Good morning, Farmer Family …

US farm markets grabbed solid gains on Thursday.

Corn prices eased slightly in the front month, down 0.25%, while Sep contract jumped 1.55% higher.

Soybeans climbed 2.29% higher, with soymeal rising 2.03%, while soyoil jumped 3.59%.

The wheat complex rose across all three markets, with Chicago SRW finding the biggest boost, moving 2.78% higher.

Kansas City HRW gained 1.52%, while Minneapolis HRS rose 1.15%.

Dry weather forecasts and optimism over US debt ceiling negotiations, boosted grain markets higher, as well as crude oil prices and Wall Street equity markets.

On the other hand, a setback in the dollar, and commodity fund buying at the start of a new month, lent additional support.

Notably, according to the NOAA, plenty of rain is expected to fall on parts of the Southern Plains between Friday and Monday, but the Corn Belt is unlikely to see large amounts of rain through the weekend and into early next week. 

The weekly U.S. Drought Monitor showed that 66% of the Midwest was abnormally dry by May 30, up from 27% the prior week.

In addition, the U.S. Climate Prediction Center’s latest monthly drought outlook, released on Wednesday, showed that drought was likely to develop in June across Iowa and most of Illinois, the top two U.S. corn and soybean states, as well as Indiana, Ohio and Pennsylvania.

However, the agency’s new 8-to-14-day outlook predicts some wetter weather reemerging in parts of the Plains and the Ohio River Valley between June 8 and June 14, with warmer-than-normal conditions returning to parts of the Northern Plains and upper Midwest.

Meantime, weekly EIA data showed ethanol producers were back above 1m barrels for their average daily production with 1.004 for the week that ended 5/26. 

That was the first +1m since mid-April. 

However, ethanol stocks also were 291k barrels higher to 22.332 million.

That was 1% firmer from last week.

Also, USDA’s monthly Grain Crushings & Fat Oils report, had 415.74 mbu of corn used for ethanol in April. 

That was a 4.7% drop from March though was near the same level as last season. 

As a result, total corn use was officially 64.8% of the WASDE forecast through April, with only 3.4 bbu. 

NASS also reported 186.97 mbu of soybeans were processed during the month of April. 

That was down 5.5% from March on one less crush day, although was a new record for the month. 

Traders were looking for 184.8 mbu on average going in. 

However, soybean oil stocks were 2.54b lbs, compared to 2.39b last month and 2.5b expected. 

As for wheat, the market also drew support from news of excess rain in China’s wheat belt. 

Traders also noted worries about the Black Sea grain export pact between Russia and Ukraine, after a Ukraine official said the United Nations-brokered deal had been halted again because Russia had blocked registration of ships to all Ukrainian ports, and a spokesman said the U.N. is concerned about slow implementation of the deal.

In this context, corn basis bids were steady to mixed, after rising 5 to 8 cents higher at two Midwestern ethanol plants while sinking 5 to 10 cents lower at three other central U.S. locations.

Soybean basis bids were largely steady across the central U.S., but did tilt 5 cents higher at two Midwestern processors while sliding 2 cents lower at an Iowa river terminal.

Commodity funds were net buyers of CBOT corn, soybean, wheat, soymeal and soyoil futures.

On this morning, Chicago wheat prices dipped during Asian trading, and were on track for a weekly decline as damage to crops in China from heavy rain is seen unlikely to dampen global supply.

Corn and soybeans also fell and headed for weekly losses as expectations of plentiful supplies outweighed worries about dry weather in the US Midwest.

Thus, the most-active wheat contract on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) fell 0.3% to $6.09-1/4 a bushel, as of 05:00 GMT, after a two-day rebound from a 2-1/2-year low.

CBOT corn lost 0.6% to $5.89 a bushel and soybeans shed 0.3% to $13.25-1/2 a bushel.

Thursday’s statement from Ukraine’s ministry of renovation and infrastructure about a new halting of Black Sea grain export deal, capped losses.

From Canada, Refinitiv Commodities Research pegged Canadian 2023-24 canola production at 18.1Mt (18.4Mt AAFC), with some area expected to be switched to wheat and other crops. 

Canola planted area is expected to decline by 1 percent, to 8.6 million hectares, broadly in line with the five-year average. 

In recent weeks, concerns about less than ideal planting conditions in Western Canada were noted, with soil moisture conditions rated insufficient in nearly all major cropping regions. 

