All it took was a few rains and a longer-term weather forecast with temperatures falling slightly to put pressure yesterday, on the US markets.
September corn contracts dropped more than 5%.
Soybean futures losing around 2.5%.
Wheat losses were more muted, but some contracts were down more than 2% and only Chicago SRW futures ,avoided double-digit losses by the close.
On macro markets, oil prices are rosing on this morning, with Brent gaining for a fourth consecutive session, as the prospect of extra supply coming to the market soon from Iran faded with talks dragging on over the United States rejoining a nuclear agreement with Tehran.
Brent crude was up by 43 cents today in the opening, or 0.6%, at $73.29 a barrel by 0134 GMT, having risen 0.2% ysterday.
U.S. oil gained 41 cents today in the opening, or 0.6%, to $71.29 a barrel, having slipped 3 cents in the previous session.
Meantime, yesterday diesel dropped 0.3% and gasoline down nearly 0.5%.
Indirect discussions between the United States and Iran, along with other parties to the 2015 deal on Tehran’s nuclear programme, resumed on Saturday in Vienna and were described as “intense” by the European Union.
Investors eagerly await news from a Federal Reserve later this week and continue to fret over rising inflation and the possibility of higher interest rates.
Economists believe the so-called dot plot will lead to an increase in interest rates in 2023, although the bank is unlikely to announce a reduction in asset purchases until later this year.
So, markets expect no immediate changes to monetary policy, but with positioning heavily loaded against the dollar, investors are leery of any shift in tone that could spark a rally.
Meantime, Prime Minister Boris Johnson have had push back his plan to lift England’s restrictions for at least another four weeks.
Covid cases have been rising rapidly, fuelled by the highly transmissible variant, however the success of the vaccinations against the variants is slowing the rate.
On Monday, the British Government reported 7,742 new confirmed cases, one of the highest daily numbers since the end of February.
Around 62pc of the British population had received one shot, while about 45pc had two.
In this context on Wall St., the Dow faced losses until 219 points in the afternoon session, falling to 34,260, before to close down 86 lower points to 34,393 .
In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin was able to steady above $40,000 on Tuesday and is approaching its 200-day moving average – finding support from the promise of fresh investment from major backer MicroStrategy and from Elon Musk.
Tesla boss Musk on Sunday, indeed, flagged that the carmaker could resume transactions using the token if miners can use cleaner energy to process them.
Ether also got a small lift in sympathy with its bigger rival, and broke above its 20-day moving average to $2,593.40.
However, we think Ether have took advantges by Goldman Sachs Group plans to offer investors options and futures trading in ether , according to a report reserved.
Consequentially, Nasdaq composite gained 104 point higer to close at 14.174$, menwhile S&P 500 moved only 7 point higer to close at 4.255.
Meantime on this morning the dollar hovered near multi-week highs, drawing support from traders wary of a surprise from the U.S. Federal Reserve which is set to begin a two-day policy meeting.
The euro, indeed, perched at $1.2120, just above a one-month low of $1.2093 it hit last week.
The yen hit a seven-session low of 110.15 per dollar.
The U.S. dollar index =USD held near the top of its recent range at 90.512.
Coming back on US grains market, corn prices continue to show plenty of sensitivity to weather forecasts as the young crop tries to gain some positive momentum.
In fact, friendlier forecasts for the Corn Belt moving forward caused prices to sag on a round of technical selling with July corn futures that fell 25.75 cents to $6.5875, and September futures down 32.75 cents to $5.97.
Soybean prices also faced a round of technical selling after forecasts are expected to improve across the Midwest and Plains in the coming days.
Soybean prices closed around 2.5% lower amid a choppy session.
Wheat prices followed corn and soybeans lower on a round of technical selling.
Losses from individual contracts ranged between 1% and 2.4%, with spring wheat contracts facing the most downside.
Meantime, corn export inspections reached 1.544.031 tonne, for the week ending June 10, moving slightly above the prior week’s tally.
That was on the lower end of trade estimates.
Japan was the No. 1 destination.
Cumulative totals for the 2020/21 marketing year are still well above last year’s pace, with 30.797.777 tonne.
Soybean export inspections only came in around half of the prior week’s total, with 128.092 tonne.
That was also below the entire range of trade guesses.
Mexico led all destinations.
Cumulative totals for the 2020/21 marketing year remain far ahead of last year’s pace, with 36.231.175 tonne.
Wheat export inspections slipped slightly lower week-over-week, to 480,341 tonne.
