US grain market were mixed but mostly higher yesterday.
Wheat prices, closed between 0.5% and 1% higher.
Soybeans were also in the green but only added meager gains of around 0.25%.
Corn struggled once more, in contrast, finishing the session slightly in the red.
On macro markets, both Brent and WTI jumped more than 5% on Monday, after marking their biggest week of losses in more than nine months last week, helped by a weaker U.S. dollar that is licking its wounds, after yesterday has had its sharpest down in one- day, since May.
Additionally, oil prices rose also this morning, after the U.S. Food and Drug Administration granted full approval to the COVID-19 vaccine developed by Pfizer and BioNTech, a move that could accelerate inoculations in the United States.
Thus Brent crude oil futures gained 21 cents, or 0.3%, to $68.96 a barrel by 04:54 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures increased by 14 cents, or 0.2%, to $65.78 a barrel.
Ditto on the financial side.
Indeed, on Wall Street Nasdaq and S&P 500 futures both rose 0.15% with the Nasdaq that closed at a new record.
The Dow firmed by 216 points trading to 35,356.
Wall Street’s strength underpinned sentiment in Asia with a bounce in China’s tech sector that led Asian stocks higher on Tuesday.
Thus, MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan rallied 1.3%, with Japan and South Korean indexes jumping 1%.
Australia shares were up 0.2% and Taiwan stocks rose 0.6%.
European stocks markets also were set for a strong opening, with Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 0.19% and German DAX futures gaining 0.16%.
Coming back on grains market, NOAA’s latest 72-hour cumulative precipitation map shows the possibility for variable rains between this morning and Friday.
South Dakota, southern Minnesota and Wisconsin have the best chance to see as much as 1” later this week.
The agency’s 8-to-14-day outlook predicts seasonally wet weather for the upper Midwest and some of the eastern Corn Belt between August 30 and September 5, with seasonally normal conditions likely for much of the central U.S.
Meantime, the USDA lowered the corn good-to-excellent rating another 2pc to 60pc.
Beans were also lowered by 1pc to 56pc.
The spring wheat harvests are 77% complete against 58% last week and 55% on the 5-year average.
Meantime, the gap between the USDA condition rating for row crops and independent crop forecasters is getting wider.
The ProFarmer Tour has indeed announced potential yields significantly higher than the USDA figures published in early August.
Ultimately the corn market is now about the demand side.
About that, weekly export inspections met expectations for corn and soybeans, but exceeded expectations for wheat.
Corn export inspections indeed, reached 724.784 t last week, which was down 7% from a week ago but was also near the middle of trade estimates.
China was the No. 1 destination.
Soybean export inspections slid moderately lower week-over-week, to 214.061 t, however, also in this case, was close to the middle of trade guesses.
China led all destinations.
Wheat export inspections , meantime, saw moderate week-over-week gains, moving to 657.854.
That was better than all analyst estimates.
China was the No. 1 destination.
Waning ethanol production in recent weeks remains a concern.
Ultimately, as we can image, China and EPA in this context will play a key roul.
In this context, corn basis bids softened across half a dozen Midwestern locations yesterday, falling as much as 15 cents lower at an Illinois processor and an Illinois river terminal.
An Indiana ethanol plant bucked the overall trend after jumping 25 cents higher.
Soybean basis bids slumped 5 to 15 cents lower at two interior river terminals while climbing 20 cents higher at an Iowa processor and holding steady elsewhere across the central U.S..
From South America, Brazil’s corn harvest is moving along, with 79% of the country’s 2020/21 second corn crop now complete, according to the AgRural consultancy.
And 4% of the country’s 2021/22 corn crop has now been planted, AgRural reports.
On European market, the European agency MARS is revising its estimate of average yields for Europe in soft wheat downwards to 5.98 t / ha against 6.05 estimated last month.
It nevertheless revises upwards barley yields, all varieties combined, to 4.99 t / ha against 4.96 estimated last month.
In corn, future yields are posted at 7.90 t / ha against 7.88 estimated last month.
Finally, in rapeseed, the average yield is 3.21 t / ha against 3.19 last month.
In Germany, cash premiums in Hamburg remained at high levels reached late last week on strong export demand and expectations of more German overseas sales following France’s new crop quality problems.
A fall in the average quality of France’s soft wheat harvest this year will lead to an increase in flour prices linked to additional work for millers to sort good grains from poor ones, a senior member of French millers group ANMF said on Monday.
In this context, the surge in oil has boosted rapeseed, while European wheat prices are also benefiting from a surge in international demand.
Standard 12% protein wheat for September delivery in Hamburg was offered for sale little changed at around 10 euros over Paris December.
Buyers were seeking around 9 euros over.
Corn, for its part, ended up in negative territory, also weighed down by American production potential.
From the Black Sea basin, Russia updated its harvest progress report which went missing for a few weeks.
Extrapolating the report would give a 74Mt-type wheat production number, slightly over the USDA 72.5Mt.
The mystery surrounding Russian production and price action continues.
According to the Ministry of Agriculture, Russia would have harvested 62.25 million tonnes of wheat as of 23 August on an area of 19.9 million hectares.
The average yield would be 3.13 t / ha against 3.58 t / ha last year to date.
The Russian government indicated they would produce around 127Mt of grain.
On the other hand, Russian wheat exports are slowing down to 860,000 t last week against 930,000 t the previous week and 1.1 million tonnes two weeks ago.
Meantime, Russian wheat prices continue to rise in a context of retention of sales by producers and a downward revision of production.
The prices thus come to test the psychological threshold of 300 usd / t in fob basis.
From Australia the rain event has come in a timely manner for growers, widespread rains across NSW cropping areas with upwards to 30mm falling and recorded at Dubbo in the past 24hrs.
Scattered showers also pushed through SA yesterday, topping up their moisture profile, which continues to boost the season and build yield potential into cereals.
Meantime, local markets started the week off relatively unchanged from the previous week on old and new crop.
However, new season canola bids came off A$10-13/t with offshore oilseed markets drifting lower.
Delivered wheat markets into Geelong/Melbourne were bid $360/t throughout the day for ASW1.
H2 markets along the east coast, bid side, were $370/t delivered back into the mills and packers for Jan-plus-carry 2022.
We continue to see export demand pushing along up till the end of Oct, moreso on barley through Vic/NSW where there is still available stock to access and be moved over the coming months.
Old crop track markets for barley have been trading around $270/t in Victoria, meantime.
Internationally, private exporters reported to USDA the sale of 458,600 t of corn to Mexico.
Turkey, for its part, confirmed that it had purchased 245,000 t of feed barley on its Friday tender.
Pakistan has received multiple offers in its tender to purchase 400.000 t of wheat, which closed yesterday.
The country is still considering offers at this time.
Mauritius (a tiny African island east of Madagascar) issued an international tender to purchase 1.7 million bushels of wheat flour from optional origins that closes September 21.
Shipment is requested throughout 2022.
We wish you a good day.
