes will be imposed on sunflower oil from April 15 to Aug. 31, the ministry said.
There will also be a 700,000-tonne export quota for sunflower meal, it added.
The government of Russia has imposed duties on export of sunflower meal and flaxseed from Russia outside the EAEU for the period from May 1 until August 31, 2022.
Flaxseed export duty is set at 20%, but not less than 100 USD/t.
The duty on export of sunflower meal will fluctuate and calculated via a certain formula as a difference between an indicative price (monthly average market price) and a base price (185 USD/t) multiplied by the value of the adjusting factor (0.7).
One more decision provides for limiting the number of checkpoints through which the export of soybean is possible.
For the period from April 1 until August 31, soybean export by road, rail and water transport is possible only through checkpoints in the Far Eastern Federal District.
For soybean meal, the export is possible via the sea checkpoint in the Kaliningrad oblast and checkpoints in the Far Eastern Federal District.
Meantime, Dmitry Medvedev warned on Friday that Russia, could limit supplies of agriculture products to “friendly” countries only.
The priority in food supply is Russia’s domestic market and price control within it, Medvedev said.
Meantime, Russian crude sunflower oil was offered at a record price of $2,150 a tonne, including cost, insurance and freight (CIF), in India for April shipments, compared with $1,767 for soyoil and $1720 for crude palm oil.
($1 = 83.9500 roubles)
In Ukraine, according to APK-Inform, the prices of corn have decreased significantly in Ukraine since the start of the war.
The downward trend is based on the surplus of corn supply amidst low demand from traders, as the export through ports is blocked.
Also, the Ukrainian grain is vulnerable for fungus diseases that reduces its storing period to 2 months.
Therefore, many farmers are trying to sell their corn as soon as possible and are ready to reduce their offer prices.
Since the end of February, indeed, the bid prices of processors have decreased by average 200-700 UAH/t, and by 900 UAH/t in southern region.
As of March 28, the bid prices are set at 7300-8000 UAH/t CPT.
Last week, also the indicative offer prices of Ukrainian wheat started declining on the export market.
The prices were pressured by virtually absent trade, large stocks and good condition of winter grain in Ukraine as well as starting of spring planting campaign.
Thus, last week, the indicative offer prices of 12.5%, 11.5% and feed wheat decreased by 20-25 USD/t to 415-435, 405-425 and 390-410 USD/t FOB Black Sea (April).
The offer prices of new-crop wheat declined by 10-30 USD/t to 360-390, 350-385 and 330-365 USD/t (July-August).
In contrast, indicative export prices of new-crop barley increased.
The prices were supported by expected reduction of planted area under spring grain as well as harvested area under winter grain.
Indeed, last week, the indicative offer prices of feed barley increased be average 5 USD/t to 375-405 USD/t FOB Black Sea (July-August).
This week, the bid prices for Ukrainian crude sunflower oil have decreased.
The bid prices decreased by 110 USD/t to 1900-2000 USD/t FOB (April-May) as of the morning of April 1.
The prices are still 29-33% higher compared to the level before the war.
However, there were no new contracts signed, and the prices are indicative.
In Australia, an unprecedented tightness in road freight, big export orders and domestic consumers’ coverage ahead of a run of public holidays have seen markets for wheat and barley ratchet higher in the past week.
Rain and localised flooding in pockets of southern Queensland and northern New South Wales are adding to the difficulty of booking trucks and picking up and delivering grain on time, and delays in shipping have further exacerbated the supply chain disconnect.
In its latest Australian Export Vessel Lineups report released yesterday, Lachstock Consulting said vessel waiting times have jumped dramatically, as COVID cases proliferate, and rain and flooding impacts operations to ports including Brisbane, Newcastle and Port Kembla.
In this context, indicative delivered prices in Australian dollars per tonne were:
Barley Downs: $358 up $8 from March 24;
SFW wheat Downs: $390, up $18 from March 24;
Sorghum Downs: $335, down $20 from March 24;
Barley Melbourne: $390, up $10 from March 24;
ASW wheat Melbourne: $408 up $8 from March 24.
SFW wheat Melbourne: $400 up $3 from March 24.
(AUD/USD=> US$0.7480).
On the international trade scene, Turkish grain board TMO booked about 100,000 tonnes of corn in an international tender for imported supplies on Monday, scaling back an initial volume of 300,000 tonnes.