2023-24 wheat production was forecast at 33.3Mt (35.8Mt AAFC) with dryness noted in most of key growing regions in Western Canada, yield prospects remain uncertain. 

Soil moisture levels in major producing areas of south-western Saskatchewan and south-eastern Alberta had been at five-year lows since January. 

Meantime, the Saskatchewan government has estimated 89% of the province’s crop has been planted as of May 29, up from 68% last week and close to the five-year average of 92%. While this is well ahead of the 76% seeded as of this week last year, the previous four years saw from 91% to 99% of the crop seeded as of this week.

The three regions on the west side of the province have completed from 90% to 97% of spring seeding (south to north), with the Northwest Region eight percentage points ahead of average. 

The three regions on the east side of the province have completed 80% to 89% of intended acres (south to north), with the Northeast Region three percentage points ahead of average. 

The two northern regions are the only regions ahead of their respective average pace.

By crop, 91% of the spring wheat (90.3%), 88% of the durum (95.3%), 84% of the canola (86.3%) and 95% of the field peas (96.3%) is planted as of this week, with an average in brackets calculated using available data from four of the past five years.

Cropland topsoil moisture has improved during the past week due to recent rains, most concentrated just north of Saskatoon and in the Melfort-Tisdale region in the northeast. 

The area of the province rated as having adequate topsoil moisture increased by 13 points to 76%, the highest percentage reported this season. 

The area rated short to very-short topsoil moisture fell by 16 percentage points to 19% over the past week, the lowest rating reported since the first report on May 8.

The crop is viewed as good-to-excellent overall, with spring wheat rated the highest at 87% G/E, durum at 87% G/E and canola at 81% G/E.

From South America, StoneX upwarded revision of Brazil’s corn production.

Notably, Brazil’s 2022/2023 total corn crop is now seen at 133.75 million tonnes, according to StoneX, up from its previous estimate of 131.59 million tonnes.

According to Agresource, Brazil’s total corn production will reach 127.43 MMT this season.

As for soybean, Agresource is projecting Brazil’s 2022/23 soybean production at 155.16 MMT – one of the more bullish estimates at this time. 

That would also easily be a new record production, if realized. 

Meantime, Brazilian export data had 385k MT of corn exports for the month of May. 

That was well below the 1.09 MMT shipped last year. 

In contrast, official Brazilian export data marked May’s soybean program at 15.61 MMT. 

That was a 47% increase from May ’22. 

In Argentina, farmers in core growing regions have begun sowing wheat for the 2023/24 season after intense rain in recent weeks.

The recent downpour in Argentina’s key agricultural farmland has improved expectations for the 2023/2024 wheat crop, after a historic drought crimped yields.

In Europe, grain markets were mixed, with wheat rebounding from multi-month low, while corn eased.

Meanwhile, rapeseed rose in the wake of palm and soybean.

Romania has asked the EU to take measures to limit competition from the flow of goods from Ukraine. 

This is disrupting the local market and amplifying the discontent of producers in the east of the EU. 

EU Commissioner for Agriculture announced the need to extend the ban on the import of 4 crops to the five dissatisfied East EU countries until the end of October this year. 

While Hungary is reportedly already demanding the ban be extended until the end of the year.

However, Russian origins remain very competitive for the coming season on the international trade scene, and that capped the upside potential. 

On the wether side, the high-pressure system remains in place over much of Europe.

Northern plains are forecast to remain dry next week, with greater chances of showers the following week.

Meantime, the condition of French soft wheat declined in the week to May 29, data from farm office FranceAgriMer showed on Friday, suggesting a dry spell was starting to affect some crops.

Notably an estimated 91% of soft wheat was rated as being in good or excellent condition, down from 93% the previous week.

The score, however, was well above the 67% registered a year earlier. 

It was also the joint-highest for the time of year over the past decade.

The weekly good/excellent ratings for winter and spring barley also shed two percentage points, to 88% and 93% respectively, FranceAgriMer said.

Grain maize sowing, hampered by cool, wet weather earlier in spring, had 98% of the expected area sown.

The condition rating for emerged grain maize crops fell by two points to 92% good/excellent, the office said.

From the Black Sea basin, Ukrainian Ministry of Infrastructure said Russian representatives in the JCC had refused to register and carry out vessel inspections without any explanation. 

Since the extension of the deal 7 ships departed from the seaports of Odesa and Chornomorsk. 

Total volume of shipments during this period was 255.47kmt, mostly corn to China. 

18 ships are now under loading. 

