Grain prices struggled through a choppy session yesterday on Chicago.
Soybeans eroded about 0.5% lower.
Meantime some wheat contracts dropped more than 1%.
While corn was the lone bright spot, pushing about 0.75% higher.
On macro markets, energy prices saw mild to moderate gains.
Indeed, crude oil tilted 0.25% higher.
Diesel rose 0.5%.
Gasoline jumping 1.5% higher.
Companies tied to the reopening of the economy (e.g. cruise lines, airlines, etc.) continue to perform strong, however, stocks were little changed on Wall St. with the Dow shifting only 10 points higher to 34,323.
The U.S. Dollar, meantime, firmed moderately.
Financial operators will be cautious this weekend before a long weekend in the US since the US markets will be closed Monday for Memorial Day.
Coming back on grains market, corn prices, after jolted lower during yesterday’s morning session, on the wake of reports that China may have cancelled some U.S. corn purchases, recovered on the close as some bargain buyers decided to enter in the fray.
In add, the market recovered at the end of the session, also because has know, that these cancellations could considered non-essential and fairly customary.
To date, US corn sales to China for the new season are estimated at 7 million tonnes, a record at this point in the year for a future season.
Ample rains expected across the central U.S. later this week minimized more gains.
In add, ethanol production retreated slightly for the week ending May 21, falling from the prior week’s daily average of 1.032 million barrels down to 1.011 million barrels, per the latest data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
Totals crested above a daily average of 1 million barrels for just the second time since the pre-pandemic era.
Meantime, US ethanol stockpiles declined to 18.98 million barrels for the week ending May 21, the first time below 19mba since December 2016, according to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) latest report, which supported corn prices.
Soybean prices, on the other hand, have struggled to find much positive momentum throughout the month of May, and yesterday was no different.
Yield-friendly weather forecasts have generated headwinds all week long.
In this context, corn basis bids were mostly steady but somewhat mixed, after dipping a penny lower at two Midwestern locations but firming as much as 10 cents higher at an Indiana ethanol plant.
Meantime, soybean basis bids were largely steady with a few mixed results across the Midwest.
Bids fell as much as 5 cents lower at an Illinois processor while firming as much as 2 cents at an Illinois river terminal.
Wheat prices continued to fell back into the red on another round of technical selling, largely spurred by rainy weather expected across the Great Plains this week.
There’s increased talk of damage due to excessive moisture throughout the HRW belt.
With harvest imminent, 10-day forecasts will become increasingly important given most traders’ balance sheets are assuming record HRW production.
Grains traveling the US nation’s, meantime, railways increased to 25,396 carloads last week, moving 16.1% higher compared to the same week in 2020.
Cumulative totals for 2021 are now at 509,364 carloads, tracking 23.2% higher year-over-year so far.
From South America, Brazil’s Anec made significant week-over-week reductions in its estimates for May soybean exports, falling nearly 8% to 547.5 million bushels.
The group slightly raised its May soymeal forecast to 1.9 million metric tons, meantime.
Brazilian corn exports are expected to be minimal this month, with an estimated 865,000 bushels.
Several grain ships were stranded in the Argentina’s Rosario area, the country’s largest agricultural hub, on Wednesday as marine workers demanding access to COVID-19 vaccines began a 48-hour walkout which began at midnight.
The workers said the measure was because of COVID-19 contagions and deaths in the industry and for “the failure of all the efforts we have been making before different national authorities” to take priority to be vaccinated.
Argentina exports the most soybean oil and flour in the world, as well as the third-most maize.
Agricultural and agro-industrial items account for almost 80pc of the country’s exports.
On european market, the volatility on the markets remains in order of the day.
However, yesterday we witnessed a close close to that of the day before on grains, pending new elements.
The European Commission has for its part supported a little more on the trend by raising its estimate of yield of soft wheat, to 5.91 t / ha, against 5.86 t / ha announced last month.
In this context, Euronext, remained mainly anchored in the red on Wednesday for lack of new carriers.
In fact, corn continues to deteriorate rapidly and carries wheat in its wake.
Wheat nonetheless managed to come back close to equilibrium at the end of the session, despite the pressure from corn prices.
Rapeseed, meantime, still gave way yesterday, even if the European balance sheet will remain largely in deficit over the next campaign.
The market, indeed, followed suit on Canadian canola where analysts welcome the return of long-awaited rains in Canada.
From a climatic point of view, in Europe the gradual return of the high pressure, is welcome after a month of May which will have proved to be rainy in the end and accompanied by temperatures well below the average for the season.
The month of June will be decisive for the qualitative aspects, while the overall cereal yields should be at levels deemed satisfactory at this stage.
Consequentially, new factors will be needed to significantly change prices, which seem to have regained a little stabilization, especially after the large profit and fund-taking in recent days.
From Black Sea basin, while a few weeks ago, we learned that Canada was contracting new crop rapeseed of Ukrainian origin, it is now Ukraine’s turn to import Australian canola at the end of the season. 64,500 tonnes were indeed unloaded at the beginning of the month in the port of Yuzhny.
This operation is a first motivated by the current low availability of sunflower and soybeans on the domestic market.
This volume is intended for a multi-oilseed plant which is thus making a transition from sunflower to rapeseed / canola earlier in the season than usual.
From Australia, bids pulled back again locally with the softer offshore futures combing with rains across parts of the east coast.
Basis values are holding ground in Victoria as much of the Mallee region is still searching for the next rain.
Some new crop grower selling liquidity was seen off the back of the rains but, by and large, the view is most of the grower sellers have fired their bullets thus far, reducing the size of the pie of willing sellers.
Old crop barley is the exception to the rule in Victoria where new exports sales prompted a renewed wave of bidding appetite for deliveries though till September.
WA wheat/barley spread has gone from discount $60/t to discount $35/t in last few weeks for new crop, creating a chance for growers with good establishment to participate in forward sales.
