Wheat remained firm on friday, instead, oilseeds and corn weakened.
The Russian authorities, in fact, decided Friday on a further action about export taxes on cereals and, as a result, within the framework of the 17.5 Mt quota of cereals exportable between 15 February and 30 June, the following taxes will be applied:
– From 15 February: 25 €/t in wheat as announced in mid-December.
– From 1 March to 30 June: 50 €/t in wheat.
– From 15 March to 30 June: 25 €/t in corn and 10 €/t in barley.
Now, traders are wondering if markets have reached a level where the demand could slowdown as reflected by the cancellation of the last wheat Egyptian tender or still continuing go on higer.
In China, the demand remains strong; local feed manufacturers have immediately subscribed to the state reserves wheat auctions, even if US weekly soybean crush volume came in at 183.2 mbu – nearly 2 mbu below most expectations.
However, new flash sales had 110,000t of old crop corn to Mexico and 318,000t new crop beans to unknown destination, expected to be China.
In add, weather maps are still fairly dry for southern Argentine soybean areas even each bit of moisture adds hope.
Soybean harvest work is progressing in Brazil (Mato Grosso) and buyers are eagerly waiting for the first deliveries.
In corn, planting conditions in Brazil, which contributes just over 100 million tonnes to world production, will need to be closely monitored.
On the Black Sea area, the cold snap across the Volga is set to continue for the start of the first part of this week before some warmer weather pushes up into next week with a bit of moisture following.
In Australia, the inland storm system that was flirting around on the maps from last week has been entire cut in more recent runs, with dry weather across the country into the two-week forecasts.
So, international markets are still supported by a strong buying dynamic in corn and soybean and wether maps conditions.
And this, obviously contributes to the strength of world and European prices.
Thursday and Friday, only rapeseed markets retreated, mainly due to the expiry of February options.
Today, Aussie domestic markets are looking stronger, to start the morning with the end of week rally and Russian tax changes supporting wheat.
US markets, instead, are closed today due to Martin Luther King Day and President-elect Biden will be inaugurated only on Wednesday.
Debates about the stimulus measures are widespread in the media but nothing concrete can happen on the political side until at least the end of the week.
In add, corona deaths have continued to surge in the US, approaching 400k, adding even more pressure to the incoming Biden administration.
However, the Dollar is confirming its better orientation and is dealing at 1.2070 vs. Euro and 73.70 vs. Rouble.
Prices’ evolution need closely monitored in coming days, also by virtue of the fact that, in a letter sent to the Union of Cereal Exporters, the Ministry of Agriculture has announced its intention of not reducing export duties on wheat to 0% after 30 June.
We will see today evolutions of Euopropean market.
