Corn prices climbed back to the best levels in 7-and-a-half years yesterday amid bullish expectations for Tuesday morning’s monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report from USDA.
Traders, indeed, expect US domestic stocks to slim down even more, while rainy weather in South America has disrupted some field activity there.
Those factors helped corn prices move nearly 3% higher, with soybeans up around 1.5% today.
Frigid weather in the Midwest and Plains has been supportive for wheat prices, meantime, with most contracts trending around 2.5% higher.
This week, indeed, should feature plenty of bitterly cold temperatures, with sharply colder-than-normal conditions.
So, seems traders are more than ready to see USDA’s next batch of supply and demand data today, and the consensus is that U.S. corn ending stocks could drop another 160 million bushels below January’s tally, to 1.392 billion bushels.
However, uncertainty going into today’s report will likely see markets take some more risk off in the next 24 hours.
In the meantime, were released corn US export inspections that moved 41% above last week’s tally to reach 62.1 million bushels for the week ending February 4.
Japan was the No. 1 destination, with 12.4 million bushels.
Cumulative totals for the 2020/21 marketing year are still close to doubling last year’s pace, with 844.5 million bushels.
On the contrary, soybean export inspections trended 6% lower week-over-week, to 66.2 million bushels.
China accounted for nearly half of that total, with 32.2 million bushels.
Cumulative totals for the 2020/21 marketing year have climbed far beyond last year’s pace, reaching 1.807 billion bushels.
Wheat export inspections saw a moderate week-over-week improvement, moving to 16.2 million bushels.
Mexico was the No. 1 destination, with 4.0 million bushels.
Cumulative totals for the 2020/21 marketing year remain slightly behind last year’s pace, with 624.8 million bushels.
However, even if US exports inspection data are very good, we can’t say the same for European Union.
Per the latest data from the European Commission out earlier yesterday, indeed, European Union corn imports for the 2020/21 marketing year are at 393.7 million bushels through February 7, which is tracking 27.2% below last year’s pace so far.
European Union soybean imports for the 2020/21 marketing year have reached 328.9 million bushels through February 7, which is a 5.7% improvement versus last year’s pace, so far.
In contrast, EU soymeal imports are down 9.9% year-over-year, with EU canola imports also trending 0.9% lower from a year ago.
European Union soft wheat exports for the 2020/21 marketing year reached 580.9 million bushels through February 7, which is 16.2% below last year’s pace so far.
EU barley exports are also trending 6.5% lower year-over-year, with 203.5 million bushels.
Russian wheat exports jumped 20.9% higher year-over-year in 2020, reaching 1.415 billion bushels last year, per the country’s Federal Customs Service.
China sold another 63.2 million bushels of its state wheat reserves on auction today, which was 42.7% of the total amount for sale.
Japan issued a regular tender to purchase 3.2 million bushels of food-quality wheat from the United States and Canada that closes later this week. Of the total, 58% is expected to be sourced from the U.S.
The grain is for shipment between March 21 and April 20.
The Philippines issued an international tender to purchase nearly 8.5 million bushels of animal feed wheat, which closes on Tuesday.
The grain will likely be sourced from Europe, the Black Sea region or Australia, and is for shipment between April and June.
Yesterday, there was only a US sales flashes had 102,000t of corn to unknown destination for the old crop.
Chinese New Year this year is on Friday, and the week of holidays from the 11-17 February will shut down most of the country.
Some are expecting to see more sales business in the next few days in a rush to get it across the line before the holidays.
On the contrary, Monday’s Australian markets were quiet and largely unchanged from last week.
Trade buying interest retreated again, and logistics trade has continued to tick over.
We will see how the markets close at the end of today’s sessions.
