US farm markets posted some of their largest weekly gains ever this week.
Chicago Board of Trade wheat futures, indeed, ended with record weekly gains, up near 41% on Friday and setting new all-time highs at $13.48 a bushel at the end week session.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine choked shipments from the region that supplies nearly a third of global wheat exports.
That means decreasing food availability and unaffordable grocery prices for millions of people around the world.
Meantime, we can expect to see even higher grocery store bills soon, as elevated commodity prices, send the fallout from Ukraine’s humanitarian crisis rippling across the world in the coming weeks.
However, once again, our thoughts go first of all to the civilian population of those places, which most of all are paying the price of this war.
Thus, we hope that this conflict can immediately cease.
Let’s move on to our usual “Grain & Prices Weekly Report”.
May corn prices busted up this week, posting a 98.5 cent/bu rally or by 15.02%.
Soybeans May contract, posted a 76 cent gain or by 4.8% this week.
Soybean meal was up $17.70/ton or by 4%.
Soybean oil, rallied 387 poits or by 5.61% for the week.
Wheat prices had a historical week full of expanded limits with Chicago as the leader, rallying $3.49 ½ or by 40.62%.
KC was not too far behind, with a $3.23 ½ jump or 36.31%.
MPLS tagged along for the ride, posting “only” a $1.86 ¾ gain or 19.45%.
Going inside the numbers, CBOT corn futures were up 98.5 cents/bu for the week to close at $7.54/bu.
CBOT soybean futures were up 76 cents, closing at $16.61/bu.
Soymeal rose by $17,7/smt at $460.40 smt.
Soy oil soared by $3.87 cents at $72.80.
March CBOT soft red winter (SRW) futures were up 59 cents to close at $13.48/bu.
The May contract was up $3.493 to close at $12.09/bu.
March KCBT hard red winter (HRW) futures were up 60 cents to end at $12.00/bu.
The May contract was up $3.235 to close at $12.15/bu.
March MGE hard red spring (HRS) futures fell 10 cents to close at $11.24/bu.
However, the May contract was up $1.580 to close at $11.18/bu.
Meantime, as of March 3, 2022, US corn 3YC (Gulf) was at $353/mt (up $36/mt from last week).
US soybean 2Y (Gulf) quoted at $664/mt (up $8/mt from last week).
USDA’s National Ethanol report showed corn oil prices were another 512 points higher to between 77.50 and 80.50 cents/lb.
That compares to 72.75 to 75 cents seen regionally last week.
DDGS FOB prices were also higher, with NOLA quotes from $300 LW to $315 and PNW $10 higher to $320/ton.
Past week DDGS FOB export quotes were $285 – $297/ton in NOLA and $310 in the PNW.
Ethanol cash prices were between $2.33 NB to $2.49WI/gal IO.
Stronger compared to prior week when ranged between $2.13 MI to $2.25/gal IO.
Meanwhile gasoline futures ended the week at $3.4257, that was up from $2.7519/gal posted last week.
USDA’s weekly biofuels report showed B100 prices averaged $6.45/gal.
That was well above last week’s $6.00/gal average price.
USDA’s weekly Crush report showed the estimated processing value of soybeans was $19.60/bu on $16.56 cash beans.
That compared to $19.56/bu reported prior week on $15.95 beans.
As for wheat, US wheat No 2 Hard Red Winter (HRW) was valued at $505/mt (up $68/mt from last week).
US wheat No 2 Soft Red Winter (SRW) was at $472/mt (up $77/mt from last week).
Northern Durum offers from the Great Lakes for April/May 2022 was valued at at $595/MT ($16.19/bu) (unchanged from prior week).
Meantime, wheat basis this week was up in the Gulf for all classes and mixed in the Pacific Northwest (PNW).
Wheat traders said that market volatility was creating poor definition in the cash market.
In the PNW HRS and HRW basis were down, while soft white prices were up.