“Due to Russia’s actions, more than 1.5 mln tonnes of Ukrainian agricultural products are currently blocked in the Port of Pivdenny,” according to a statement from the President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

“And this grain is expected by at least ten countries of the world, including Turkey, Egypt, Bangladesh, and China,” Zelenskyy added. 

However, restrictions on the registration of “grain corridor” vessels bound for the Ukrainian Port of Pivdenny will remain in effect until the export of Russian ammonia resumes, according to the representative of the UN Secretary-General Stephane Dujarric.

“The Russian Federation informed the JCC about the restriction of vessel registrations in the Port of Pivdenny due to the lack of Russian exports of ammonia,” S. Dujarric said.

He also noted that starting from May 22, the number of registrations of “grain corridor” vessels decreased from three to two per day.

According to him, a total of 33 ships left Ukrainian ports in May – half as much as in April, and only three of them left the Port of Pivdenny.

As S. Dujarric clarified, the exports within the grain initiative in May amounted to 1.3 mln tonnes of grain and other food products, which is less than half of the April figure.

“We will continue to actively engage with the parties to fully restore operations within the framework of the continuation of the initiative. In particular, we are seeking commitments regarding unconditional vessel access to all three ports within the initiative, an increase in the number of successful inspections carried out per day and estimated registrations to avoid unnecessary vessel delays, the export of fertilizers, including ammonia, and restoration of work of the Tolyatti-Odesa ammonia pipeline,” the UN representative summarized.

From Australia, local wheat markets traded a touch firmer over the day yesterday, noting some more demand showing up for domestic consumers into Q3. 

The 8-day forecast is looking promising, especially for southern WA and areas of NSW that have so far missed out on a decent break. 

This front will be watched closely as it will dictate establishment.

There is 10-50mm pencilled in for WA and SA, Vic is looking at 15-50mm, most of NSW, except for the northeast which has 25-50mm on the forecast while Qld is looking at less than 10mm. 

On the international trade scene, leading South Korean animal feed maker Nonghyup Feed Inc (NOFI) bought about 64,000 tonnes of animal feed wheat to be sourced from optional worldwide origins in an international tender on Thursday.

It was bought at an estimated $258.70 a tonne c&f plus a $1.50 a tonne surcharge for additional port unloading for arrival in South Korea around Nov. 5. 

The seller was believed to be trading house Pan Ocean.

Offers for another consignment of about 65,000 tonnes also sought in the tender for arrival around Oct. 15 were regarded as too high and rejected with no purchase made.

The lowest price offered for the Oct. 15 consignment was believed to be $263.86 a tonne c&f plus a $1.50 a tonne surcharge for additional port unloading for the full 65,000 tonnes. 

The offer was submitted by trading house Viterra.

The tender sought wheat from worldwide optional origins, but Russia, Argentina, Pakistan, Denmark and China were excluded as sources. 

The wheat cannot be loaded in ports in Russia and Ukraine.

If sourced from the U.S. Pacific Northwest coast, Australia or Canada, shipment of the Nov. 5 consignment was sought for Oct. 2-21. 

If from the U.S. Gulf or Europe, shipment was sought for Sept. 12 to Oct. 1. 

From South America, shipment was for Sept. 7-26 and from South Africa it was between Sept. 17 and Oct. 6.

South Korean importers Major Feedmill Group (MFG) and Feed Leaders Committee (FLC) also bought feed wheat on Wednesday.

Notably, South Korea’s Major Feedmill Group purchased 55,000t feed wheat from optional origins, at $263.90/t c&f.

South Korea’s Feed Leaders Committee (FLC) purchased about 55,000t feed wheat from optional origins, at US$261.25/t c&f, Aug shipment.

In outside markets …

Energy markets saw oil prices rising on Thursday by the most in two weeks, recovering from two-straight sessions of losses after the House passed a bill late on Wednesday to suspend the U.S. government’s debt ceiling and improve chances of averting a default. 

Earlier signals of a potential pause in rate hikes by the Federal Reserve also provided support to oil prices, not least by weighing on the U.S. dollar , making oil cheaper for holders of other currencies.

Thus, U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) rose $2.01, or 3%, to settle at $70.10 a barrel, recording its biggest daily gains since May 5.

Brent crude futures settled at $74.28 a barrel, up by $1.68, or 2.3%, to $74.65 a barrel, their biggest daily gains since May 17.

Then, the market’s focus has also shifted to a June 4 meeting of the Organization of the OPEC+, that may be leading to a little caution.

