Yesterday’s prices were slightly higher in closing for all products as Chicago, to Paris.
The US dollar index firmed to 90.6, although traded volumes are still limited at this period of the holiday break.
The dollar was at 1.2190 this morning against the euro and at 75.80 against the ruble.
It should be remembered that Euronext and the CME will only open for half a session tomorrow, 24 December, and will close on 25 December.
So, the operators look to the international scene to find some key market elements.
US export sales data are due out tomorrow there, a day early, on account of the holiday.
China’s COFCO made statements to the news the other day that they are expecting a 100 million tonnes bean import program there.
However, Jordan, which had launched a call for tenders for 120,000 t of feed barley, has just cancelled it.
American Petroleum Institute crude stocks figures surprised markets last night with stocks up 2.7 million barrels, contrary to ideas stocks could drop up to 3 million.
Weak demand remains the name of the game in oil right now, and gasoline in particular has seen heavy stocks and flow back into ethanol markets.
Energy Information Agency data will be out tonight, with ideas about production cuts potentially beginning to work through, though the last few weeks of figures have shown nothing in that direction.
So, the crude oil is decreasing more and more, in the context of the health crisis too far from being solved.
The vaccination will show real improvements only in several months.
The stimulus bill in the US still has yet to be signed by President Trump.
Despite apparent delays on the logistics of actually sending the formal copy to him, markets are expecting his signature without any complaints.
On the weather market hand, South American crop ideas continue to float around, with various estimates about just how much stress has impacted the soybean crops.
Most of the worry has shifted heavily to Argentina, although many are hedging their concerns a little after some showers late in the weekend.
Black Sea weather maps are largely unchanged, and the weather conditions over the main winter crop production areas for the next 15 days should not give rise to any new concerns for production potential.
In Ukraine, the temperature is expected to remain 5°C above seasonal averages during the winter break.
In Russia, the snow is expected in the Volga and Ural from the end of the week. This should provide additional protection for crops before the drop of temperatures down to -15°C.
Over the next 10 days, an average of 20-25 mm of precipitation is expected in the eastern wheat-producing regions of the country, while water reserves remain generally low for this time of year.
So, Black Sea cash markets are quieting down there as they are looking to the extended holiday window; in fact, after global markets will shut for Christmas/New Year, holidays for celebration of Orthodox Christmas will follow.
Rains in northern Australia came in well above forecasts, with 50+ mm.
Forecasts are still calling for some more coastal showers into early next week there, but otherwise the system is past.
Aussie domestic markets have seen a little support from the global moves, but currently it’s all about execution and interior logistics on the east coast.
In Great Britain, the British Minister of Agriculture has posted a 2020 wheat harvest at 9.66 Mt against a little more than 10 Mt estimated two months ago.
Barley production has also been revised downwards to 8.12 Mt compared to 8.36 Mt estimated in October.
Rapeseed production fell the most to 1.04 Mt, down more than 40% from last year.
So, inthis context, yesterday in Chicago funds were net buyers yesterday for 12,500 lots of corn, 5,000 lots of soybeans and 4,500 lots of wheat.
Overall, as the end of the year approaches, the funds are slightly long in wheat, but very long in corn and soybeans, reflecting the current global tension on these two products.
In fact, in the Argentine port and crush, strikes continue.
A new vote is being held today, but no indications of any resolution yet.
Prices are supported also by the doubts about soybean production in Brazil after the water deficit episode of recent months.
And canola continues to rise, still close to its highest levels in seven years, while rapeseed is in a relatively narrow range, but at the peak of the season.
In cereals market, the export taxes decided by Russia from 15 February, are also supporting prices.