The tender sought about 325,000 tonnes for shipment from optional origins to a series of Turkish ports between April 8 and May 5.
TMO had provisionally purchased 300,000 tonnes but later gave final approval for 100,000 tonnes, comprising one 50,000 tonne consignment for Mersin port at a price of $400.87 a tonne, cost and freight (c&f) included, and another 50,000 tonnes for Iskenderun at $407.87 a tonne c&f.
The Taiwan Flour Millers’ Association purchased an estimated 40,000 tonnes of milling wheat to be sourced from the United States in a tender which closed on Wednesday.
The wheat was bought in one consignment comprising various wheat types for shipment from the U.S. Pacific Northwest coast between May 14 and May 28.
The purchase involved U.S. dark northern spring wheat of 14.5% protein content bought at $439.82 a tonne FOB U.S. Pacific Northwest coast.
Hard red winter wheat of 12.5% protein was bought at $462.94 a tonne FOB and soft white wheat of 10.5% protein was bought at $415.47 a tonne FOB.
The purchase has an additional freight charge of $74.14 per tonne for ocean shipping from the U.S. Pacific Northwest coast to Taiwan.
The seller of all the wheat was said to be trading house CHS.
Saudi Arabia’s state grains buyer SAGO is seeking 355,000 tonnes of wheat in an import tender for delivery September-November 2022.
The tender sought six cargoes of hard wheat with 12.5% protein.
One 60,000 tonne consignment was sought for Jeddah port, three 60,000 tonne consignments for Yanbu, one 60,000 tonne cargo for Dammam and one 55,000 tonne consignment for Jizan.
In its previous wheat import tender in December, SAGO bought 689,000 tonnes for arrival in July.
The lowest price offered in the international tender from Tunisia’s state grains agency on Wednesday to purchase about 150,000 tonnes of soft wheat was believed to be $418.68 a tonne c&f, according to initial assessments from European traders.
ODC Tunisia purchased as following:
POST 1 25000 MT from Casillo at 438.68 USD/MT;
POST 2 25000 MT from Casillo at 443.89 USD/MT;
POST 3 25000 MT from Promizing at 455.75 USD/MT;
POST 4 25000 MT from Casillo at 442.68 USD/MT;
POST 5 25000 MT not bought;
POST 6 25000 MT from Casillo at 418.68 USD/MT.
In a separate tender by Tunisia seeking about 100,000 tonnes of animal feed barley, the lowest offer was said to be $442.68 a tonne c&f.
The purchases were:
POST 1 Viterra 25000 MT at 454.96 USD/MT;
POST 2 Viterra 25000 MT at 456.48 USD/MT;
POST 3 Viterra 25000 MT at 457.96 USD/MT;
POST 4 Casillo 25000 MT at 442.68 USD/MT.
Algeria’s state grains agency OAIC is believed to have purchased about 600,000 tonnes of optional-origin milling wheat in an international tender on Wednesday.
The price paid for the wheat was estimated at about $448 a tonne c&f, they said.
In first assessments late on Wednesday, was reported an initial volume of about 120,000 tonnes, also at $448 a tonne c&f.
Some traders said the volume bought may have been slightly below 600,000 tonnes at about 570,000 tonnes.
The tender sought shipment in two periods from main supply regions including Europe over June 1-15 and June 16-30.
If sourced from South America or Australia, shipment is one month earlier.
The price level in the tender was seen as relatively low and suggested that Romanian and Bulgarian supplies could be used for at least part of the order, but French wheat could also be used.
Turkey’s state grain board TMO has provisionally purchased about 18,000 tonnes of crude sunflower oil in an international tender, in line with volumes sought.
Lowest prices in the purchase were said to be $1,896.90 a tonne including cost and freight (c&f) for a 6,000 tonne consignment.
Watching next week’s market, the week starts out with Monday being first notice day for April live cattle.
Export inspections data will be released in the morning, with the first NASS Crop Progress report of 2022 on Monday afternoon.
Census will be out on Tuesday with official export trade data for February.
EIA will publish their weekly production and stocks report for ethanol on Wednesday.
Export Sales data will be released on Thursday morning. Friday rounds out the week with the monthly Crop Production and WASDE reports from USDA.
