Thursday the US markets seen soybeans and corn down by double digits.
Massive losses there were also in crude oil, cattle and assorted other markets.
Friday, corn and soybeans almost completely erased their Thursday losses, and posted gains for the week.
Corn futures had a bookend rally this week, with big gains on Monday and Friday, countered by a big sell off on Thursday.
Overall, May futures were up 3.5%.
New crop December was less ambitious, losing 9 ¾ cents despite concerns that sharply increasing fertilizer prices would curb acreage.
Wheat futures were all lower again.
Chicago SRW was down 1.8% for the week, and KC HRW was down 3%.
MPLS spring wheat was down 1.1%, trying to limit the number of acres switching to oilseeds.
Winter wheat crop condition ratings improved in state crop reports, with rain and snow improving soil moisture levels.
Soybean futures were up a net 3 cents per bushel for the week.
Meal was under significant sell pressure but gained 1.8% for the week after a big rally on Friday.
Soybean oil lost 2.7% for the week as competing veg oils retreated.
Thursday’s Export Sales report showed improved weekly corn sales of 985,900 MT for old crop and 240,900 MT for 2021/22 crop delivery.
The USDA total of shipped and unshipped export sales (i.e. commitments) is 109% of year ago at 60.505 MMT.
That’s 2.381 billion bushels!
Commitments are 92% of the full year WASDE forecast.
They would typically be 75% by now.
About wheat it showed improved wheat sales of 390,100 MT for the week.
That brought the total wheat export commitments to 24.736 MMT.
That 909 million bushels is 3% above last year at this time.
Compared to the USDA projected 20/21 export total of 985 mbu, that would put shipped and unshipped sales at 92% compared to the average pace of 97% for this date.
China’s U.S. wheat purchases are up 170% compared to last year, and purchases of U.S. white wheat are at a 27-year high.
About soybean, report were limited, at 202,400 MT.
There were zero sales reported for new crop delivery.
Total soybean export commitments for the MY now total 60.634 MMT.
That is 99% of the USDA full year forecast, compared to the 5-year average pace of 86% for this date.
Shipments are moving along, at 88% of that projection vs. the 71% average.
The weekly Commitment of Traders report showed spec funds adding 14,386 contracts to their net long position in corn, taking it to 370,900 contracts as of March 17.
That is their largest corn net long since January 12.
It also showed managed money shedding 10,051 contracts from their net long in CBT wheat.
They were still net long 17,525 contracts on March 16.
They pruned another 9,322 contracts from their much larger KC HRW net long, taking it back down to 38,342 contracts.
That is their least bullish position since October.
Meantime, they cut 3,561 contracts from to their CFTC net long in soybeans.
That meant they were net long 156,040 contracts (futures + options) as of March 16.
In this context, US markets seen CBOT soft red winter (SRW) futures to fell 10 cents to close at $6.28/bu.
KCBT hard red winter (HRW) futures slipped 18 cents to end at $5.85/bu.
MGE hard red spring (HRS) futures dropped 7 cents to close at $6.27/bu.
CBOT corn futures jumped 19 cents to end at $5.58/bu.
CBOT soybean futures gained 3 cents to close at $14.16/bu.
A 24 hour strike in the Argentine crush sector on Friday was the only excuse the complex needed to recover from the big Thursday sell off.
And we’re still a week and a half away from the Grain Stocks and Planting Intentions reports.
Pacific Northwest (PNW) HRS, HRW and soft white (SW), and Gulf HRW export basis fell on the week due to increased commercial selling and reduced export demand.
The Baltic Dry Index (BDI), an assessment of the average cost to ship raw materials such as grains, coal and iron ore, jumped 16% on the week to end at 2,281.
The U.S. Dollar Index increased from last week’s 91.67 to close at 91.93
Prices on the Paris-based Matif exchange were primarily flat this week, hovering around onemonth lows after failing to drum up demand.
Rapeseed admittedly took advantage of the sharp rebound in crude oil prices of Friday, to limit losses of the week, while grains remained stuck in a stable downward trend.
Regarding wheat, the lack of risk for the next harvest is particularly dragging prices into the red.
Although down by one point over the week, the ratings of soft wheat in France by FranceAgriMer remain particularly encouraging (87%).
Stratégie Grains, in add, lowered its monthly forecast for soft wheat exports from the European Union (EU) by 900,000 MT to 25.2 MMT after a sharp drop in exports, after initial Chinese interest dried up.
European corn, for its part, was hesitant despite the strong recovery in prices across the Atlantic as operators noted that climatic conditions are finally improving in South America.
With drier weather, brazilian soybean harvests and corn planting will be able to accelerate.
In Argentina, on the other hand, the arrival of precipitation should improve the condition of the crops and in this context the Buenos Aires Stock Exchange has raised its ratings of “good to excellent” corn by five points, to 22%.
However, we must note that this figure remains thirteen points lower than last year.
Also in Russia the climate is currently favorable for a good harvest in 2021.
Ukraine’s new agriculture minister said there is no reason to curb crop exports and that Ukraine plays a crucial role in the global supply chain.
About this, China tripled purchases of Ukrainian barley, driving the price of high-quality Ukrainian milling wheat lower.
In this context, mistreated in recent sessions, Euronext ended the week on a mixed note but mainly lower.
Indeed, Matif May wheat futures prices fell 3,5 euros to end at €219,75/t.
Matif corn June futures slipped 0,25 euros to close at €215,25/t.
Matif rapeseed May futures, tumbled 7,00 euros to end at €515/t.
Watching to next week market, livestock traders will begin the week reacting to the USDA Cattle on Feed report released yesterday afternoon.
The weekly USDA Export Inspections report is expected on Monday, along with a few scattered state crop condition reports.
The monthly USDA Cold Storage report is also slated for a Monday release.
The weekly EIA ethanol production and stocks report will be out on Wednesday, and USDA’s weekly Export Sales data will be released on Thursday morning at 7:30 am CST.
Friday marks the expiration of April serial options on the grains.
