Chicago fly, even Euronext accelerates
Euronext accelerated again Tuesday evening in the wake of the flight from Chicago.
European rapeseed in particular came close to 430 € / t, taking advantage of the soaring American soybean.
Thus, it is confirmed, the start of the year is marked by a rise in agricultural markets, firstly, in the context of export taxes in Russia decided from 15 February, and then Argentina, which has decided to block its corn exports until the end of February.
In addition, a water deficit persists mainly in Argentina, leading to fears of a downward revision of corn production, estimated in the latest USA report at 48 Mt, a figure considered by analysts to be very optimistic.
The first Brazilian harvests confirm the concerns after particularly dry climatic conditions observed in recent months in the country.
As a result, export restrictions and this worrying start to the soybean harvest in Brazil are prompting a further surge in prices.
Jordan bought 60,000 t of feed barley yesterday and is re-tendering the same commodity.
Turkey also launched a tender for 155,000 t of feed barley and 155,000 t of corn.
Activity on the physical market in Europe for the moment remains weak and has not really picked up after the holidays.
It will be important to monitor whether Algeria returns to wheat purchases after buying only 300,000 t last week.
It will also be important to follow China’s attitude at the beginning of the year.
For the moment it is Chicago who leads the markets with its uncertainties about the next South American harvest.
So, Chicago prices for all products rose sharply, with corn and soybeans continuing to lead the way.
As we just said in fact, traders expect the downward revision of production estimates for corn and soybeans in Argentina, and fhe first harvesting operations have begun in northern Mato Grosso but it is too early to draw conclusions.
From the Black Sea area, we must note, that these origins appreciate particularly quickly in front of buyers from North Africa and the Middle East, who have to find new sources of supply.
Wheat is benefiting from the great firmness of corn, and continues to rely on the implementation of the Russian export tax next month.
Weather conditions in the Black Sea area remain humid and warm for the season.
In the south of Ukraine, the temperature was rising above 10°C in the middle of the day, in the Russian Kuban, it was close to +15°C.
Temperatures will gradually drop over the next few days with the arrival of a cold snap from the east.
This cold wave is expected for the middle of next week with -10°C over a large part of Ukraine and the southern district of Russia, -20°C in the Russian centre and the Volga and up to -25°C in the Urals.
The precipitation expected over the next 15 days will be higher than the normal.
Against this backdrop yesterday, funds remained buoyed with net purchases of 25,000 lots of corn, 30,000 lots of soybeans and 11,500 lots of wheat.
The dollar continues its decline against the euro posting this morning at 1.2300.
It evolves little against the ruble at 74.20.
Crude oil is progressing while the OPEC members are in a meeting and Saudi Arabia has decided to reduce its production by 1 Mbpd to support the prices.
In New York this morning, the barrel of crude oil was at 50$.
