US Agency tonight will report on grain stocks and winter wheat acreage estimates.
Surveyed estimates are calling for a 35 million bushels (mbu) reduction in bean ending stocks and a 100mbu reduction in corn.
Winter wheat acreage ideas have wide ranges but mostly towards a ~200,000 acre increase in SRW, ~800,000 in HRW for a total winter wheat planted figure near 31.5 million acres.
So, yesterday, markets were puzzled between bullish elements and risks of higher volatility caused also by to rumours about an increase in the Russian export tax that did the rounds of the world after comments to the news from a grain union member there – talk of doubling it to €50/t.
Russian domestic prices have come under pressure with the tax, but the global rally has implicitly offset two thirds or so of the €25/t tax already and the government is reportedly looking to put more pressure on interior prices.
In addiction, Egypt announced last night its decision to launch a wheat tender for shipments between February 18 and March 5.
It is likely to be an expensive tender given the moves on the board and cash.
Turkey’s wheat tender has also been officially announced, with offers due next Tuesday.
Coaster markets reportedly are slow today with many just back from the holiday due to Orthodox New Year, but more activity should pick up this week.
Ocean bulk freight markets kicked up hard to start the week, with lots of late Jan and F/M charters reportedly trading.
In Argentina producers continue to express their discontent by making a retention on sale despite the relaxation of corn export rules now capped at 30.000 t per day.
It looks insufficient and penalizing for local operators.
On the international scene, we can note another sale of 132.000 t of US soybean toward China and 108.500 t of corn to Colombia, both for 20/21.
Regular export inspections were about as expected, with 1.1 million tonnes (Mt) of corn, 1.8Mt of beans (1Mt of which China), 279,000t of wheat, and 133,000t of milo (almost 100% China).
However, we have seen a slight decline in Chicago prices yesterday as traders were taking profits ahead of tonight’s US Agency report.
In fact, even if Argentine weather maps are still holding dry for southern bean areas into next week, there’s still some good moisture forecast for northern zones but models not improving at all in the south.
We note, in add, some beneficial rains on the US plains, but we must closely monitor also the fall in temperatures expected over the next few days in the Black Sea basin.
In fact, a turn back to cold weather across the Black Sea region has brought out concerns, once again, about winter kill in Ukraine and Russia.
It’s not unusual for this time of year to have cold shocks, but warm weather has hit snow cover, and worries about the damage to unprotected crops.
On sanitary hand, Global confirmed coronavirus cases have pushed over 90 million (far higher if you count the untested ones) as hotspots surged once again in Europe… raising an ongoing flag about economic recovery ideas.
So, in corn, two indicators will be closely monitored: US exports and ethanol consumption.
While, in soybeans, traders will pay a great attention to Brazilian crop estimate.
In addiction, it would not be surprising to see the US Ag showing a slight upward revision of Russian and Australian wheat production.
In this context, indeed, yesterday, funds were net sellers for 12,500 lots of corn, 4,500 lots of soybeans and 3,500 lots of wheat,
and Chicago wheat March contract was down US4 c/bu to 634.75c;
the Kansas wheat March contract was down 0.75c/bu to 594c;
the Minneapolis wheat March contract was down 1.75c/bu to 606c; the MATIF wheat March contract was up €1.25/t to €218;
the corn March contract was down 4c/bu to 492.25c;
the soybeans March contract was down 2.25c/bu to 1372.5c;
the Winnipeg canola March contract was up C$7.60/t to $672.80;
the MATIF rapeseed Feb contract was unchanged at €440.
Palm oil corrected downwards this morning in Kuala Lumpur following a 30% drop in exports in the first 10 days of January compared to the same period in December.
The crude oil remains steady, posted this morning at 52.50 $/barrel in New York.
The dollar is fairly stable at 1.2140 against the euro and 74.50 against the rouble.
The US dollar index strengthened to 90.4.
