In Chicago yesterday, prices increased significantly.
Macro markets continued to see support on indications of more stimulus, and the US dollar index weakened to 89.7.
So, up we go again – optimism taking the reins across the board as demand ideas hold up and availability worries work back in.
Infact, recent limited rains have not eased the persisting hydric deficit.
Forecasts for rain in Brazil are definitely optimistic with near-full coverage across the soybean belt, but the bulls are wondering if it will be too little too late to save crops in some areas.
Weather conditions in Argentina remain dry.
As a result of this water deficit, soybean sowing in Argentina is behind schedule, with 67.8 per cent achieved compared with 70.3 per cent last year to date.
From this, yesterday the soybean broke the 12 $/bushel psychological threshold to deal at a 6-year high!
Canola prices are at a 7-year high.
Winnipeg blew the lights out with a 2pc jump, as bean oil spikedand palm oil continue to progress.
The rapeseed is following this trend but in limited proportions.
To justify the rally it can be mentioned the buoyant US weekly export pace too in addiction to some fears about the next crop in Brazil.
This week, infact, the export sales of corn, soybean and wheat have all been on the top of traders’ expectations and sit at 540,000t of wheat, 1.9 million tonnes (Mt) of corn, and 900,000t of soybeans – stronger than expected for row crops.
New-crop area decisions in the US are starting to draw attention away from South America and towards next year’s demand.
Rumours exist of more US boatloads sold overnight to China and, if Chinese demand continues into 2021, it’s a solid squeeze scenario for all grains.
Chinese buyers are in for some new- crop too, with a soybean panamax sold for 2021-22, while sorghum sales just hit 325,000t, almost all of it to China obviusly.
Argentina’s Bolsa de Cereales cut its local wheat estimate by 200,000t to 16.5Mt against 16.7 million tonnes previously and 19.5 million tonnes a year earlier.
Argentina would thus experience its second worst harvest in 10 years and as harvest moves along there the results do little to bring encouragement.
On the international scene, Jordan launched a feed barley tender.
Cut to Turkish wheat import duties put in place in October were extended again until the end of April, when the local new crop will start to arrive.
On the supply side, yesterday, the European Commission revised up its 2020’s wheat production estimation at 116.1 Mt vs. 115.8 Mt seen last month.
The corn output has been also increased to 62.5 Mt vs. 60.2 Mt.
Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Thursday that the Russian grain harvest could reach 134 million tonnes in 2020, during his traditional end-of-year press conference. Moscow said last week that this year’s harvest would exceed 131 million tonnes, approaching the historic level reached in 2017 (135.5 million tonnes).
However, in Russia, exporters are struggling to obtain the export certificates from customs before the implementation of duties planned for the 15th of Feb.
Complaints coming out of Russia about delays in documentation have been spurring some to pencil down exports further for the first half of 2021.
And thi paperwork delays there are far from uncommon, and bringing back some flashbacks to the last export tax, where unknowns on the ruble levels at settlement added further volatility.
After more than a year and a half without a Ministry of Agriculture, whose activities were placed under the supervision of the Ministry of Economic Development, Ukraine has yesterday appointed its new Minister of Agriculture: Roman Leshchenko.
He was previously in charge of the Land Registry Department.
The restoration of the Ministry is crucial with the prospect of the first stage of the land market liberalisation process that is scheduled for 1 July.
From his first speech, it is clear that the creation of added value will be one of the challenges during his mandate.
From the Austarlia, Aussie weather maps continue to call for more rain in northern New South Wales into the weekend, and southern Queensland next week.
Rain so far has been fairly patchy and more weather-damaged crops are coming off, but the tonnage is low relative to the size of the crop so, growers are leaving their lowest-quality grain to be harvested last.
In this context, wheat and corn closed more than 1pc firmer on Chicago, and the funds were net buyers for 22,500 lots of corn, 14,500 lots of soybeans and 9,000 lots of wheat.
The Dollar remains weak against most of currencies.
The greenback is dealing at 1.2240 vs. Euro and 73.10 vs. Rouble.
The Aussie dollar strength continues with the weaker USD letting the Aussie push over 76 cents.
The crude oil in NY is dealing at 48.20 $/b, its highest level for last 9 months.
