Most US grain contracts spilled into the red yesterday.
Winter wheat lost about 2.5%.
Soybeans fell 2%.
Corn was down around 1%.
Spring wheat prices, bucked the overall trend, moving around 0.5% higher.
On macro markets, oil prices are easing this morning but are poised to end the week largely steady after the rebound from the sharp drop that we have seen earlier in the week.
Prices of oil and other riskier assets, indeed, tumbled earlier in the week on concerns about the economic impact of surging COVID-19 cases of the Delta variant in the United States, Britain, Japan and elsewhere.
In this context, Brent crude futures fell 23 cents, or 0.3%, to $73.56 a barrel by 05.42 GMT, after jumping 2.2% yesterday.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures fell 23 cents, or 0.3%, to $71.68 a barrel, following a 2.3% gain on Thursday.
Meantime, US jobless claims increased to 419,000 this past week, versus analyst expectations of 350,000.
However, investors largely shook off bearish jobs data and pushed the Dow 25 points higher to 34,823.
Coming back on grains market, a large board sell-off occurred yesterday, but most people seeing this as a weather driven near term correction.
Moisture outlooks have improved a little across the northern US Corn Belt into early August.
Soybean yield hopes are improving slightly, the chance of moisture filling pods.
Spring wheat and canola crop concerns in the US and Canada still seeing ongoing discussion with the enduring heat wave.
Harvest is starting as hot weather brings on early maturity, but no real positive surprises so far on yields.
Meantime, regular US export sales had 0.47 million tonnes (Mt) of wheat, 0.05Mt of new crop corn.
Old crop corn saw net cancellations.
Destination China cancellations were 0.16Mt.
Beans export sales were 0.18Mt, new crop.
Milo/sorghum also saw a cut back with a cancelled Chinese panamax for old crop.
Corn export shipments dropped 22% below the prior four-week average.
Soybean export shipments slid 17% lower week-over-week and 19% below the prior four-week average.
Wheat export shipments improved 29% week-over-week.
In this context, corn basis bids firmed 2 to 12 cents higher at three interior river terminals Thursday while holding steady elsewhere across the central U.S..
Soybean basis bids were steady to soft across the central U.S. – particularly at Midwestern processors, where three locations dropped 5 to 10 cents lower.
On European market, the Germany farmers’ association DBV predicts winter barley production will increase to 9.3Mt this year with better yields coming off as harvest nears half complete and suggests flood impacts are very minimal in the grand scheme of things.
Harvest sites are accelerating also in France where a weather deterioration approaches again, that could lead to stormy and rainy conditions in the less advanced areas.
The progress of the soft wheat harvests still shows average and often disappointing yields.
Consultancy Strategie Grains, indeed, trimmed its estimates for France’s 2021 soft wheat production due to lower-than-expected yields in the country’s northwestern region.
Estimates are now between 37 million and 37.5 million tonnes, down from nearly 38 million tonnes forecasted last week.
France is Europe’s No. 1 wheat producer.
However, production volumes will nevertheless show a clear increase compared to last year.
This situation of course leads prices in this harvest period to run out of steam.
Consequentially, on Euronext, prices recorded a further decline yesterday after the recent highs observed at the start of the week.
In maize, prices also show a decline in the new harvest, thus adjusting in terms of price with feed straw cereals.
On Euronext, the prices of old-harvest corn are however still strong.
The August 2021 deadline is thus approaching its highs, thus erasing the decline observed since the beginning of June.
Rapeseed harvesting is progressing with good surprises reported in terms of yield.
Despite everything, the market remains tight and remains very influenced by the situation, particularly on the Canadian canola market.
So after a sharp decline during the day, rapeseed prices on Euronext closed the session up yesterday.
From the Black Sea basin, hotter weather maps for the eastern EU and Black Sea region gaining some focus with a few concerns building about adverse impacts to corn crops, though it is great weather for wheat/barley harvest.
Spring wheat areas in Russia also remain threatened by drought.
Meantime, USDA raised its estimates for Romanian wheat production, citing better-than-expected rainfall totals, moving it to 349.1 million bushels – a year-over-year increase of 58%, if realized.
In contrast, the severe thunderstorms observed in Ukraine are currently causing several difficulties due to overflowing rivers.
Harvesting should, in the most affected areas, slow down all the more as the risks of lodging were high on cereals.
The rising water levels are also impacting certain port facilities temporarily, without however for the time being really hampering the country’s loading activity.
The latest official statistics showed in Ukraine on July 1 an increase in wheat stock volumes to 1.74 Mt, an increase of + 4% compared to the previous year.
This volume was above all present among producers estimated at 1.18 Mt.
In corn, the volumes still stored also increased compared to July 2020 with 2.29 Mt in stock, i.e. + 13%.
On July 1, the stock at producers stood at 1.56 Mt. In barley, on the other hand, volumes fell compared to the previous year, reaching 1.07 Mt on July 1, in connection with sustained export activity.
From Australia. local markets were quiet yesterday with bids off a hair on the weaker boards for wheat and barley, but little activity.
Canola continuing to track global markets and would be looking to start today back up again slightly, after the overnight board move.
Extended run weather maps still flirting with another storm event for WA.
Internationally, South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp. has bought about 4,000 tonnes of soybeans free of genetically-modified organisms (GMOs) in an international tender for about 7,600 tones which closed on Wednesday.
In fact, one 4,000 tonnes consignment was purchased at an estimated $948.72 a tonne c&f from trading house SingSong for arrival between Sept. 10 and Oct. 20.
While offers for around 3,600 tonnes sought were rejected and no purchase made.
We wish you a good day.