Most of ag commodities, except soybean meal, were higher on the week.
MPLS led the way with a 9.09% gain.
Chicago SRW was up 4.54% on the week.
KC HRW was 3.81% higher on the week.
Corn prices posted contract highs in several contract months during this week.
Contract May, added another 3.13%.
Also new crop December had another round of gains, up 12 cents from last week.
Soybean futures, in contrast, have been stagnant recently, with this week showing a Friday/Friday gain by only a penny.
New crop contracts were down ½ cent.
Soybean oil was up 1.38%.
Soy Meal was the ball and chain, down 2.19%.
The Baltic Dry Index (BDI), gained 1%on the week to end at 2,088.
The U.S. Dollar Index decreased from last week’s 93.02 to close at 92.15.
Most of the trade action this week was focused on the Friday WASDE report, with USDA raised the US wheat carryout projection by 16 mbu to 852 mbu, mainly on a reduction to the feed and residual number thanks to higher March 1 stocks.
That was not the case for the world, however, as WAOB cut a total of 5.6 MMT from the global carryout to 295.52 MMT.
Most of that was via an increase to Chinese feed use.
US corn planting progress is beginning, with 2% planted as of last Sunday.
Meantime, USDA also cut projected US corn ending stocks to 1.352 bbu.
They did that by adding a combined 150 mbu to each of the three use categories.
On the world side, USDA cut World ending stocks by 3.85 MMT to 283.85 MMT.
They made very few changes to the end line of the US soybean balance sheet, as ending stocks were unch at 120 mbu.
They did adjust the individual categories, with crush down 10 mbu, exports up 30 mbu and seed and residual down 20 mbu.
Abaout soybean, we have also seen disappointing weekly export sales data, with bookings that had a net reduction of 92,461 MT, with 338,552 MT in sales reported for new crop delivery.
Total old crop export commitments for the MY now total 60.749 MMT.
That is 97.9% of the revised USDA full year forecast, compared to the 5-year average pace of 90% for this date.
Shipments have progressed to 89% of that projection vs. the 75% average.
February exports totaled 4.56 MMT (167.5 mbu) according to Census, the fifth largest on record for the month.
Weekly Export Sales, in contrast, showed corn bookings at 757,039 MT old crop and 50,000 MT for 2021/22 crop delivery.
That took the 20/21 shipped and unshipped sale total to 98% of newly updated USDA forecast vs. the 82% average.
Exports are 53% complete of the WASDE projection, with the normal pace at 50%.
Census data showed a record 6.31 MMT (248.4 mbu) shipped during February.
About wheat, weekly Export Sales report showed a MY low 81,969 MT in sales for the week of 4/1.
New crop sales, though, totaled a MY high 529,850 MT.
Total wheat export commitments for old crop are now to 25.185 MMT, totaling 95% of the USDA projection, vs. the average pace of 101%.
Unseasonably warm and dry weather expanded moisture deficits across wheat growing areas.
Dry conditions in Texas and Oklahoma expanded as gusty winds dried out soils.
Soil moisture in the Dakota’s worsened as unseasonably high temperatures.
Dry weather persisted across much of the west, too, with dry conditions worsening for Eastern Washington, South Central Oregon, Eastern Montana, and parts of Wyoming.
The large money spec funds trimmed back their net long position in corn futures and options by 8,965 contracts during the week of 4/6. That position stood at 386,619 contracts on that date.
Managed money, on the other hand, parred back their new net short position in CBT wheat futures and options during the week that ended on Tuesday by 7,128 contracts to a net short 7,583 contracts.
In KC wheat, in contrast, they cut 7,212 contracts from their net long position to 14,510 contracts.
About soybean futures and options, they added 12,425 contracts to their net long position as of Tuesday, taking it to 154,305 contracts.
In this context, CBOT soft red winter (SRW) futures rose 27 cents to close at $6.38/bu.
KCBT hard red winter (HRW) futures were up 21 cents to end at $5.86/bu.
MGE hard red spring (HRS) futures gained 55 cents to close at $6.54/bu.
CBOT corn futures jumped 18 cents to end at $5.59/bu.
CBOT soybean futures gained 1 cent to close at $14.02/bu.
The European Commission reported that wheat exports were at their lowest volume for the marketing year for the week of April 4 at 174,833 metric tons.
Total wheat exports for 2020/21 are estimated at 20.3 MMT, down 23%from last year.