Uncertainty is affecting wheat demand while higher input costs have strengthened basis.
In energy market, oil surged on Friday, ending the week at multi-year highs.
Traders were barely able to sell Russian oil all week, with Shell PLC on Friday the only notable buyer of a Russian cargo, which was sold at a steep $28-discount to physical Brent crude.
Indirect talks between Iran and the United States on reviving the 2015 Iran nuclear deal were close to reaching an agreement, the chief British envoy said on Friday as she and her French and German colleagues flew home to brief ministers.
However, aAnalysts said such an agreement could add only another 1 million barrels of daily supply to the market, which would not be enough to offset declining supply from Russia.
In this context, crude prices posted their largest weekly gains since the middle of 2020, with the Brent benchmark up 21% and U.S. crude gaining 26%.
On Friday, indeed, Brent futures rose $7.65, or 6.9%, to settle at $118.11 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose $8.01, or 7.4%, to end at $115.68.
That was the highest close for Brent since February 2013 and for WTI since September 2008.
During the week, Brent rose to its highest intraday since May 2012 and WTI its highest since September 2008.
Consequentially, more oil supplies are set to be added from a coordinated release of just over 60 million barrels of oil reserves by developed nations, agreed this week.
Meantime, Japan said on Friday that it plans to release 7.5 million barrels of oil.
On the freight market, the Baltic Exchange’s dry bulk sea freight index rose on Friday on gains in the panamax and supramax vessel rates that also countered a small dip in the capesize segment.
The overall index, which factors in rates for capesize, panamax, supramax and handysize shipping vessels, indeed, rose 44 points to 2,148 points.
The index rose for a second straight week, gaining 3.5%.
Particularly, the capesize index dropped 4 points to 1,635 points and fell about 3.3% this week.
Average daily earnings for capesizes, which typically transport 150,000-tonne cargoes such as iron ore and coal, decreased $36 to $13,560.
The panamax index was up 86 points, at 2,785 points and posted for the week 127 points gains or by 4.78%.
Average daily earnings for panamaxes, which usually carry coal or grain cargoes of about 60,000 to 70,000 tonnes, increased $768 to $25,061.
Among smaller vessels, the supramax index rose 66 points to 2,586 points and went home with 169 points gains or by 6.99% for the week.
In equities markets, after Russia has been accused of nuclear terrorism, as its troops shelled the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant in Ukraine, Europe’s largest atomic generator, on Friday MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares ex-Japan tumbled as much as 1.5% to 585.6, the lowest level since November 2020, taking the year-to-date losses to 7%.
MSCI’s gauge of stocks across the globe closed down 1.65%.
Stock markets across Asia were in a sea of red, with Japan losing 2.2%, South Korea 1.1%, China 0.9% and Hong Kong 2.5%, while commodities-heavy Australia was down 0.6%
Russia said it will keep its stock market closed until at least March 9.
That would be the longest the Russian stock market has ever been closed.
The ruble on Friday fell to a new record low and closed near 1.2291 rubles/USD.
European stocks sank to near one-year lows, with the pan-regional STOXX 600 index sliding 3.56% to increase losses for the week to 7% – its worst weekly decline since the depths of a pandemic-fueled sell-off in March 2020.
The euro tumbled below $1.10 for the first time in almost two years and hit a fresh seven-year low against the safe-haven Swiss franc.
Particularly, the euro fell 1.17% to $1.0934.
European bond yields fell along with the euro as investors worried that higher commodity prices will dent growth in the European Union.
Meantime, Friday’s plunge of -4.96% in the Euro Stoxx 50 to a 13-month low undercut also U.S. stock indexes, with the Nasdaq 100 falling to a 1-week low.
Particularly, on Wall Street, in the end week session, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.53%, the S&P 500 lost 0.79% and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 1.66%.
For the week, the Dow Jones fell 1.30% to close at 36.614,80,
the S&P 500 lost 1.27% to close at 4.328,87, the Nasdaq Composite
closed at 13.313,44, dropping by 2.78%.
