US grain prices were mixed Tuesday.
Soybean gained around 0.4%.
Corn followed suit, rising around 0.1%.
Kansas wheat on the contrary fell around 1,3%, Chicago wheat faded moderately lossing 0,4%, while Minneapolis wheat prices on firmed around 0.5%.
Stimulus funds are continuing to flow out across the US, with strong growth figures expected – IMF comments last night forecasting a 6.4% overall growth.
Still, global economic concerns remain in place with ongoing lockdowns and delayed vaccine rollouts a going concern and red flag about broader recoveries.
In this context, energy futures moved back into the green, with crude oil up more than 1%.
Diesel saw similar gains, and gasoline up around 0.25%.
On Wall St., on the contrary, the rally of earlier this month took a small breather, with the Dow sinking 97 points to 33,430.
Going back to grains market, the USDA WASDE April report will be released this Friday.
This will be the last purely old crop S&D, with their first official 2021/22 figures coming in the May report.
The first set of surveyed estimates for this coming WASDE report are coming in slightly under 1.4 bbu on corn, down from March’s 1.5 bbu.
If these forecasts are accurate, the cut to ending stocks will be the biggest in almost a decade.
In add, someone are expecting also some cuts to South American row crops after the weather conditions of past weeks.
In the safrinha area indeed, (despite the massive pre-plant rains) – maps are still relatively dry across the two-week outlooks and one private estimate out the other day was already some 5 million tonnes (Mt) lower than govt figures there.
Wheat stocks ideas at 0.85 bbu and beans at 118 mbu are more constant from the March report.
Consequently, soybean price on its hand continued to find a forward momentum, with the focus still mainly on historically tight domestic stocks and the possibility that lower-than-expected U.S. acres will be planted later this spring.
Meantime, however, brazilian consultancy Agroconsult has given the most bullish soybean production estimates to-date, predicting a record-breaking haul of 5.038 billion bushels.
If Agroconsult’s prediction is on the mark, it will represent an 8.5% rise over last year’s harvest.
More wet weather will be rolling through the Midwest and Plains later this week, with some areas likely to see 2” or more, between Wednesday and Saturday, forecasting good growing conditions for next wheat crops.
On European market, grains continued to correct sharply downwards while rapeseed recovered sharply.
European corn was penalized by climatic improvements across the Atlantic.
Favorable weather for the Argentinian harvests weighed heavily on the trend.
Favorable conditions in the American Corn Belt was also observed.
In contrast, rapeseed remained driven by soybeans, as well as by a further jump in crude prices.
In add, Strategie Grains has also cut its 2021 European rapeseed production estimate by 205 kt, to 16.8 Mt.
The current low temperatures, indeed, are causing concern regard to rapeseed crops, which are already weakened.
This generated a new significant upward movement in this oilseed, also supported by the firmness of the palm.
Per the latest data from the European Commission, EU corn imports for the 2020/21 marketing year are tracking 27% below last year’s pace after reaching 11.83 million tonnes against 16.22 million last year to date.
European Union soybean imports during the 2020/21 marketing year have reached 411.5 million bushels through April 4, which is trending slightly above last year’s pace so far.
EU canola imports are also higher compared to a year ago, with 5.25 million tonnes against 4.93 last year to date.while EU soymeal imports are moderately lower year-over-year.
European Union soft wheat exports for the 2020/21 marketing year have reached 20.26 million tonnes against 26.33 million last year to date, which is trending 23% below last year’s pace so far.
EU barley exports are holding a slim deficit compared to a year ago, meantime, with 5.92 million tonnes against 5.96 million last year to date.
From Black Sea basin, we have seen how Russia standed out in the context of the GASC tender which now covers new campaign loads despite the vagueness that still remains as to the level of export taxes that will be retained for these loads.
The loads will be carried out during the first ten days of August.
In CIF basis, the contracted price painfully down to $ 250, against $ 300 during the previous tender of March 11, which admittedly concerned old harvest loads.
Aussie markets started off the post-Easter week a touch firmer with prompt demand for wheat/barley on the east coast for both domestic and export even if we have seen ASX wheat May contract down $6/t to $280/t while ASX wheat January 2022 up $1/t to $291/t.
New season canola markets continue to firm with the higher global moves, with acreage ideas trending higher, although reports of seed shortages are also in play restricting some late expansions.
On the international trade scenario, South Korea purchased around 440,000 bushels of GMO-free soybeans in an international tender that closed last Friday.
The grain is for arrival between June 15 and September 20.
For the twelfth time this year, China has sold a large amount of its state wheat reserves at auction.
Yesterday’s sale was for 58.4 million bushels, which was 39.5% of the total amount available for purchase.
Egypt’s state grains buyer has purchased 12.7 million bushels of wheat from Russia and Ukraine around at $252 C&F, low $230s FOB, in an international tender that recently closed.
The grain is for shipment in early August.
Thailand importers issued an international tender to purchase up to 18.5 million bushels of animal feed wheat, with offers to be submitted by April 7.
The grain is comprised of eight consignments that will be shipped between May and December.
Taiwan issued an international tender to purchase 3.5 million bushels of grade 1 milling wheat sourced from the United States, which closes April 8. The grain is for shipment between late May and late June.
Ethiopia issued an international tender to purchase 1.1 million bushels of milling wheat that closes April 15.
Additional details were not immediately available.
Algeria looking for wheat, is tendering for April-May deliveries.
Tonight we will see how the sessions close.