European Union wheat exports are set to tail off at the end of this season as Russia continues to ship supplies despite export levies while importers hold out for cheaper new-crop grain this summer, traders and analysts said.
Brisk sales of EU wheat earlier in the July-June season, including large volumes of French wheat for China and German wheat for Algeria, had fuelled talk of tight stocks after a smaller harvest last summer.
Russia’s decision to tax wheat exports from mid-February, to help cool local prices, was then expected to bring further demand for EU wheat, but prospects have instead dimmed.
The importers are awaiting the new crop in Russia, so you are only talking about 12 weeks before the first supplies can arrive.
Egypt, the world’s largest wheat importer, this week booked Russian and Ukrainian wheat in a tender for August shipment, skipping the final delivery months of this season.
Short-term prospects for EU wheat have also been dented by a smaller than usual volume purchased by Saudi Arabia this week, and a drying up of French sales to China in the face of Australian competition.
However, EU exports should still be sizeable in relation to its smaller 2020/21 surplus, helped by steady demand from Algeria and Morocco.
In add, end of season demand for wheat could also shift towards the domestic EU market.
In deed, soaring corn prices, which are unusually at a premium to wheat in Europe, are expected to lead to more use of wheat in livestock feed.
FranceAgriMer estimates 87%of French soft wheat in good or excellent conditions for the week of March 29, unchanged from the previous week.
However, fears arise in connection with climate adversity, as the severe frosts of recent days in France could have had an impact in particular on winter and spring barley, but also on plots of rapeseed and beetroot.
In this context, Euronext ended the week up on all ag commodities.
Indeed, Matif rapeseed May futures, jumped 16,50 euros to end the week at €510,50/t.
Matif May wheat futures prices gained 3,5 euros to end at €212,75/t.
Matif corn June futures raised 2,75 euros to close at €217,00/t.
From Black Sea basin, planting of spring cereals in Russia is lagging due to persistent rain and sleet.
Russian farmers had planted just 1.4%of the forecasted area by April 2, reported the agriculture ministry.
Spring wheat plantings were only 0.003%of their expected area.
Winter wheat in Ukraine is 98%in good condition and scientists affiliated with the Ukrainian agrarian academy said they saw no reason to cut the 2021 wheat harvest estimated at 29.5 MMT.
APK-Inform, a Ukraine based agriculture consultancy pegged Ukrainian wheat production at 27.5 MMT and wheat exports at 19.8 MMT.
The Ukrainian government expects good weather to help increase the 2021 grain crop to at least 75 million tonnes compared to 65 million tonnes in the previous year.
Consequently, according to APK-Inform, asking prices for high-quality soft milling wheat slipped to $245 to $251 from $254 to $260 a tonne FOB Black Sea Port a week ago.
In the 2019-20 season Ukraine sold 57 million tonnes of wheat but exports could decrease to 45.7 million tonnes in the 2020-21 season.
Ukraine’s grain exports have declined 23% to 35.7 million tonnes this season and traders have used 82.3% of the total wheat export quota of 17.5 million tonnes imposed for the 2020-21 July-June season.
However, escalating tensions on Ukraine’s eastern border with Russia has not affected domestic grain exports and prices.
Kyiv has expressed concern over a build-up of Russian forces near the border between Ukraine and Russia as well as a rise in violence along the line separating Ukrainian troops and Russia-backed separatists in Ukraine’s Donbass region.
All Ukrainian Black Sea ports have resumed operations after they were disrupted on Thursday by military drills, the Ukrainian sea port authority said on Friday 9 April.
USDA Black Sea numbers saw,
Wheat:
Russia 85.354 mmt (0 mmt) | Exports at 39.5 mmt (0.5 mmt);
Ukraine 25.5 mmt (0 mmt) | Exports at 17.5 mmt (0 mmt);
Corn:
Russia 13.872 mmt (0 mmt) | Exports at 3.1 mmt (0 mmt);
Ukraine 29.5 mmt (0 mmt) | Exports at 23 mmt (-1 mmt).
Watching to the next week market, it starts off with trade activity putting more focus on the US crop picture as planting is beginning.
USDA will release the weekly Export Inspections report on Monday morning, with the Crop Progress report that afternoon.
Wednesday, EIA will release their weekly report, including data on ethanol stocks and production.
Thursday is slated to have the Export Sales report in the morning and the NOPA crush report at 11:00 AM CDT.