The dollar index on Friday gained 0.878 points (+0.90%) to close at 98.671.
For the week, gained 2.052 points or 2.12%.
U.S. stock indexes saw some support after Feb nonfarm payrolls rose more than expected, and the U.S. unemployment rate fell to a 2-year low.
Particularly, U.S. Feb nonfarm payrolls rose +678,000, showing a stronger labor market than expectations of +423,000.
Also, the Feb unemployment rate fell -0.2 to a 2-year low of 3.8%, showing a stronger labor market than expectations of 3.9%.
U.S. Feb avg hourly earnings were unchanged m/m and up +5.1% y/y, weaker than expectations of +0.5% m/m and +5.8% y/y.
Also, Chicago Fed President Evans said Friday that the Fed needs to be moving toward a more neutral policy and a 25 bp rate hike at each of the FOMC’s 2022 meetings gets policy close to neutral.
If it were not for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the Federal Reserve would likely raise interest rates by 50 basis points.
On the weather side, the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest will see cooler temperatures after spring-like conditions this week, according to NOAA’s short-range forecasts.
Mostly clear skies are forecast across the Midwest, but a winter storm system in the Rocky Mountains will push a snow-ice-rain mix across the Upper Plains and Midwest this weekend.
For growers west of the Mississippi River, the ongoing drought is hardly a novel concept in 2022.
But as planting progress gears up to move full steam ahead in the coming weeks, there are significant considerations growers need to keep in mind as the planters continue to roll.
As of last Tuesday, 91% of land in the High Plains was classified in abnormally dry to extreme drought condition.
Drought also gripped the Midwest, with over 45% of acreage in abnormally dry to severe drought ratings.
These conditions could delay or stunt corn and soybean planting progress across the U.S. Heartland.
At just shy of 1 million acres, prevent plant acreages for both crops tallied the lowest volume in 2021 since 2012, when another historic drought gripped the nation.
USDA projects 2022 acreage estimates assuming normal weather conditions but based on the dry weather patterns this winter it’s likely that 2022 weather will shape up to be anything but normal.
Warm and dry weather is likely to persist in the South and Southwest over the next month, according to NOAA’s latest 30-day weather forecast issued earlier this week.
Meanwhile, the Eastern Corn Belt is likely to enjoy above average precipitation chances that will likely help improve soil conditions leading up to planting activities by late March and early April.
The best chances the Plains and Upper Midwest will see for drought relief leading into planting season will likely be over the next two weeks, according to NOAA’s most recent 6- to 10-day and 8- to 14-day outlooks.
Grain markets will likely resume price responsiveness to weather forecasts in the coming weeks, especially if planting activities are delayed.
Moisture is growing increasingly critical to starting these crops off on a high note, but in its absence, growers can take solace in growing price prospects.
Meantime, the National Agriculture Statistics Service (NASS) released state-based Field Crops Report this week.
In Texas, the report rated winter wheat conditions as 8% good, 38% fair to poor, and 54% very poor.
Statewide, topsoil moisture was rated 49% very short and subsoil moisture rated 48% very short.
In Oklahoma, conditions were 11% good to excellent while 48% was rated fair to poor and another 41% very poor.
Topsoil in Oklahoma is 45% very short compared to 3% last year, but 9 points better than last week.
Subsoil moisture is 47% very short.
In Kansas, winter wheat conditions are rated 25% good to excellent, 37% fair, and 38% poor to very poor.
In Colorado winter wheat is 21% good to excellent and 62% fair to poor.
In Montana, winter wheat is rated 21% good, 21% fair, 35% poor and 23% very poor.
On the demand side, Weekly EIA data showed ethanol producers cutting back 27,000 barrels per day on production to 997,000 bpd as of 2/25.
Stocks were a sharp 574,000 barrels lower to 24.993 million.