Is unlikely to deepen supply cuts at the Sunday meeting, but some analysts maintain that it is a possibility as demand indicators from China and the U.S. have been disappointing in recent weeks.

U.S. crude oil stockpiles rose unexpectedly last week, according to data from the Energy Information Administration.

Also, traders are watching to see how strong the developed world’s summer demand uptick will be relative to the struggles of China’s cyclical recovery.

The U.S. Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said its manufacturing PMI fell to 46.9 last month, the seventh-straight month that the PMI stayed below 50, indicating a contraction in activity.

Manufacturing data out of China painted a mixed picture. 

Thursday’s better-than-expected Caixin/S&P Global China manufacturing PMI contrasted with the previous day’s official government data that reported factory activity in May had contracted to the lowest level in five months.

However, traders are “thinking that Russia might not necessarily stick to a hard stance on output cuts, especially since they are struggling to commit to their quotes.

On this morning, oil prices rose on bullish sentiment following the passage of the U.S. debt ceiling bill in Washington.

Notably, Brent crude futures rose 77 cents, or 1% to $75.05 a barrel by 08:06 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) was up 69 cents, or 1%, at $70.79. 

However, both contracts were headed for their first weekly loss in three weeks.

In ocean freight markets, the Baltic exchange’s main sea freight index extended losses for the 15th session straight on Thursday, hitting its more than three-month low as shipping rates fell across all vessel segments.

The overall index, indeed, fell 40 points, or 4.1%, to its lowest since Feb. 24 at 937.

Notably, the capesize index lost 74 points or 6.1% at 1,144, hitting its lowest level since March 2.

Average daily earnings for capesizes, which typically transport 150,000-tonne cargoes such as iron ore and coal, decreased $612 to $9,487.

The panamax index shed 15 points or 1.4% to 1,030 – its lowest since Feb. 22.

Average daily earnings for panamaxes, which usually carry coal or grain cargoes of about 60,000 to 70,000 tonnes, decreased $135 to $9,270.

Among smaller vessels, the supramax index lost 34 points, or about 3.9%, at 847, to hit its lowest since late February.

In equity markets, US stock indexes settled moderately higher, with the S&P 500 posting a 9-1/2 month high and the Dow Jones Industrials posting a 1-week high.  

Stocks rallied, as U.S. default concerns eased after the House late Wednesday passed a bill to raise the debt ceiling.  

Also, inflation concerns subsided and knocked T-note yields lower, which boosted technology stocks after the May U.S. ISM prices paid sub-index contracted by the most in 5 months. 

Stocks extended their gains and bond yields fell further Thursday after Philadelphia Fed President Harker signaled his support for pausing Fed rate hikes.  

Thursday economic data showed, the U.S. May ADP employment change rose +278,000, stronger than expectations of +170,000.

U.S. weekly initial unemployment claims rose +2,000 to 232,000, showing a stronger labor market than expectations of 235,000.

U.S. Q1 nonfarm productivity was revised upward to -2.1% from -2.7%, better than expectations of -2.4%. Also, Q1 unit labor costs were revised downward to +4.2% from the initially reported +6.3%, better than expectations of +6.0%.

The U.S. May ISM manufacturing index fell -0.2 to 46.9, slightly weaker than expectations of 47.0.  

The May ISM prices paid sub-index fell -9.0 to 44.2, a bigger decline than expectations of 52.3 and the weakest level in 5 months.

As a result, the 10-year T-note yield fell to a 2-week low of 3.563% and finished down -3.8 bp at 3.605%.  

In this context, on Wall Street, the S&P 500 rose to 4,221.02. 

The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.5% to 33,061.57 and the Nasdaq composite jumped 1.3% to 13,100.98.

On this morning, Asian stock markets followed Wall Street higher.

Notably, the Shanghai Composite Index gained 0.8% to 3,229.06 and the Nikkei 225 in Tokyo added 1% to 31,445.15. 

The Hang Seng in Hong Kong surged 3.7% to 18,883.22.

The Kospi in Seoul rose 1.1% to 2,595.55 and the S&P ASX 200 in Sydney was less than 0.1% higher at 7,130.20.

India’s Sensex opened up less than 0.1% at 62,434.48. 

New Zealand declined while Bangkok advanced. 

Markets in Singapore and Indonesia were closed for holidays.

In currency trading, the dollar index fell -0.74% and posted a 1-week low, on lower T-note yields, and the May ISM manufacturing index which contracted more than expected.

