Soybeans slumped on Chicago during yesterday’s session, showing the most downside.
In fact, they losed double digits, closing more than 1.25% lower.
Also red-hot wheat prices cooled, with a couple of exceptions, on some profit-taking after rising substantially higher in recent sessions.
Corn prices, in contrast, were mixed, as immediate supply and demand fundamentals kept May futures red-hot, while pressure from profit-taking caused small losses for July futures.
On macro markets, investors will be paying close attention to corporate earnings reports from Alphabet, Microsoft, AMD and others, which drop after the closing bell yesterday.
US FOMC meeting statements are due out late tonight, with most expecting to see little change but perhaps more indications about future tapering after the recent improved economic outlook.
Crude oil has jumped a buck after indications from the OPEC + meeting that that they’re confident in a global demand recovery (and will be continuing to ramp up production….).
Consequently, energy prices moved moderately higher, with crude oil rising more than 1.5%.
Diesel was also up around 1.5%.
Gasoline faced gains of more than 2%.
Meantime, soyoil contracts are at the highest levels since 2008.
Rising soyoil costs have caused a spike in U.S. renewable fuel credits, which reached record-breaking levels yesterday.
Biomass (D4) credits rose 6 cents to $1.58 apiece, with renewable fuel (D6) credits also tracking 6 cents higher to $1.50 each.
On Wall St., the Dow tested modest gains with 3 points higer, trading to 33,984.
The U.S. Dollar, meantime, firmed slightly.
Coming back on grains market, corn plantings reached 17% through April 25, up from 8% a week ago and in line with analyst expectations.
Planting speed is still slow relative to recent years, with the prior five-year average at 20% through the first three and a half weeks of April.
However, both soybean and corn plantings are progressing strongly,
Corn’s emergence is at 3%, versus the prior five-year average of 4%.
Soybean plantings were in line with analyst expectations, moving from 3% a week ago up to 8% through Sunday.
That’s three points ahead of the prior five-year average of 5%. Mississippi (37%), Arkansas (26%) and Illinois (18%) have made the most inroads among the top 18 production states so far.
Spring wheat planting progress moved from 19% a week ago to 28% completion through Sunday, matching analyst expectations.
Among the top six production states, Washington has made the most progress, at 80%.
Minnesota sitson the lower end of the spectrum, with 19% of that state’s crop now in the ground.
Seven percent of this year’s crop is emerged.
For winter wheat, 17% of the crop is now headed, jumping from 10% a week ago but remaining moderately behind the prior five-year average of 23%.
Only eight of the top 18 production states have seen any measurable movement into this maturity category for now.
Quality-wise, winter wheat crop ratings dropped four points in the past week, with 49% now rated in good-to-excellent condition.
Analysts were expecting to see a one-point deduction, in contrast. Another 32% of the crop is rated fair (up two points from last week), with the remaining 19% rated poor or very poor (also up two points from a week ago).
Consequently, corn basis bids were mostly steady to slightly mixed, while most of soybean basis bids dipped 2 cents lower.
Canada’s StatsCan was out with their updated acreage ideas based on survey data in March.
They pencilled wheat area down 7pc year-on-year with cuts to spring wheat, not durum.
Wheat plantings of all varieties, indeed, are estimated at 23.3 million acres, a decrease of 640 kha compared to 2020 and the lowest areas recorded since the 2017/18 season.
The Statcan report published yesterday on Canada also shows an estimate of canola plantings of 21.5 million acres, admittedly up + 3.6% compared to last year, but below expectations even if the highest since the 18/19 season.
Planting increases are likely also for barley (+13.9%).
Extended run weather maps are starting to add a little bit of moisture for Brazilian safrinha corn areas, but it’s still dry across the maps this week and crop stress is a going concern.
Meantime, Brazil’s Anec is less optimistic about the country’s soybean exports for April, lowering its prior forecast from a week ago by 5.5% to 579.8 million bushels.
That would still represent a monthly record, if realized.
Also on the European market, grains seem to have took a pause in their meteoric rise, after reaching highs since 2012/2013.
The EU’s MARS crop reporting agency updated their crop assessments there, not seeing a significant impact from the earlier cold snaps that spooked markets.
However, European grains resisted pressure from Chicago and profit-taking Tuesday night to amplify moderatly their gains, on both the old and the next harvest.
Rapeseed, on the other hand, suffered losses after the announcement of an increase in Canadian acreage this year.
Consequently, rapeseed prices for the new harvest also ended in the red at the end of the session.
From Black Sea basin, Ukraine continues to actively export its cereals this April.
Thus between April 1 and April 26, more than 2.25 Mt of cereals were loaded including 1.85 Mt of corn, 0.4 Mt of wheat and only 20 Kt of barley, the availability of which is exhausted.
Remember that during the month of March, 2.6 Mt of corn, 0.7 Mt of wheat and 130 Kt of barley were respectively shipped.
The sharp rise in prices is stimulating transactions on the physical market on the eve of Orthodox Easter.
The Black Sea markets will also be closed next Monday and Tuesday.
Aussie local markets finally kicked into gear yesterday, with both track and delivered port markets firmer across the country and volumes picking up for wheat.
The barley also finally caught some more of a bid.
BOM outlooks are firming the chances of moisture, with the latest model runs pushing 15-20 mm for most of the WA wheat belt and 10-15mm for more eastern cropping areas in NSW / VIC as we head into the weekend.
On the international trade scenario, private exporters announced to USDA the sale of 3.7 million bushels of corn to unknown destinations.
Half of the grain is for delivery during the current marketing year, which began September 1, with the other half for delivery in 2021/22.
South Korean processors purchased just under 2.0 million bushels of corn, likely sourced from Ukraine, in a private deal that recently closed.
The grain is for arrival around July 20.
Taiwan issued an international tender to purchase up to 2.6 million bushels of animal feed corn, sourced from the United States, South America or South Africa.
The tender closes on Wednesday, and the grain is for shipment between early July and early August.
U.S. meat processor Perdue purchased more than 1.1 million bushels of soybeans from Brazil to shore up its supply needs, per recent data from shipping agency Cargonave.
The grain will be shipped on May 9.
This had caught news headlines, as the strong domestic basis in the US providing an opening for arbitrage for a shipment there.
This sale, indeed, had made market chatter earlier in the month, but unlike export sales reporting in the US there’s no public confirmation on import figures until logistics hit.
Egypt’s GASC tender saw them cancel, citing “high prices”.
The cheapest offers, noting that it’s new crop wheat, were from Romania in the high $ 280s per tonne range C&F.
The cheapest Russian offer was in the mid $ 290s.
There’s chatter going around about when they’ll return and whether they’ll see any cheaper offers the next go round given the global rally.
Algeria is closing its call for tenders today with, as usual, a volume that will be contracted without communication.
Tonight we will see how the sessions close.