Weekly FAS export sales data showed 485,118 MT of old crop corn was sold during the week that ended 2/24.
That was a 7-week low and below the range of expectations.
Corn export shipments fell 18% lower week-over-week but stayed 7% above the prior four-week average.
Shipments, indeed, were +1 MMT for the 8th consecutive week with the 1.55 MMT shipped bringing the season’s total to 25.77 MMT.
That still trails last season’s pace by 2.5%.
New crop business came in at 223k MT, which was in line with estimates.
USDA had 1.9 MMT on the books for 22/23 as of 2/24.
As for sorghum, the weekly report showed 101,994 MT were sold for 21/22 delivery, with no new crop business.
China is still the main buyer.
Accumulated milo commitments sat at 6.667 MMT as of 2/24.
As for soybean, data showed soybean bookings were 857,029 MT for old crop and 1.386 MMT for new crop.
For the old crop sales, that was inline with expectations, while new crop was above the range of estimates.
USDA also reported 750,961 MT of shipments.
That was down 40% from last week at a 23-week low.
Accumulated shipments reached 40.776 MMT as of 2/24.
For the products, USDA also reported 95,351 MT of soymeal was booked during the week that ended 2/24.
That was just below the expected range.
The week’s soymeal exports were a 25-week low of 143,005 MT.
For soybean oil, FAS data showed 6,588 MT were booked and 13,657 MT was shipped.
That left the season’s BO commitments at 565,098 MT as of 2/24.
As for wheat, data had 299,967 MT of wheat, sold during the week that ended 2/24.
That was down 42% from the week prior, but was up 36% from the same week last year.
New crop wheat sales came in at 69.8k MT.
USDA reported 364,776 MT were exported during the same week, which was a 6-week low and down 11% from the same week last year and 15% below the prior four-week average
Accumulated wheat shipments reached 14.15 MMT as of 2/24, with 18.28 MMT of total commitments.
Meantime, on Friday, private exporters reported to the USDA sold 106,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2021/2022 marketing year.
Also, a sale of 108,860 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to Mexico during the 2021/2022 marketing year.
And sales of 125,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2021/2022 marketing year.
Meantime, the weekly Commitment of Traders report tallied specs in corn futures and options at a net long 349,222 contracts as of 3/1.
That was a drop of 5,214 contracts from the week prior.
As for soybean data showed managed money firms were closing positions through the week that ended 3/1.
That left the group 4,613 contracts less net long at 175,721.
Soybean commercial hedgers also closed out 51,019 contracts (7% of OI), reducing their net short by 9.8k contracts to 305k.
For products, report showed managed money activity was more bullish for soymeal through the week that ended 3/1.
Funds closed 2.8k shorts and opened 1.6k new longs for a 94,829 contract net long.
In soy oil, managed money was 2,231 contracts more net long on short covering to 81,431 contracts as of 3/1.
As for wheat, Friday’s CFTC Commitment of Traders report showed spec funds in CBT wheat futures and options slashing 11,017 contracts from their net short position during the week of March 1.
That took the net short to 7,036 contracts.
In KC wheat, they added another 4,701 contracts to their net long position as of Tuesday to 45,481 contracts.
In Canada, as of February 28, 2022, Canadian wheat prices for FOB delivery West Coast were (Cdn$/mt):
– for the N1 class CWRS 13.5% – $521.58 per tonne, up C$5.87/t from prior week;
– for the N2 class CWRS 13.0% – $514.59/t, up C$11.52 wow;
– for the N3 CWRS – $543.49/t, up C$39.02 from prior week.
As of February 28, 2022, for the N1 CWAD 13% (durum wheat first class) deferred average prices for delivery in April-May ’22 were at C$551.16 unchanged week on week.
Meanwhile, export basis West Coast & Central SK eased from C$ 207.19 to 203.48 per tonne, as delivered FOB price Great Lakes was posted at C$ 754.64, down C$3.71 from prior week.
