Grain prices were mixed once again on yesterday on Chicago.
Winter wheat prices fell in a context in particular of harvest pressure.
Conversely, spring wheats are still showing firmness, moved more than 2% higher, faced with a real water deficit leading to a very low crop rating of 27% posted last Monday as good to excellent.
Corn prices are losing ground in a context where new rains are expected over part of the Corn Belt, as the critical pollination period approaches.
In spite soybeans found support in the rebound in vegetable oil prices, soybean futures tilted lower on the heels of relatively mild summer weather across much of the Midwest and Plains.
Consequentially, traders largely shrugged off deteriorating crop conditions, with the exception of spring wheat contracts.
Indeed, Minny held it’s own last night closing up 15.25¢.
KC -3 1/4¢, Chicago -10¢, and Matif down a quarter euro.
Corn was off 18 1/4¢ and beans -16¢ (Matif +4.25€, Winnipeg +$7.7) On macro markets, crude was off to $73.1 WTI / $74.8 Brent and the DOW up 68 points.
The USD has continued to weaken back off slightly, after the US Fed chairman made comments to the government there that they would wait until they’ve confirmed that excessive inflation is happening before raising rates.
Coming back on grains market, there are some rumour mill has Chinese buyers back for another hundred thousand to half a million tons of US beans – depending on whom you speak to.
No new export sales flashes yet though.
Meantime, corn basis bids were mostly steady but did show some variability after falling 5 to 10 cents lower at two Midwestern elevators while tilting 2 cents higher at an Illinois river terminal.
Also soybean basis bids held steady across most Midwestern locations but did boost 10 cents higher at an Iowa processor.
From South America, a recent Reuters poll of ten analysts suggest Brazil’s total corn harvest for the 2020/21 season could trend 8.5% below prior forecasts to around 3.7 billion bushels, due to ongoing drought concerns.
Brazil’s Anec lowered its forecasts for June soybean exports but still expects to see sales totaling around 404 million bushels this month.
Brazilian corn exports are expected to come in just below 5 million bushels in June, meantime.
On European market, grain prices changed little yesterday.
Only rapeseed was on the rise again in the wake of other vegetable oils.
Thunderstorms continue to rage in France, sometimes causing damage here and there.
Improvements are expected from tomorrow in France, allowing barley harvests to begin in the earliest areas.
From Black Sea basin, there’s more talk of damaged/off grade crops and disease problems in southern Russia and parts of Ukraine.
Overall volume still is to be seen, but discounts have held nice and wide for feed wheat.
Meantime, cash markets have remained fairly slow with the slow start to harvest, but activity is starting to pick up a bit as crops ripen and loadings approach for early boats.
In the Russian Kuban, namely in the Krasnodar and Stavropol oblasts, the first cuts of winter barley were observed.
The same is true in the Kherson region in Ukraine.
The dry and hot weather conditions will now allow cereals in these southern regions to mature quickly.
The first wheat should be threshed within a week.
From South East Asia, the palm this morning continues its rebound in Kuala Lumpur which should provide further support for rapeseed from the opening.
From Australia, local markets still fairly quiet with generally wide bid/offer spreads, although some old crop bids have picked up a tick with more interest to cover sales as the year wraps up.
The BOM’s still calling for 20-25mm across central NSW, and slightly less for central Victoria and coastal areas in SA.
The AUD continues to trade off the overall US dollar story globally, but the kick back up through yesterday/overnight isn’t helpful to grain market.
On the international trade scenario, China’s Sinograin is planning another auction on June 25 to sell nearly 717,000 bushels of corn that was initially imported from Ukraine.
This is the latest in a series of moves by China to curb rising domestic grain prices.
Egypt purchased 63,000 metric tons of soyoil and another 10,500 MT of sunflower oil in an international tender that recently closed.
The vegetable oils are for arrival in September.
Japan issued a regular tender to purchase 160,000 t of food-quality wheat from the United States and Canada, which closes later this week.
Of the total, 54% is expected to be sourced from the U.S..
Jordan launched a tender for 120,000 t of milling wheat.
The first sale of Russian wheat to Algeria questions the potential for new shipments to this country, a major destination for France.
Have a good day.
