WORLDWIDE WHEAT PRODUCTION FORECAST
USDA lowered global wheat production by 2.0 million mt to 792.4 million mt (775.8 million mt last year).
Total wheat supply was reduced to 1,082.6 million mt, but is still 7.6 million mt more than last year.
So, there will be lots of wheat available also in the ‘21/22 season but with some quality concerns.
Particulary, USDA lowered global springwheat production.
US spring wheat reduced by 41% than last year.
Average yields are expected to fall, the lowest yield since 2002.
Production is down in Montana, NorthDakota, and SouthDakota where y/y production is expected to fall 49%, 42%, and 51% respectively
USDA put US HRS production down 42% from last year.
83% percent of the crop has headed.
US spring wheat conditions fell to 11% Gd/Ex.
Last week, USDA lowered also Russian spring wheat production.
However, USDA revision in spring wheat does not capture the decrease in Canada and Kazakhstan.
In fact, Kazakhstan was lowered by 1.0 million mt to 13.0 million mt.
The Saskactchewan crop is rated as 25% Gd/Ex as of July 12th having lost 33 points over the past two weeks.
37% percent of the crop is rated as poor to very poor.
In Alberta, 39% of the crop is Gd/Ex, down 32% from two weeks ago.
Consequentially, USDA will need to lower spring wheat supply even more in their next August report.
In this context, USDA expects Canadian (all) wheat exports to fall 18% from record ’20/21 exports to 23 million mt in ’21/22.
Meantime, Canadian wheat exports for week 49 were 166.9k mt.
This makes for a season total of 18.83 million mt, 2.09 million mt (12%)more than last year.
About durumwheat conditions in Saskactchewan fell 33 points from two weeks ago.
Now, just 12% of the crop is in “good” condition.
In Alberta, the crop lost 15 points over the past two weeks and is now 33% Gd/Ex.
US durum conditions worsened last week as ratings in North Dakota and Montana fell to 45% Gd/Ex (-2% wk/wk) and 30% Gd/Ex (-10% wk/wk) respectively.
The North Dakota crop is 69% headed while the Montana crop is 48% headed.
USDA put US durum production down to 37.2 million bu (1.0 million mt), down 46% from L.Y..
Most of the decline in production is from North Dakota and Montana where yields are expected to fall from 39 bu/ac l. y. to 22 bu/ac this year.
Average yields are expected to fall 15.6 bu/ac from l. y. to 25.8 bu/ac..
Canadian durum exports for week 49 were 154.5k mt for a season total of 5.77 million mt, 19% (921k mt) more than last year.
Durum exports will be down next year from low supply.
Small US stocks, low US acreage, and a struggling US crop will increase US durum imports.
Meanwhile, Canadian crop also is under extreme pressure.
The combination of these have created very strong bids.