Meanwhile, as of March 2, 2022, durum wheat (CWAD) FOB price delivered in St. Lawrence, was valued at C$811.52 per tonne, down C$8.32 from prior week.
As of March 4, 2022, for the N1 CWAD 13% (durum wheat first class), average street prices in REGIONAL ZONES were at C$572.83 per tonne, up C$2.22 from prior week.
(1USD=Cnd$1.2680).
In South America, as of March 3, 2022 – Argentina Wheat Grade 2 export price, (Up River) was at $418, up $53 from prior week.
Argentina corn feed was up $44/t for the week, closing at $343.
Brazilian corn feed (Paranagua) was valued at $349, up $26 from prior week.
Argentina feed barley, was up $15/t at $330.
Argentina soybean was up $19 at $695.
Brazilian soybean rose $9 finishing the week at $680.
Meantime, Argentina’s government said it would establish a mechanism to control domestic wheat prices and keep food inflation low reported Reuters.
The government announced it had set up a “trust” with exporters and flour millers which they said will keep food prices lower.
The ongoing war in Ukraine sent prices 19% higher week-on-week in the Argentine grain market.
A representative with CIARA, a professional grain organization, said that the measures were “coercive.”
Farmers, who were not included in the government discussions, were said to be opposed to the measures.
On the European market, also Euronext ended an historic week, with another strong bullish performance, especially on its closest contracts.
Particularly, Friday’s session was again marked by extreme volatility, with unprecedented peaks both for wheat and corn at 426 and 420 euros per tonne respectively on the March deadline, the closest.
However, by the close, corn price finally stabilized, down 29 euros, at 350 euros per tonne on the March deadline but was up 15.5 euros on the June deadline, at 343 euros per ton.
Wheat price was up by 12 euros to 393.75 euros per tonne for the March deadline and by 5.50 euros per tonne, to close at 371.75 euros for the May deadline.
For rapeseed, the May 2022 contract gained €11/t on Friday evening, to €820.75/t.
Thus, the March wheat contract rose 103.75 euros for the week, while the May contract was up 82 euros per tonne.
That represent a weekly gain of 35.77% and 28.3% respectvily.
Corn prices soared 60.75 euros for the week, bouncing 21%.
For rapeseed, the May contract closed this week, up €93.75/t.
That was “only” a 12.89% gain week on week.
March-22 UK feed wheat futures, rose £52.4 from prior week, closing at £281.9/t, while May contract closed at £285, up £54 from prior week.
Meantime, as of March 3, 2022, FOB prices in US dollar for French wheat with 11.5% protein and March delivery, were at $427/mt, up $64 from prior week.
French durum wheat, FOB Port la Nouvelle was not quoted for the sixth consecutive week.
French durum wheat – basis La Pallice, was at $448.09/mt, up $22.83 from prior week.
Spanish durum wheat Sevilla (DepSilo), was at $575.33/mt, down $6.60 from prior week.
Italian durum wheat Bologna (Delivered to first customer), was valued this week at $567.58 per tonne down $6.52 from past week.
German wheat (Depsilo) with 12.5 pro was at $323.07/mt, up $8.61 from last week.
Baltic wheat (Delivery First) quoted this week at $315.32, up $23.24 from past week.
Corn delivered Bordeaux Spot – July 2021 basis was at $372.85 per tonne, up $58.39 from prior week.
FOB Rhin Spot – July 2021 basis was at $370.64 per tonne, up $44.98 week on week.
Feed barley delivered Rouen – July 2021 basis was at 393.87$/t, up $38.
Malting barley FOB Creil Spot – July 2021 basis was at $381.70 per tonne, up $1.22/t from prior week.
Rapessed FOB Moselle Spot – Flat – 2021 harvest was at 916.09$/ton, up $43.2 compared to prior week.
Standard sunseed delivered St Nazaire Spot – Flat – 2021 harvest was up 91.32 $ from prior week at $818.74 per tonne.