In addition, the action by the House to pass the debt ceiling agreement sparked a rally in stocks that curbed the liquidity demand for the dollar. 

Notably, the EUR/USD rose by +0.67% and posted a 1-week high.  

The euro Thursday recovered from early losses and moved higher on hawkish comments today from ECB President Lagarde, who said, “There is no clear evidence that underlying inflation in the Eurozone has peaked.”  

EUR/USD Thursday initially moved lower after Thursday’s Eurozone May CPI report showed a smaller-than-expected increase in Eurozone May CPI, which was dovish for ECB policy.

Eurozone May CPI indeed eased to +6.1% y/y from +7.0% y/y in Apr, weaker than expectations of +6.3% y/y and the smallest increase in 15 months.  

Also, May core CPI eased to +5.3% y/y from +5.6% y/y in Apr, weaker than expectations of +5.5% y/y.

The Eurozone May S&P manufacturing PMI was revised upward by +0.2 to 44.8 from the initially reported 44.6.

The Eurozone Apr unemployment rate fell -0.1 to a record low 6.5% (data from 1998), right on expectations.

German Apr retail sales rose +0.8 m/m, the biggest increase in 5 months.

As for the USD/JPY, it fell by -0.39% and has declined every day this week.  

The yen posted a 1-week high against the dollar Thursday after the 10-year T-note yield dropped to a 2-week low.  

Also, better-than-expected Japanese economic news Thursday was supportive for the yen after Q1 capital spending ex-software posted its largest increase in nearly five years. 

Notably, the Japan May Jibun Bank manufacturing PMI was revised downward by -0.2 to 50.6 from the initially reported 50.8.

Japan’s Q1 capital spending ex-software rose +10.0% y/y, stronger than expectations of +3.7% y/y and the biggest increase in 4-3/4 years.

On this morning, the dollar declined to 138.74 yen from Thursday’s 138.86 yen. 

The euro edged up to $1.0765 from $1.0762.


The FAO Food Price Index averaged 124.3 points in May 2023, down 3.4 points (2.6%) from Apr and as much as 35.4 points (22.1%) from the all-time high it reached in Mar 2022. 

The decline in May was underpinned by significant drops in the price indices for vegetable oils, cereals and dairy, which were partly counterbalanced by increases in the sugar and meat indices.

Notably, the FAO Cereal Price Index averaged 129.7 points in May, down 6.5 points (4.8%) from Apr and as much as 43.9 points (25.3%) below its record-high value one year ago. 

International wheat prices declined by 3.5% month-on-month, reflecting prospects for ample global supplies in the upcoming 2023/24 season and the extension of the Black Sea Grain Initiative. 

World maize prices fell by 9.8% in May. 

A favourable outlook for 2023/24 pointing to a rebound in global supplies, with higher production expected in Brazil and the USA, two major exporters, weighed on prices. 

A slow pace of exports by the USA, along with cancelled purchases by China, also exerted downward pressure on world maize prices. 

Among other coarse grains, world prices of barley and sorghum also declined, by 9.5% and 9.7%, respectively, influenced by declines in international maize and wheat prices. 

By contrast, international prices of rice continued to increase in May, as previous deals with Asian buyers were executed and supplies tightened in some exporters, such as Viet Nam and Pakistan.

The FAO Vegetable Oil Price Index averaged 118.7 points in May, down 11.3 points (8.7%) month-on-month and standing as much as 48.2% below its year-earlier level. 

The continued decline in the index reflected lower world prices across palm, soy, rapeseed and sunflower oils. 

International palm oil prices fell markedly from Apr, as protracted weak global import purchases coincided with expectations of rising outputs in major producing countries. 

In the meantime, world soyoil prices dropped for the sixth consecutive month, largely underpinned by the persistent pressure from a bumper soybean crop in Brazil and higher-than-expected stocks in the USA. 

As for rapeseed and sunflower oils, international prices continued to decline on ample global supplies.

The FAO Dairy Price Index averaged 118.7 points in May, down 3.9 points (3.2%) from Apr and standing 25.5 points (17.7%) below its corresponding value in 2022. 

The decline in May was led by a steep drop in international cheese prices, principally due to ample export availabilities, including from inventories, amid seasonally high milk production in the northern hemisphere. 

Following 10 monthly consecutive declines, international price quotations for milk powders rebounded, reflecting an upturn in purchases by North Asian buyers and seasonally falling milk supplies in Oceania. 

