The weather market continue on Chicago, as another round of rainy weather that is moving through the Corn Belt later this week, kicked off another round of technical selling yesterday that left corn prices mixed and soybean prices down almost 1% by the close.
Wheat contracts saw plenty of upside, in contrast, with gains ranging between 1.75% and 3%.
On macro markets, energy futures mostly saw modest gains with crude oil picked up 0.25% to climb just above $73 per barrel.
Diesel saw gains of nearly 0.5%.
Gasoline jumped almost 1.75% higher.
Equity markets remain posted at their all-time highs, although analysts are closely monitoring the Fed’s policy, which should increase rates in the medium term.
Meantime, on Wall St., the Dow slipped 71 points lower to 33,874, while the S&P 500 moved slightly higher to move just below all-time highs captured earlier this year.
The U.S. Dollar firmed fractionally.
Coming back on grains market, we have seen little developments, in a context where caution is required before the eagerly awaited report next week on the areas of corn and soybeans in the USA, that will published on June 30.
Meantime, was two figures out last night from private forecasters: around 37.6 million hectares (Mha) on corn, and 35M on soybeans.
In this context, corn prices were mixed amid an uneven round of technical maneuvering, with nearby contracts moved modestly higher on strong demand fundamentals, while September futures dropped 0.9% after favorable weather forecasts.
Also soybean prices saw moderate losses with traders are watching the short-term forecasts.
Meantime, wheat prices jumped substantially higher on healthy demand trends and pervasive dry weather in the Northern Plains, which spurred a round of technical buying.
Spring wheat prices continue to show the most upside for now after quality ratings suffered a ten-point drop this past week.
The US winter-wheat harvest is rolling along well, however, with some improved yield results coming off in the past few days around the showers and moisture delays.
Protein scales, however, with the larger yields not helping levels, and lots of 10-11 per cent protein reported.
In addition to the climate, operators will closely scrutinize the weekly export figures which will be published in the afternoon.
On the other hand, grains traveling the US railways added another 19,617 carloads last week.
Cumulative totals so far this year have reached 600,129 carloads, a 20.4% increase from a year ago.
Regular US weekly ethanol production was up 23,000 barrels to 1.05 million as stocks jumped 518,000 barrels to 21,100, its highest in several weeks, with growth in nearly all regions.
A new USDA sales flash had 330,000 tonnes of new-crop soybeans to China, confirming some prior rumors.
In this context, corn basis bids were mostly steady but showed some variability across a few Midwestern locations, moving as much as 10 cents higher at an Indiana ethanol plant and dropping as much as 12 cents lower at an Illinois processor.
Soybean basis bids held steady across the central U.S..
Farmer sales are expected to remain generally slow through the summer until supplies can be replenished at harvest.
On European market, grains fell back into their downward trend, under the weight of global supply.
Rapeseed, in contrast, made clear progress yesterday in the wake of other oils, and in particular canola with a water deficit observed in southern Canada, particularly in the two key states of Saskatchewan and Alberta.
In Europe also, the manufacture of biofuels is regaining strength with the end of the health crisis.
The USDA figures at 5.8 Mt the European consumption of rapeseed oil for the manufacture of biodiesel this year, an increase of 300 kt compared to last year.
The rise in crude oil prices also continues to provide support to the entire oil market.
The palm, in contrast, is showing a slight decline this morning in Kuala Lumpur.
From Black Sea basin, Russian consultancy SovEcon notably raised its estimate of the Russian wheat harvest by 2.2 Mt this year, to 84.6 Mt. citing increased acreage and generally favorable weather.
Russia is the world’s No. 1 wheat exporter.
In southern Russia, the first cuts of winter barley are starting a little late and are promising in this area.
The central region of the country remains in a water deficit, impacting the yield potential on spring wheat.
The “State Food and Grain Corporation of Ukraine” says it is ready to load for China in this new season 5 Mt of cereals including 3 Mt of corn and 2 Mt of so-called early cereals, namely mainly barley.
The Ukrainian public company has, in accordance with the demands of the Chinese counterpart, reinforced its installations at the ports of Odessa and Nikolaïev to load boats of 70,000 t.
The public body also has agreements with terminals to load up to 1 Mt from the port of Chornomorsk.
From the Middle kingdom, China’s state planner NDRC plans to investigate speculative buying and other activities that have caused a runup in grain prices.
“The working groups will learn more about … bulk commodity spot market transactions and carefully listen to feedback from midstream and downstream companies,” according to a statement. NDRC also plans to write up new rules concerning commodity price indexes to improve transparency.
China’s hog herd continues to improve, climbing 24% higher between January and May, per the country’s agriculture ministry, which asserts the country has nearly recovered from the ill effects of an African swine fever outbreak earlier this year.
From Australia, local markets getting a little more excitement yesterday as discussion about the Chinese wheat business does the rounds – a few different ideas about the details on the sales but still good business to see.
Otherwise domestic markets still ticking along in mostly execution mode, with stocks starting to draw down more as exports flow but a fairly limited window prior to new season harvest still left.
Parts of south-central New South Wales got more than 50 millimeters of rain overnight, with a cloud band cutting down across the Murrumbidgee, and north-central Victoria has seen 10-15mm for many, but less further west.
Forecasts still show a solid 25mm across central and parts of southern NSW, and a few concerns are popping up about waterlogging in some of the wetter areas.
On the international trade scenario, Ethiopia issued an international tender to purchase 400,000 t of milling wheat from optional origins that expires July 19.
The UN is assisting on this tender as the country battles with drought, insect infestations and other problems.
Taiwan issued an international tender to purchase 55,000 t of grade 1 milling wheat from the United States.
The deadline for submissions is on Thursday, and the grain is for shipment in August.
