Corn prices stumbled yesterday in Chicago, with neighboring contracts falling 5.5% at close.
Soybeans lost nearly 0.7%.
Meanwhile, some wheat contracts have fallen by as much as 1.7%.
On the macro markets, energy futures were slightly mixed, with crude oil posting fractional gains, while gasoline slowed slightly and diesel fell 0.4%.
Investors are basically in a holding model until the Fed makes some decisions, meanwhile, on Wall St., the Dow is down 81 points to 34,312 as investors await new economic signals.
The US dollar has softened moderately in the meantime.
Returning to the cereal market, corn saw a strong sell-off, in part spurred by pro-yield weather forecasts, in part by a slowdown in Chinese purchases.
In fact, there have been no further Chinese purchases so far this week.
Meanwhile, the statement released on the Chinese central government website discussing the negative impact of rising commodity prices and the need to secure supply, stabilize prices and drive market expectations weighed heavily. more and more.
The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) website also indicated that it will increase funding to farmers.
The progress of corn planting in the United States, meanwhile, jumped from 80% a week ago to 90% through Sunday, coming in slightly below the average trade estimate of 91%.
This year’s progress still exceeds 2020 (87%) and the previous five-year average of 80%.
The emergency is at 64%, against the previous five-year average of 54%.
Recent rains have optimized the growing conditions for the young maize crop.
Meanwhile, analyst Dr Michael Cordonnier has set the corn-growing area in the United States at between 93 and 94 million acres.
Michael Cordonnier, at the same time reduced the maize production in Brazil by another 2 million tons (Mt) to 95Mt.
Soybean prices, on the other hand, fell moderately to the downside due to rains that restored yields to the forecast and weakness in corn.
Soybean planting progress in the United States came in at 75% as of Sunday, up from 61% a week ago.
Even so, analysts thought the USDA number would grow by five points.
However, this spring’s progress is still far ahead of the 2020 pace of 63% and the previous five-year average of 54%.
The emergency is at 41%, far above the previous five-year average of 25%.
Against this backdrop, corn-based offers remained stable across much of the central United States, but were highly mixed in two inland river terminals.
Soybean offerings, on the other hand, were stable to mixed across the Midwest, dropping as much as 15 cents less in an Indiana transformer while stabilized by up to 4 cents more at a terminal in the Iowa River.
Wheat prices suffered mostly moderate losses, compared to corn and soybeans.
In fact, it was an oddly brave display of corn with corn brought to the sword.
Some support was certainly gained from the conditions of the Hard Red Spring crop which were predictably painful.
Additionally, Hard Red Winter gained support (did it drop less?) From excessive humidity.
Reports of striped rust and general quality issues due to wet cold conditions have issued some cautions about “chicken counting”.
Within the numbers, spring sowing progress in the United States reached 94% through Sunday, matching analysts’ estimates and improving from 85% last week.
This year’s pace is even faster than 2020 (78%) and the previous five-year average of 85%. Sixty-six percent of the crop has now emerged, which is even faster than the previous five-year average of 56 percent.
Only 45% of the harvest is rated in good to excellent condition, well below the average commercial estimate of 57%.
Winter wheat quality ratings also drop from 48% in good to excellent condition a week ago to 47% through Sunday.
Analysts had expected to see a two point rise.
Another 35% of the harvest is considered fair (up two points from last week), with the remaining 18% classified as poor or very poor (down one point from last week).
Physiologically, 67% of the harvest is now direct, up from 53% last week and slightly below the previous five-year average of 69%.
Also European market are still losing ground, partially still driven by the downturn in Chicago.
EU crop monitor MARS raised its forecast for European soft wheat yields by 0.8% between April and May to 5.81 t / ha, against 5.86 t / ha.
That would be 3.9% above the prior five-year average, if realized.
Meantime the European Commission reported that 2020/21 EU soft wheat exports are down 26% through May 23 stand at 23.7 million tonnes, against 32.06 last year to date.
Thanks to the recent precipitation, also the winter barley yield is estimated higer at 5.89 t / ha against 5.83 t / ha estimated last month.
Meantime the european barley exports stand at 6.94 million tonnes on April 23 against 6.96 last year to date.
EU crop monitor MARS estimates that European corn yield potential held steady between April and May, meantime, european corn imports stand at 13.09 million tonnes on April 23 against 18.49 last year to date, with a year-over-year decrease of 29%..
The rapeseed yield is estimated at 3.21 t / ha against 3.19 t / ha estimated last month.
European Union soybean imports during the 2020/21 marketing year have reached 496.4 million bushels through May 23, trending fractionally below last year’s pace so far.
To note that there are few activities on the physical market in France, as we approach the end of the 2020/2021 campaign and the availability of cereals is scarce.
To this must be added that the recent rains combined with low temperatures suggest a late 2021 harvest and therefore a tense situation during the lean season.
This tension on the physical market during the seasonal lean season is manifested mainly in corn with an almost historic price difference between the 2020 harvest and the 2021 harvest.
Despite the rebound in palm prices yesterday, rapeseed on Euronext gave way in the wake of soybeans and Canadian canola.
Meantime malaysian exporters have also reported a sharp slowdown in the country’s exports since mid-May as the rapid worsening of the health situation in India and South-East Asia has indeed sharply reduced global consumption of vegetable oil.
From Black Sea basin, as of yesterday, Russia sowed 40.5Mha of spring crops against 40.4 last year at the same date.
Russia has thus just made up for lost time despite a relatively cold spring and a slow start to operations.
Despite the upcoming taxes for wheat, the area established at the same time reached a new record with 10.7Mha planted or 85% of the planned area.
In addition, 6.5Mha of barley, 2.6Mha of corn, 7.9Mha of sunflower and 1.7Mha of soybeans were planted, ie 84%, 93%, 92% and 56% respectively of the intentions declared by the authorities.
From the Middle Kingdom, China has created a five-year plan that introduces price controls from 2021-25 that it hopes will address “abnormal fluctuations” seen in multiple commodities.
The government has indicated that guaranteeing food security for its 1.4 billion citizens is a top priority.
India’s 2021 wheat crop could reach record-breaking levels, according to the farm ministry.
The Indian Ministry of Agriculture, indeed, is optimistic about the next wheat harvest in its country with an estimated production of 108.75 million tonnes.
Rapeseed production is expected to be close to 10 million tonnes.
Total grain output is also expected to rewrite records this year, with an estimated 305.44 million metric tons.
From Australia, favorable weather could be setting the stage for a second consecutive bin-busting wheat crop.
Widespread rains have fallen throughout April and May in key production regions, but admittedly, the 2021 crop is still months from harvest.
Meantime the bids pushed lower and offers remained unchanged on new crop wheat markets yesterday and therefore we continued to see wide markets across the board and little trading activity.
Same went for barley values; markets across the country were steady with wide bid-offer spreads in the trade.
Canola markets east coast pulled back $10-15/t.
Current crop news is the same old story.
Wheat and barley continue to dribble out to meet nearby needs.
Aussie grain still remains export competitive with Philippines last week purchasing 25,000t of feed wheat from Australia, for late August at US$323/t CNF.
On the international scene, it should be noted that Japan issued a regular tender to purchase 124,620 t of food-quality wheat from the United States and Canada that closes later this week.
Of the total, 51% is expected to be sourced from the U.S.
The grain is for shipment in July.
Algeria issued an international tender to purchase 50,000 t of durum wheat that closes May 26, although the country often buys more than the nominal amount listed.
The grain is for shipment in July.
Tonigth we will see how the sessions close.
