US farm markets were mixed once again yesterday.
Corn prices trended moderately higher with nearby contracts more than 1.75% higher by the close.
Spring wheat found fractional gains.
Meanwhile soybeans finished with narrowly mixed results and winter wheat prices faded as much as 0.5% lower amid a choppy session.
On macro markets, energy futures bounced moderately higher, with crude oil gaining 1.25% this afternoon to make it just over $69 per barrel.
Gasoline rose nearly 2%, with diesel up around 1.4%.
On Wall St., the Dow tilted 272 points higher trading to 35.064, anchored by gains in the travel and energy sectors.
The U.S. Dollar softened slightly, meantime.
Coming back on grains market, weather maps for the Corn Belt are expanding the rain forecasts for the northern corn areas – with chances of over an inch now spreading into eastern Nebraska and Kansas in addition to the Iowa/IL/IN areas.
Markets are focused on where the USDA will peg corn and bean yields.
Just to remebers, the next WASDE report will be out a week from last night.
USDA no longer uses objective yield surveys in the August report for corn.
Objective survey yield data are used for the reports in Sept/Oct/Nov.
This estimate will be the first change from their early season model-driven figures and, without the objective yield survey, is based on a mixture of farmer surveys and remote observation data.
Meantime, IHS Markit Agribusiness updated its forecast for 2021 U.S. corn production, which it now predicts at 14.911 billion bushels, with average yields of 176.5 bushels per acre.
Ditto for 2021 U.S. soybean crop which now see a production of 4.464 billion bushels, with average yields hitting 51.5 bushels per acre.
US weekly export sales reported 0.3 million tonnes (Mt) wheat, 0.8Mt new crop corn and 0.4Mt new crop beans.
Outstanding old crop corn sales to unknown/China are still over 3Mt with almost exactly a month to go to execute or roll to new crop.
Milo/sorghum sales were near zero with mostly tonnage adjustments.
We also have seen a new season bean sales flash of 300,000 t to unknown.
Meantime, corn export shipments climbed 20% above the prior four-week average.
China accounted for the majority of the total.
Soybean export shipments dipped 4% below the prior four-week average.
Mexico was the No. 1 destination.
Wheat export shipments moved 12% higher week-over-week but inched 1% below the prior four-week average.
Mexico was the No. 1 destination.
Markets are discussing the destination China cancellations of two boats of old crop corn and one of beans.
They do not appear to have rolled to new crop.
Ethanol exports in June, meantime, reached 81.9 million gallons from 70.4 million the previous month.
That supported corn prices obviusly.
In this context, corn basis bids were largely unchanged across the central U.S. yesterday but did move as much as 2 cents lower at an Ohio elevator and 2 cents higher at an Illinois river terminal.
Soybean basis bids jumped 73 cents higher at an Illinois river terminal and dropped as much as 10 cents lower at an Illinois processor.
Most other Midwestern locations were steady to slightly soft.
From South America, the high temperatures in Argentina are disrupting the sowing of wheat, the production of which could drop below 20 million tonnes according to the Buenos Aires stock exchange.
Corn production remains, however, estimated unchanged at 48 million tonnes.
Meantime, Argentina’s trucker strikes have been called off once again.
Business are starting again although there are concerns about strikes resuming in a few days.
The lack of precipitation in Paraná also continues to limit the loading of barges to Argentinian ports.
The South of Brazil, for its part, is undergoing a new cold wave which may well start even more of a harvest which is already very bad.
On this wake, Brazil’s Agroconsult lowered its estimates for the country’s 2020/21 second corn crop by 6.7% from a previous forecast as the country continues to struggle through overly dry conditions.
The latest production estimate for the second corn crop fell to 2.398 billion bushels.
On this wake StoneX cut corn exports now seen at 17 MMT in 2020/21, down from 34.8 MMT in 2019/20.
On the other hand, Brazilian exporting agency Anec estimated 2021/22 soybean production at 144 MMT, with exports at 94.3 MMT (up from 85.5 MMT this season).
On European market, unfavorable weather conditions and sustained demand are pushing prices into the green.
Qualitative issues remain a source of concern, with great heterogeneity depending on harvest dates and varieties.
French and German potentials are thus regularly revised downwards.
On this wake Agreste downwarded French wheat production estimated at 36.69 million tons.
Rapeseed prices, on their parts, are finding again support in the strength of canola prices in Canada.
Meantime, soft wheat exports from EU in the 21/22 season that started in July had reached 962,949 tonnes (excl GB) by Aug. 1, data published by the European Commission showed on Tuesday.
That was down from 1.48mmt (incl GB) by the same week in 2020/21, the data showed.
From Turkey, wheat production is forecast to drop to 16.5 million tonnes in the 2021-22 marketing year compared to the USDA’s original estimate in April of 17.6 million tonnes
From Africa, Zimbabwe farmers have planted wheat on 66.435 hectares this winter, the third highest hectarage since independence and 50 percent more than last year, giving hope that Zimbabwe will hit self-sufficiency or get very close.
From the Black Sea basin, prices gave up a little ground yesterday in a context of cancellation of certain contracts.
Corn remains firm, with particularly good Chinese demand for Ukraine, where 6 to 7 million tonnes have already been contracted for the 2021/2022 campaign.
From Middle East, Saudi Arabia’s Minister of Finance and Chairman of Zakat, Tax and Customs Authority (ZATCA), Mohammad Al-Jadaan, issued a resolution on canceling import duty on wheat.
From the Middle Kingdom, the resurgence of cases of covid in China, worries the authorities who could quickly take new measures to counter the pandemic.
Meantime, China’s Henan province lost 380.000 ha of crops in July’s deadly rainfall.
From Australia, the RBA statement on monetary policy is due today.
New crop wheat markets saw some firmer bids at easy execution sites yesterday.
Canola markets were also firmer across the country last night with bids up by over $10 in places in WA.
Internationally, the FAO confirms that world food prices fell in July, after a drop already seen in June.
However, prices have increased by + 31% over one year.
Meantime, is growing more and more grain international demand.
Jordan did not respond to its call for tenders on feed barley, but, issued a new international tender to purchase 120.000 t of milling wheat from optional origins that closes August 11.
The grain is for shipment in February and March.
Tunisia issued an international tender to purchase 100,000 t of soft milling wheat and 100,000 t of animal feed barley from optional origins that closes today.
The grain is for shipment in August and September.
South Korea issued a tender to purchase nearly 168.000 t of milling wheat from optional origins, including the United States, which closes today.
The grain is for shipment in October if it is sourced from the U.S. or Canada; Australian-origin wheat is for shipment in December.
Japan purchased 3.4 million bushels of food-quality wheat from the United States and Canada in a regular tender that closed yesterday.
Of the total, 70% was sourced from the U.S. The grain is for shipment in October.
Bangladesh issued an international tender to purchase 50.000 t of milling wheat from optional origins that closes August 18.
The grain is for shipment 40 days after a contract is signed.
And with this, we wish you a good day.