That was still toward the upper end of trade guesses.
The Philippines topped all destinations.
Cumulative totals for the young 2021/22 marketing year, which began June 1, are at 799,558 tonne.
The crop condition/progress reports, released after the markets closed, are generally supportive today .
Indeed, corn conditions 68pc rated good-to-excellent (G/E) vs. 72pc last week & 71pc last year.
Soybean conditions 62pc G/E vs. 67pc last week & 72pc last year.
Spring wheat conditions at 37pc G/E, vs. 38pc last week and 81pc last year.
Barley conditions at 45pc G/E, vs. 43pc last week & 77pc last year.
Winter wheat harvested 4pc, vs. 2pc last week & 15pc ave.
Winter wheat conditions at 48pc G/E, vs 50pc last week & 50pc last year.
Lower temperatures and above average rainfall forecast for the drier parts of the corn belt and into the spring wheat areas were forecast and so the markets traded lower.
However, results will be possible to see only in the next report and until this event actually occurs, conditions in the belt will be the complete opposite, with high temperatures and very little precipitation.
Meantime, corn basis bids tilted 3 cents higher at a Nebraska processor and a penny higher at an Iowa river terminal while holding steady elsewhere across the central U.S..
Soybean basis bids tumbled 40 cents lower at an Illinois river terminal and softened 5 to 10 cents lower at three other Midwestern locations.
From South America, in Brazil, the first corn harvests begin in Mato Grosso.
It is too early with regard to only 1.9% of the areas harvested in this State to draw any conclusions.
Meantime, Brazil’s Abiove is holding its predictions steady for the country’s 2021 soybean production potential from previous estimates of 5.052 billion bushels.
The overall consensus among consultancies and governmental groups is showing increased confidence that Brazilian soybean production will top 5.0 billion bushels this season.
On European market, grain prices retreated sharply yesterday in the wake of Chicago.
Rapeseed, meanwhile, fell sharply yesterday in the wake of palm and canola.
The high temperatures observed at the start of the week should not have a major impact at this stage on the production potential of straw cereals.
Per the latest data from the European Commission, EU corn imports for the 2020/21 marketing year reached 13.92 million tonnes through June 13, trending significantly below last year’s pace so far when it standed at 19.07 million.
European Union soybean imports for the 2020/21 marketing year have reached 534.6 million bushels through June 13, which is trending slightly below last year’s levels so far.
EU soymeal imports are moderately below last year’s pace, with EU canola imports tracking slightly higher year-over-year.
Rapeseed imports at European level are displayed on June 13 at 6.04 million tonnes against 5.86 million last year to date.
Some analysts expect imports to exceed 7 million tonnes for the next season.
In Europe, 2020/21 soft wheat exports reached 24.88 million tonnes through June 13, facing a year-over-year decline of nearly 27% so far, as EU exported 33.94 million of common wheat last year.
EU barley exports are fractionally below last year’s pace, with 7.06 million tonnes against 7.17 million to date last year.
From Black Sea basin, Ukrainian farmers are approaching the end of the sowing of spring crops 2021-22, with more than 99% or 15.5 Mha (+200,000 ha vs last year) of the areas planted last week, according to official data.
Ukrainian farmers sowed 175,400 ha of spring wheat (vs 185,000 ha last year), while the area of spring barley reached 1.35 Mha, down from 1.52 Mha in 2020.
The corn and sunflower plantings are 100% complete.
Maize plantings reached 5.34 Mha, compared to 5.38 Mha last year, while the area under the sunflower is 287,000 ha higher than last year, amounting to 6.43 Mha .
Soybean planting was 99% complete, with nearly 1.39 Mha planted, down slightly from 1.41 Mha last year.
Aussie markets return locally here after the long weekend.
Wheat markets was a touch softer by the end of last week on new crop, while old crop continues to remain supportive as we have seen for the past month now.
Barley continues to gain momentum on the old crop with more buying demand for July/August slots.
Last Friday old crop barley finish the day out $280 bid delivered Geelong/Melbourne.
Eight days ahead look promising on the weather front for SA and Victoria with 10-20mm rain event forecast.
This will go a long way on the back of last week’s rainfall that was received.
GIWA released their June 2021 crop area estimate on Friday with above average yields flagged.
Total crop area planted in WA is up 5 per cent compared to the 2020 record.
On the international trade scenario, buyers are returning like Egypt, which yesterday launched a wheat tender for the period 21/31 August.
The first since the tax changes in Russia.
Tonigth we will see how the sessions close.