(Eur/USD = 1.1064 vs last week 1.1191).
From the Black Sea basin, export demand for the Russian wheat and new sales faded at the end of last week, and basically were disrupted this week, due to geopolitical risks.
Navigation in the AzovSea was stopped on Feb. 24 even if some Russian BlackSea terminals continued to load and ship grain.
According to IKAR, “there were almost no sales,” adding that it estimated the “virtual” price for Russian wheat with 12.5% protein content from the Black Sea ports at $340 per tonne free on board (FOB).
According to SovEcon, meantime, Russian wheat fully stopped on Feb. 24.
Before that, the export price was at $314 per tonne, according to Sovecon.
Meantime, Russian Ag. Min has amended the export tax for wheat, barley and corn for the week of March 11 – 15, 2022.
Particularly, the export duty will be $86.9 on wheat, $72.3 on barley and $53.9 on corn.
Indicative prices will be $324.2 for wheat, $288.4 for barley and $262 for corn.
That is compared, with prior week (March 3-9) when the tax was $88.2 for wheat, $72.3 for barley and $52.7 for corn, while indicative price were $326.1 for wheat, $288.4 for barley and $260.3 for corn.
Russia’s Industry and Trade Ministry has recommended the country’s fertilizer producers suspend shipments until carriers can guarantee the freight will be completed in full.
This week, major international shipping groups suspended nearly all cargo shipments to and from Russia to comply with Western sanctions.
A Russian fertilizer source said they don’t have any containers and ships are not coming in.
Russia is the second-largest producer of ammonia, urea, and potash and the fifth largest producer of processed phosphates.
Russia accounts for 23% ammonia, 14% urea, 21% potash, and 10% processed phosphate exports.
In Ukraine, as of March 2, 2022, Ukraine wheat prices were at $362/t, up $67 from prior week.
Corn price was at $330 per tonne, up $36/t week on week.
Barley was valued at 300 $/t, up $3/t from last week.
From the Middle Kingdom, the condition of China’s winter wheat crop could be the “worst in history”, the agriculture minister said on Saturday, raising concerns about grain supplies in the world’s biggest wheat consumer.
Speaking to reporters on the sidelines of the country’s annual parliament meeting, Minister of Agriculture and Rural Affairs Tang Renjian said that rare heavy rainfall last year delayed the planting of about one-third of the normal wheat acreage.
A survey of the winter wheat crop taken before the start of winter found that the amount of first- and second-grade crop was down by more than 20 percentage points, Tang said.
Fuelled by the Ukraine crisis, wheat prices in China soared to a record this week on existing domestic supply worries.
China’s wheat prices on Thursday, indeed, topped 3,000 yuan per tonne for the first time this week.
Particularly, wheat prices across several key demand hubs in China, have jumped by more than 100 yuan in the past week, with bids as high as 3,250 yuan per tonne in the south, data from Shanghai Intelligence Consultancy showed.
China’s state planner said in its own report at the parliament meeting that grain supply remains tight, despite consecutive good harvests in recent years.
To address the issue, the National Development and Reform Commission’s (NDRC) report said China will ensure that grain acreage for the year stays above 117.33 million hectares (289.93 million acres).
China will also increase the production of soybeans and other oilseed crops, the NDRC said, reiterating top policy priorities in the farm sector.
The country will also build up momentum to increase corn output, it said.
China will guarantee the supply-demand balance of grain, edible oil, cotton, sugar and fertilisers through the effective use of reserves and imports, the NDRC said.
China will allocate 41.639 billion yuan ($6.59 billion) in subsidies in 2022 for agricultural insurance premiums, up 30.8% from a year earlier, the finance ministry said in another report.
($1 = 6.3188 Chinese yuan renminbi).
