In its World Markets and Trade report released earlier this month, USDA said global durum supplies were expected to be thin this year, with Canadian and US durum exports plummeting to their lowest since 1964-65.
Because of drought, USDA estimates the US durum crop will be down 50pc from last year to 900,000t.
Canada consistently leads not only as the top global durum producer but also the largest exporter.
In 2020-21, Canada exported nearly 6Mt of durum, 90pc of its crop, and its production and exports are expected to fall at least 10pc in the current marketing year because of its drought-affected yields.
The US exported 600,000t in 2020-21, mostly to Europe and North Africa, and its exports are forecast to fall to 400,000t in 2021-22.
EU durum production is forecast to rise 7pc to 7.7Mt in 2021-22, while Mexico’s crop is seen as up 9pc to 1.3Mt.
Combined, the EU and Mexico increases will not be sufficient to offset North America’s decline.
Italy, the world’s top pasta-producing country, continues to demand imported durum to re-export it as pasta, and imported nearly 2Mt of durum from Canada and the US in 2020-21.
Turkey, another major pasta producer, sources nearly half of its imported durum from Canada.
North African countries, meanwhile, consume durum for both semolina milling and pasta production.
Morocco and Algeria primarily source durum from Canada, and their imports are expected to diminish significantly in 2021-22.
Additionally, Morocco’s domestic wheat production has nearly tripled from the previous year, easing some of its durum supply issues.