Meanwhile, butter prices rose slightly, as increased price quotations for supplies from Oceania, due to high purchases by Southeast Asian buyers and seasonally falling milk supplies, were almost offset by a decline in European prices on high export availabilities. 

The FAO Meat Price Index averaged 117.9 points in May, up 1.1 points (1.0%) from Apr, marking the fourth consecutive monthly increase, but still 5.0 points (4.1%) below its value in the corresponding month last year. 

International poultry meat prices increased further in May, driven by the continued high import demand, especially from Asia, and some concerns over potential short-term supply challenges due to widespread avian flu outbreaks. 

World bovine meat prices increased slightly, underpinned by higher global demand for Brazilian supplies and persistent supply tightness in the USA, despite the continued high cattle slaughter in Australia. 

Pig meat prices rose for the fourth successive month, although only marginally, as supply limitations stemming from high production costs and animal diseases elsewhere boosted demand for Brazilian supplies. 

Meanwhile, world ovine meat prices fell on high export availabilities from Oceania.

The FAO Sugar Price Index averaged 157.6 points in May, up 8.2 points (5.5%) from April, marking the fourth consecutive monthly increase, and as much as 37.3 points (30.9%) above its value a year ago. 

Rising concerns over how the development of the El Niño phenomenon may affect the 2023/24 crops, together with lower-than-earlier-expected global availabilities in the 2022/23 season, triggered the increase in international sugar prices in May. 

Shipping delays amid strong competition from soybean and maize in Brazil also supported the increase in world sugar prices. 

However, the positive outlook for the 2023 sugarcane crops in Brazil, along with improved weather conditions benefiting the progress of the harvest, prevented larger monthly price gains. 

Lower international crude oil prices and a cut in fuel prices in Brazil further contributed to limiting the month-on-month increase in world sugar prices.

FAO S&D – June Update

In a separate report on cereals supply and demand, as the 2022/23 season is coming to an end, FAO estimates for global cereal production in 2022 indicate a year-on-year decline of 1.0 percent, mostly stemming from a fall in maize production, followed by smaller declines in rice and sorghum outputs. 

However, primarily driven by the tighter availability and higher prices, cereal utilization is also estimated to decrease in 2022/23, by 0.9 percent, largely on account of lower feed use of coarse grains and rice as well as a fall in the other uses of all major cereals, while food consumption has continued to grow. 

With estimated world cereal production exceeding utilization, cereal stocks at the end of seasons in 2023 are estimated to rise marginally (0.2 percent) above their opening levels, with increases in wheat and barley inventories outweighing drawdowns in maize, rice and sorghum stocks. 

Also, global trade in cereals in 2022/23 is estimated to contract by 2.3 percent from the 2021/22 level, with estimated falls in trade volumes for all major cereals, except wheat.

Looking ahead to the 2023/24 season, early prospects point to a likely 1.0-percent increase in global cereal production in 2023 to reach 2 813 million tonnes (including rice in milled equivalent). 

Among the major cereals, the bulk of the increase rests on a foreseen rise in maize production, with increases also anticipated for rice and sorghum. 

Partially offsetting those increases, wheat and barley outputs are predicted to fall below their 2022 levels.

FAO’s first forecast puts world cereal utilization in 2023/24 at around 2 803 million tonnes, up 0.9 percent from the estimated 2022/23 level, almost entirely stemming from a predicted growth in the utilization of coarse grains. 

Higher feed use, largely of maize, is the dominant driver behind the expected increase, followed by growth in food consumption, especially of wheat and rice. 

Industrial use is foreseen to rise only marginally, with expanded use anticipated for maize, rice and barley.

Based on FAO’s initial forecasts for global cereal production in 2023 and utilization in 2023/24, global cereal stocks could rise by 1.7 percent above their opening levels, reaching a record 873 million tonnes. 

Among the major cereals, the increase in maize inventories is expected to be the largest, followed by those of rice and barley. 

By contrast, stocks of wheat and sorghum will likely fall below their opening levels. 

With the current forecasts for utilization and stocks, the world cereal stocks-to-use ratio would decline fractionally, from 30.6 percent in 2022/23 to 30.4 percent in 2023/24.  

Pegged at 472 million tonnes, world trade in cereals is forecast to remain near the 2022/23 level. 

An expected decline in global wheat trade is foreseen to offset predicted increases in the world trade of coarse grains and rice. 

That’s all, thank you.

We wish you a nice day and a good weekend.

 Author: Sandro F. Puglisi

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