From Australia, indicative delivered prices in Australian dollars per tonne were:
Barley Downs: $315 up $23 from Feb 24;
SFW wheat Downs: $340, up $27 from Feb 24;
Sorghum Downs: $310, up $24 from Feb 24;
Barley Melbourne: $340, up $15 from Feb 24;
ASW wheat Melbourne: $390 up $30 from Feb 24.
SFW wheat Melbourne: $380 up $25 from Feb 24.
(AUD/USD=> US$0.7329).
On international scene, World food prices hit a record high in February, led by a surge in vegetable oils and dairy products, to post a 24.1% increase year-on-year, the U.N. food agency said on Friday.
The FAO food price index, which tracks the most globally traded food commodities, averaged 140.7 points last month against a downwardly revised 135.4 in January.
That figure was previously given as 135.7.
Particularly, FAO said its vegetable oils index rose 8.5% month-on-month in February to chalk up another record high, propelled by rising palm, soy, and sunflower oil prices.
The cereal price index rose 3.0% on the month, with maize prices up 5.1% and wheat prices increasing 2.1%.
FAO’s dairy price index increased 6.4%, its sixth consecutive monthly rise, underpinned by tight global supplies, while meat prices rose 1.1% in February.
By contrast, sugar was the sole index to post a decrease, shedding 1.9% from the previous month due partly to favourable production prospects in major exporters India and Thailand.
Meantime, FAO also issued its first projections for cereal output in 2022, seeing global wheat production rising to 790 million tonnes from 775.4 million in 2021, thanks in part to hopes of high yields and extensive planting in Canada, the United States and Asia.
FAO said maize outputs in Argentina and Brazil in 2022 were forecast at well above-average levels, notably in Brazil where the maize crop was seen reaching a record high 112 million tonnes.
World cereal utilization in 2021/22 was forecast to rise 1.5% above the 2020/21 level, hitting 2.802 billion tonnes.
FAO’s forecast for world cereal stocks by the close of seasons in 2022 stood at 836 million tonnes.
The U.N. agency cautioned however that its projections did not take into account the possible impact of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.
Data for the February report, indeed, was mostly compiled before the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Concerns over tensions in the Black Sea area were already weighing on agricultural markets even before the violence flared, but analysts warn a prolonged conflict could have a major impact on grain exports.
Watching next week market, next Monday will start things off with the market reacting to any new developments from over the weekend.
USDA will release weekly export inspections data on Monday morning.
On Tuesday, Census will put out trade data from January.
EIA will give their weekly update on Wednesday.
On Wednesday, March 9, the market will also be updated on the US and World balance sheet via the WASDE reports.
Analysts expect to see a 74 mbu trim to corn U.S. ending stocks.
If realized that would leave the national carryout at 1.466 bbu.
Global corn supplies are estimated 2.7 MMT tighter to 299.5 MMT.
For South America production the pre-trade estimates are seeking a 1.4 MMT cut for Brazil and a 2.1 MMT cut for Argentina corn.
For soybean, analysts are looking for a domestic soy carryout cut of 45.6 mbu.
The full range is to see between no change and a 143 mbu cut to between 325 and 182 mbu.
For global soy stocks, traders are looking for 88.7 MMT on average, or a 4.2 MMT trim from Feb.
South American production is expected to be cut 2 MMT in Argentina on average and 5.1 MMT in Brazil on average.
The lowest estimates are 40 (-5 MMT) and 121.2 (-12.8 MMT) respectively.
As for wheat, estimates are expecting a 16.7 mbu stocks cut for the U.S. on average – with many private analysts citing the Russia/Ukraine war as justification for increased U.S. exports.
The full range of estimates is to see between a 10 mbu bump and a 79 mbu cut.
For world wheat stocks, the trade is looking for 277.5 MMT on average, or a 700k MT cut from the Feb report.
Wednesday is also the last trading day for March cotton futures.
Fast forward to Thursday morning and FAS will release the Export Sales report.
That’s all.
To all of you I wish you a good weekend.
Author: Sandro F. Puglisi
